5/8/14 2013 Year In Review: or How to Make the Finals 50% of the Time.

Posted: May 8, 2014 in News, Opinion, Analysis, Results
Tags: ,

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Remember the way your dad’s garage smelled?

Slow down.  Take a moment.  Close your eyes for ten seconds.  Breathe.  Remember?

To me, that’s the smell of fantasy football.  That’s where I hosted fantasy football drafts for about a decade from the mid- 1980’s through the 1990’s.

Yeah, I live for this.  I was in 28 leagues last year.  I was in “only” 24 leagues this year because my wife dragged me away for a week to be with the in-laws during the last week of August.  Let’s just say, I’ve made it clear that such a “distraction” from my life’s work won’t happen again.  And oh yeah, I do watch every snap of every pre-season game.

I participate mostly in 10-team leagues, where 4 teams make the playoffs, no PPR, no IDP.

Again, I was in 24 leagues across Yahoo, NFL, and ESPN.  And here’s how my 24 teams performed in 2013:

  • 18 of my 24 teams made the playoffs (finished in the top 4).
  • 12 of my 24 teams went to the finals.
  • 6 of my 24 teams WON the finals.

I don’t know if that sounds impressive or not, but let me show you what the percentages tell me:

  • In a world where only 40% of all teams make the playoffs, 75% of my teams qualified.  My teams made the playoffs 87.5% more often than the field.  Feel free to verify that number here.  Be sure to fill out the fields that say “What is the percentage increase from ____ to ____?”
  • 50% of my teams went to the finals.  That’s 150% better than the field.
  • 25% of my teams won the finals.  That’s also 150% better than the field.

My Fantasy Football Draft Matrix and my weekly projections found on this blog tell me who to draft and who to start more accurately than the paid experts as Yahoo, NFL, and ESPN.  It’s that simple.  This blog details how my weekly projections were more accurate than the other guys.

See, I’ve been playing fantasy football since 1987, and since then, have been developing my methods of draft strategies and weekly starting lineup projects.  I call my draft method, the “Fantasy Football Draft Matrix.”  I call my projections… “projections.”  My accuracy routinely outpaces my competition at Yahoo.com, NFL.com, and ESPN.com.

Here’s a few interesting notes that I think really illustrate the success of my drafting and projection methods, and why you should check out Fantasy Football Draft Matrix for a product offers a double-your-money back guarantee if you don’t make the playoffs in your first year using my techniques.  Try requesting a refund from pharmacy where you bought your fantasy football magazines last year because you didn’t make the playoffs.  Let me know how that goes.

  • The top three fantasy QB’s in 2014 according to overall points on NFL.com were Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Cam Newton.
  • The top three fantasy RB’s in 2014 according to overall points on NFL.com were Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, and Matt Forte.
  • The top three fantasy WR’s in 2014 according to overall points on NFL.com were Josh Gordon, DeMaryius Thomas, and Calvin Johnson.
  • The top three fantasy TE’s in 2014 according to overall points on NFL.com were Jimmy Graham, Vernon Davis, and Julius Thomas.
  • The top three fantasy K’s in 2014 according to overall points on NFL.com were Stephen Gostkowski, Matt Prater,  and Justin Tucker.
  • The top three fantasy DEF’s in 2014 according to overall points on NFL.com were Kansas City, Seattle, and Carolina.

Here’s where I’m going with this.  All these elite fantasy studs… I hardly had any of them on my teams.

  • I drafted Peyton Manning once, Drew Brees 4 times (out of 24), and Cam Newton ZERO times.
  • I drafted Jamaal Charles twice.  I drafted McCoy and Forte ZERO times.
  • However, I did draft Josh Gordon 9 times (big time late round value).  I never drafted Calvin Johnson, but I did draft DeMaryius Thomas twice.
  • I also drafted Jimmy Graham 7 times.  I never selected Vernon Davis nor Julius Thomas (though I picked him up in a few leagues on free agency.)
  • Gostkowski? 3 times.  Prater?  Once.  Tucker?  Zilch.
  • Kansas City’s Defense?  Nope.  Seattle, oh I just drafted them 12 times.  Not a typo.

Now, I definitely picked up a few of these guys through free agency, and I even pulled off a trade for Calvin Johnson (I gave up Reggie Bush).  But it wasn’t like I was routinely drafting teams loaded with top three players at each position.  However, in fantasy football, sometimes it’s more about who you DON’T draft.  My lineups are typically solid from top to bottom, where consistency and production are equally valued, and measures are taken to prepare for a first round bust.

  • Arguably, Doug Martin was the biggest bust at RB due in large part to an injury, which is not his fault, but still, If you took him in the first round, you were hurting.  I only took him in 3 out of 24 leagues (12.5%)
  • NFL.com Colin Kaepernick’s Average Draft Postion at 42, and Robert Griffin III at 49, essentially putting them in the top 8 among QB prospects.  Well, I drafted Griffin twice (8%) and Kaepernick once (4%)
  • However, when Frank Gore, and LeVeon Bell and Eddie Lacy are your RB2’s on 16 of 24 teams (67%), that’s some serious value which is what gets you over the top when everyone in your league is basically working off the same cheat sheet.

CHUCK YOUR CHEAT SHEET!

I’m not going to give away all my secrets here.  For that, you’ll have to check out the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix.  But here’s a few more facts and figures that will illustrate the consistency with which my fantasy teams dominate the competition:

  • 11 of my 24 teams averaged 100+ points per game.  That’s 46%.  Teams that score 100 points in a given week win 85% of the time.
  • 22 of my 24 teams averaged 90-99 points per game (92%).  Teams that score 90-99 points in a given week win 59% of the time.
  • 21 of my 24 teams had a winning percentage of .500 or better (88%)
  • 8 of my 24 teams led their league in scoring (33%)
  • 17 of my 24 teams finished in the top 3 in scoring (71%)

Lots of numbers to digest, and certainly a lot of things to consider when you begin your prep for next year’s draft.  Check out Fantasy Football Draft Matrix.  In the meantime, if you enjoyed this blog during the fantasy season, like us on Facebook, follow us on Twitter, buy the book.

  • 75% of my teams made the playoffs!
  • 50% of my teams went to the finals
  • 25% of my teams won the finals

In my next post, I’ll mathematically prove how my preseason draft projections and weekly projects were more accurate that numbers put forth by Yahoo.com, NFL.com, and ESPN.com

Sincerely,

Steve Broadway

Order Fantasy Football Playoffs Guaranteed today.  It comes with a DOUBLE your money back guarantee… if you buy the book or dvd, use the fantasy football draft matrix to draft your team, and use the projections found on this site to set your lineups every week, I guarantee you will make the playoffs, or DOUBLE your money back! – Steve Broadway, Author Fantasy Football Playoffs Guaranteed

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