5/5/14 Does It Matter Where You Draft?

Posted: May 1, 2014 in News, Opinion, Analysis
Tags: , ,

 

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image courtesy of stewart miles/freedigitalphotos.net

Des Moines?  Chile?  Turkey?  Greece?

This article isn’t about where you physically are located (although my dad’s garage was the best) when you are drafting, or even what website is hosting your draft.  The computer tells you what number they picked out of the hat, and there you are… fate decided.  And it’s amazing how the first rounds pretty much ALWAYS unfold the same way in league after league.  In 2013, it was pretty much, for the most part, usually, more often than not, and pretty much for the most part usually more often than not…(in order) PETERSON, FOSTER, LYNCH, RICE, MARTIN, CHARLES, SPILLER, MCCOY, JOHNSON, RICHARDSON.  Consider:

  • In the 24 leagues in which the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix© was tested in 2013, only 12 players were drafted 10+ times.
  • Adrian Peterson was drafted first overall in 22 of 24 leagues.
  • Doug Martin (oops) was drafted 2nd through 6th in 19 of 24 leagues.  I only took him 3 times, proud to say.  Because I knew better.
  • Arian Foster was drafted fourth or higher in 21 of 24 leagues.
  • Marshawn Lynch was drafted between 2nd and 6th in 20 of 24 leagues.
  • Calvin Johnson was drafted at the 5th spot or later in 14 of 24 leagues.
  • Ray Rice went between 6th and 10th in 17 of 24 leagues.

Cool stuff, and I could keep going, but I hope my point is well-taken.  The point is, I’ve been killing myself trying to illustrate that my pre-season projections are so much more accurate than the experts, but the truth is, the advantage is minimal at best.  And Yahoo’s QB projections were routinely better than mine from preseason throughout the regular season.  Fact.  My projections at the other positions were superior.  Just sayin’.

So, therefore, in a world were there isn’t a whole heck of a lot of difference from one draft cheat sheet to the next, how do you gain an advantage?  Generally, you have to have a better draft strategy than the other guys.  Specifically, you need a draft strategy that is proven to produce teams that will score 100+ points per week on average (assuming 9 starting fantasy players.)

But strategy aside, doesn’t the guy who gets the first pick overall usually win, and the guy with the tenth pick in the first round usually lose?  Yes and no.

No, literally, my answers to those questions are “yes” and “no”.

 where you draft

As per the chart above based on the over 50 leagues in which the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix© was tested since 2012, the first pick overall does yield the team that leads their league in scoring the most often.  But, the team picking 8th is the league-leading scorer more often than the 2nd overall picking team.  And the team picking 10th is the leading scorer more often than any team picking 3rd-7th. It seems that the mid-first round region is where teams tend to struggle, but I can show you how I’ve overcome the 4th-through-7th pick funk.

Bottom line time.  The first overall pick is an advantage.  But not having the first overall selection is hardly a condemnation to ineptitude.  Let me show you how I’ve had the 8th, 9th, and 10th picks in the first round and STILL led the league in scoring.

What are your thoughts on draft position as it relates to fantasy success?  Do you have a strategy for excelling when you pick in the middle of the first round?  What’s your move when you have the last pick in the first?

Order Fantasy Football Playoffs Guaranteed today.  It comes with a DOUBLE your money back guarantee… if you buy the book or dvd, use the fantasy football draft matrix to draft your team, and use the projections found on this site to set your lineups every week, I guarantee you will make the playoffs, or DOUBLE your money back! – Steve Broadway, Author Fantasy Football Playoffs Guaranteed

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