Week 6 Results

“I’m not conceited.  Conceit is a fault and I have no faults.”

-David Lee Roth

Teams using the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix (fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com) won 67% of their games in week six.  58% scored 100 points or more, and the average output was 102 points.  Remember the winning percentage for teams that score 100 points in a given week is 85%!

Now, when I say my projections were more accurate than this site or that site at this position or that position, I may not be clear on what that means exactly.  So, just to be clear, let me explain what I mean by “more accurate.”  Each week, I project the highest scoring players at each recognized fantasy football position according to the following break down:

  • 25 QB’S
  • 40 RB’S
  • 40 WR’S
  • 15 TE’S
  • 15 K’S
  • 15 DEF

Because, honestly… do you really need to know anything beyond that?  Do you really need to know what the 23rd ranked kicker is likely to score in a given week?  So I figure this breakdown is fair and thorough, and will give fantasy football players a realistic insight regarding the players they should start or sit.  If you don’t have a QB that’s among the top 25 in the league, you might want to take a dip in the free agency pool.  Philip Rivers is still out there.

My projections were off the charts this week.  But before I get into the statistic breakdown of my dominance over the forecasting competition, here’s a couple of head-scratching observations about the other guys.

NFL.com should really go by WTF.com, because I don’t know how you justify projecting Gronkowski would score 13.6 (when he was inactive), Glennon would score ZERO (as a starting QB, he scored 19.92 points, finishing 8th amongst all QB’s), and Brandon Marshall projected as the 58th best WR prospect in week 6.  Marshall– green shoes and all– scored over 20 points and was the second highest scoring receiver.

Going back to Glennon for a second, he actually out-scored Rodgers, Brees, and Manning.  No one saw that coming, but I knew that he’d score at least ONE point.  

Yahoo had Pierre Garcon projected as the 3rd highest scoring WR.  He finished 35th.

ESPN placed Torrey Smith as the second highest projected receiver, but Josh Gordon at 50th!  Over the last four weeks, Gordon has averaged the 5th most points amongst all WR’s.  

So again, I publish my projections here on this site every Thursday (in time for the Thursday night game) and update the projections frequently before the Sunday afternoon kickoff.  I take the difference between my projections and the players actual output and compare the average difference versus NFL.com, Yahoo.com, and ESPN.com.  The smaller the discrepancy, the more accurate the projections.  

Here’s how my week 6 projections fared:

  • More accurate than Yahoo at RB, WR, TE, and DEF.
  • More accurate than NFL at QB, RB, WR, TE, and DEF.
  • More accurate than ESPN at QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and DEF.

For more information, visit http://www.fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com

 

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