Anatomy of a Decision

I have a clear weakness at WR on one of my 24 fantasy teams.  Going into week 12, I was projected to start Josh Gordon, Emmanuel Sanders and Harry Douglas.  Probably not a lot of double-digit producers there.  Probably won’t be seeing them in Honolulu in February.  Probably won’t be seeing their bust in Canton in twenty years.  You probably stopped reading two sentences ago.

Here is a combination of several concepts explained in the fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com e-book that show how I use financial planning methods and statistics to help with decision-making.

Josh Gordon is a keeper.  But I’m convinced I can possibly do better than Sanders and Douglas…

E.SANDERS H.DOUGLAS J.BOYKIN A.DOBSON
PTS LAST 4 WEEKS 16.8 12.1 8.9 3.4
9.8 8.2 1.5 12
3.8 2.9 11.2 25
0.2 19.4 9.1 3.8
LAST 4 AVERAGE 7.65 10.65 7.675 11.05
STD 7.27255113423068 6.94574210098052 4.24607662044229 10.1092367004966
TARGETS LAST 4 11 18 6 7
11 5 1 5
6 8 13 9
2 9 8 7
AVG TARGETS 7.5 10 7 7
STD 4.35889894354067 5.59761854124889 4.96655480858378 1.63299316185545
pts rating=ppg/std
bigger is better
1.05190047602316 1.53331348114646 1.80755099025993 1.09305977566607
tgs rating=tgs/std
bigger is better
1.72061800402921 1.78647400252624 1.40942771594945 4.28660704987056
pts raitng + tgs rating
 OVERALL 2.77251848005237 3.3197874836727 3.21697870620938  

5.37966682553663

 

That’s a lot of numbers, I know, but let me explain.  First I look at the production over the four players I’m considering (E.Sanders, H.Douglas, J.Boykin, A.Dobson).  This gives me a sense of if a player is trending up or down recently.  I don’t factor that in mathematically, but I keep it in mind as a tie-breaker.

The first mathematical component for this decision-making process is to produce a points rating.  This is determined by dividing the average ppg over that past four weeks by the standard deviation over this time.  Standard deviation has it’s own formula that I compute on a spreadsheet, and it measures consistency.  A smaller standard deviation means more consistency.  Obviously, the most desirable WR is one who scores a lot of points consistently.

I also like to factor in targets, and I give this equal weight to the points rating.  It’s calculated the same way, too: average targets over the last four weeks divided by standard deviation of the targets.

Adding these two numbers (ppg rating + target rating), I get an overall evaluation.  Douglas and Dobson are my men.

Here’s the formula: overall = (ppg/ppgstdev) + (avg target/targetstdev)

This ensures that I’m going with players that score the most, score consistently, get the most targets, and gets targets consistently.  Make sense?

 

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