Man, am I good at this.
Now that we are a quarter of the way through the season, I’d like to take a snap shot on the success I’ve had this fantasy football season. There’s two distinct ways in which I’d like to measure my success. First is the most obvious: how well my fantasy football teams are performing. Second, is my nonpareil ability to project weekly fantasy scoring. Nonpareil, without peer, having no match, unrivaled.
I’m participating in twenty-four fantasy football league. I would have been in more leagues, but my wife booked us on a week-long vacation during the all-important third week of the NFL pre-season. So that’s my excuse for why I was in twenty-eight leagues last year, but “only” twenty-four this year. Next year, I’ll try for fifty or one hundred, but I’m sure my wife will drag me somewhere again, which will encumber my ability to draft as many teams as possible.
Wait, what? I was in twenty-eight leagues last year? Yeah.
I’m that kind of geek. How did I do last year?
2012 Fantasy Football Draft Matrix Teams Finished:
• First in Scoring 29% of the Time Compared to the 10% Average
• In the Top 2 in Scoring 46% of the Time Compared to the 20% Average
• In the Top 3 in Scoring 57% of the Time Compared to the 30% Average
• In the Top 4 in Scoring 71% of the Time Compared to the 40% Average
2012 Fantasy Football Draft Matrix Teams Improved the times:
• They Led the League in Scoring by 190%
• They Finished in the Top 2 in Scoring by 130%
• They Finished in the Top 3 in Scoring by 90%
• They Finished in the Top 4 in Scoring by 77.5%
Overall 2012 Fantasy Football Draft Matrix Results:
• 7 Points Per Game BETTER THAN THE FIELD!
So yeah, I did pretty well last year. Check out http://www.fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com for more information.
But how are things going this year? Well, again, let’s look at this from two perspectives: How my teams are doing, and how accurate are my weekly projections.
Let’s start with the success of my twenty-four fantasy football teams this year (2013).
12 of my 24 teams are averaging 100 points per game (PPG) or more. Teams that score 100 points or more in a given week win their game 85% of the time. Of course, I have bad luck, so when I score 100 points or more, my winning percentage is “only” 83%. Only.
If the season ended today, 15 of my 24 teams would qualify for the playoffs. That’s 63%. Only 40% of fantasy football teams qualify for the playoffs. When a success rate improves from 40% to 63%, that’s a 58% improvement. You can do the math for yourself at percentagecalculator.net.
20 of my 24 teams have a .500 winning percentage or better.
3 wins and 1 loss is the record that my teams possess more often than any other win-loss record.
I have no last place teams. None.
- My teams did post a combined losing record in week one. However, my win/loss percentage is 69% in weeks two through four.
So that’s that. I’m winning a lot of fantasy football games, bottom line. Why am I winning? It all comes down to two simple questions: Who should you draft, and who should you start? First, I use the http://www.fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com to build my teams in the draft. Then, I use my own player projections to determine my starters. My weekly projections are the most accurate in the industry. More accurate than Yahoo.com. More accurate than NFL.com. More accurate than ESPN.com. And I have the numbers to prove it.
What do I mean by “more accurate?” For starters, I don’t just rank the players each week; I actually project how many points I think they will score. I compare that number to their actual fantasy output. Long story short, my projections are off by a smaller margin than my competitors on average. More specifically:
In week one, my projections at every position were more accurate than NFL.com and ESPN.com. My projections at WR, TE, K, and DEF were more accurate than Yahoo.com
In week two, I again owned NFL.com, by out-projecting them at every fantasy position. My projections were more accurate than ESPN’s at the QB, RB, K, and DEF positions. Yahoo had my number in week two, gotta admit. My projections were more accurate than Yahoo’s at RB and K only. It’s the only time all season that a competitor was more accurate at more positions.
In week three, I tied with Yahoo by having more accurate projections at RB, TE, and DEF (while they were better at QB, QE, and K). I was more accurate than NFL at RB, WR, TE, and K. My projections compared very favorably versus ESPN, as I was more accurate at every position except QB.
Week four was my best effort yet. My projections were superior at every position against all platforms with only two exceptions. Yahoo and ESPN both had more accurate QB numbers, but that was it.
To what do I attribute my success and accuracy? For starters, I watch every snap of every pre-season game. Then, as a retired financial planner, I use statistic and probability to help assess each players potential output.
So, as we enter then second quarter of the season, it may be too late to salvage your draft, but you can still put yourself in the best position to win by accessing the best projections found on this site to determine your starting lineup.
For more information visit: http://www.fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com