Mid-Season Update

Ok, so I know that weeks 9 and 10 are in the books, but I wanted to check in to report on my success at the official halfway point of the season through week 8.  As usual, I’ll be analyzing my success on two fronts: how my teams are performing (win/loss, ppg, etc.), and the accuracy of my weekly projections.

So, how are my teams doing?  First, let me say that I have 24 fantasy football teams across Yahoo.com, NFL.com, and ESPN.com.  I would have had more teams to test the fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com if not for my wife forcing to go on vacation for a week at the end of August.  And by “vacation”, I mean a week with HER family.  Not the best use of my time.

But my teams are doing extremely well.  I was in 28 leagues last year, and I’m getting virtually identical results.  Cue the bullet-points:

  • As of week 8, 17 of 24 teams would qualify for the playoffs if the regular season was to end at week 8.  That’s 71% of teams that used the fantasyfootballdraftmatrix to draft and teams using the projections at https://fantasyfootballplayoffsguaranteed.wordpress.com to set their lineups.  Keep in mind, only 40% of teams make the playoffs.  So, when 40% improves to 71%, that’s a 78% increase!  Again, if you use our draft method, and set your lineups based on our projections, you will improve your chances of making the playoffs by 78% (as of week 8)

  • 22 out of 24 teams are .500 or better.  Good lord, that’s 92%.  Think about it…92% of the teams using our process are winning at least half their games and are in the playoff hunt.  Teams that use the fantasyfootballdraftmatrix and use the projections at https://fantasyfootballplayoffsguaranteed.wordpress.com are .500 or better 92% of the time.

  • Sadly, 2 of 24 teams using our process have a losing record.  Thats 8%.  Single-digit number eight.

  • There are no teams in last place in their league.

  • There are no teams in second-to-last place in their league.

  • 6 of 24 teams (25%) are in first place for their league.  That’s a 150% increase over the 1-in-10 odds!

  • 9 of 24 teams (38%) are in the first or second place in their league.  That’s a 90% increase!

  • 14 of 24 teams (58%) are in third place or better in their league.  That’s a 93% increase!

  • 17 of 24 teams (71%) are in forth place or better.  But you already knew that.

  • 19 of 24 teams (79%) are in fifth place or better.

  • 88% of the teams average 90 points per game or better.  The winning percentage of teams that score 90-99 ppg is 59%, which will qualify you for the playoffs more often than not.

In the words of Darth Vader, “Impressive… most impressive.”

Ok, and then there is the analysis of our weekly projections here at Broadway Fantasy Football…

When it comes to projecting the accuracy on a week-to-week basis of ONLY quarterbacks in the NFL… YAHOO ABSOLUTELY SCHOOLS ME.  This year, and this year only, they have been more accurate each and every week  at projecting the points that the top 25 QB’s would score.  Gotta admit it.  Kudos, baby.  

Okay, so one platform smokes me every week at ONE OF SIX fantasy football positions. Let’s look at how I do against Yahoo at the other five positions.  Again,Yahoo beats me 8 weeks to zip at the QB position (because they were more accurate than me during each of the first 8 weeks of the season).  Looking at the other five positions (RB, WR, TE, K, and DEF), my combined weekly projections were more accurate by a margin of 22-18.  That’s a little closer than I would like, but still superior.  So, if you’re in a yahoo league, by all means, determine your starting QB based on Yahoo’s projections.  Then click over to https://fantasyfootballplayoffsguaranteed.wordpress.com for every other posish (and yes, I had to look up the Tenacious D lyrics to figure out how to spell posish).

This brings me to good ol’ NFL.com.  Me and my projections vs the actual league.  A little simple math… 6 fantasy positions per week times 8 weeks… that’s 48.  Every week, I make my projections before the games are played.  And every week, NFL.com makes their projections before the games are played.  I take the average difference from my projection for each player from their actual output.  I take the average difference from NFL.com’s projection for each player from their actual output.  For example, let’s say I project Adrian Peterson will score 15 points, but he actually scores 20.  The difference is five (the absolute value of 15 minus 20).  But let’s say, NFL.com projects Adrian Peterson will score 30 points, but as previously mentioned in this hypothetical example, he only scored 20.  The difference for NFL.com is 10 (30 minus 20).  I was off by 5, NFL was off by 10.  I was more accurate in this example.  I continue this comparison of projections vs performance across 150 total players

  • 25 QB’s
  • 40 RB’s
  • 40 WR’s
  • 15 TE’s
  • 15 K’s
  • 15 DEF’s 

Wait, wasn’t I supposed to tell you how I fared against the league?  Again, 6 positions per week over 8 weeks gives me 48 opportunities to out-project my competition.  Midway through the season, I’ve out-projected NFL by a score of 45-3.  Cue the bullet-points:

  • More accurate QB, K, and DEF projections in 7 of 8 weeks.

  • More accurate RB, WR, and TE projections in 8 of 8 weeks.

  • I swept NFL.com by out projecting them at every position during weeks 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, and 8.

Ouch.  This is what happens to you, NFL.com, when you project Marques Colston will score 22.2 points in week six.  Dude was averaging 7.46 points per game.  In week six, he scored a personal season-low 1.1 points.

ESPN.com does a little better than NFL.  Im sure by now you know the criteria: I compare the accuracy my projections at each position each week against Yahoo, NFL, and ESPN.  Six positions through eight weeks… 48 comparisons.  Scoreboard reads Steve Broadway 40, ESPN 8.  

Big picture now: there are 6 fantasy football positions, over 8 weeks, compared against 3 competitors.  6x8x3=144.  My projections have been more accurate in 107 of those 144 comparisons.  That’s a 74% success rate.

There’s also a second method I’ve used to determine the most accurate fantasy football projection service.  As opposed to one-to-one position comparisons, this evaluation tool ranks the sites from most-to-least accurate at each position each week.  Does that make sense?  In other words, the first method would compare this site versus Yahoo at the QB position, for example, and the smaller margin of error essentially gets one point.  This second technique compares all four sites at the same time and ranks them in terms of accuracy.  So here’s how it looked after week one:

 

QB

RB

WR

TE

K

DEF

SB

2

2

1

2

1

1

YAHOO

1

1

2

1

2

3

NFL

4

4

4

4

4

4

ESPN

3

3

3

3

3

2

So, in week one, Yahoo had the most accurate QB projections, I had the second most accurate, ESPN came in third, and NFL forth.  As you can see these rankings are carried out across each position.  Then we add the rankings and/or take the average.  In this instance, my score was 9 (2+2+1+2+1+1).  Yahoo’s score was 10, NFL posted 24, and ESPN produced 17.  Like golf, the low score wins.  After carrying out this same process through week 8, here are the standings based on average ranking:

TOTAL

AVERAGE

Broadway

1.6875

Yahoo

1.83333333333333

ESPN

3.02083333333333

NFL

3.45833333333333

 

As for you, Yahoo, and your QB’s projections… I’ve identified the issue.  I compare my projections against NFL.com actual scoring, which is difference than the way Yahoo scores their QB stats.  NFL subtracts 2 points for INTs, Yahoo only subtracts 1.  I will continue to compare my projections against NFL.com’s actual point totals, but I’ll be sure to factor in this revelation.  

 

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