9/25/14- Results Weeks 1-3

I haven’t really reported my results so far on this blog because I wanted to build up a decent body of work before I started bragging.  After all, anyone can have a great week one and proclaim that they’ve cracked the code of fantasy football; that they know how to draft and who to start.

To be honest, I am off the pace I set last year when 75% of my teams qualified for the playoffs (finished in the top 4).  But still, I’m way ahead of the field averages.

  • My overall record (24 teams) is 44-28, which is a 61% winning percentage.
  • 60% of my teams are in the top 4 in the standings.
  • I had a 67% winning percentage in week 3.
  • 5 of my 24 teams (21%) are in first place… double the 10% average.
  • 5 of my 24 teams (21%) are averaging over 100 ppg.
  • 12 of my 24 (50%) teams are averaging over 90 ppg.
  • 12 of my 24 (50%) teams are in 3rd place or better.

Obviously I use my Fantasy Football Draft Matrix® to select my teams.  But did you know I generate my own weekly projections that I use to determine my starting lineups?  To prove the superiority of my projections against the weekly projections of Yahoo.com, NFL.com, and ESPN.com, I take the average of the difference between my projection and the actual fantasy output of each player.  To clarify, let’s look at an example from week three, and how my projections compared to my competitors:

PLAYER BROADWAY YAHOO NFL ESPN
P.RIVERS 17.60 16.94 12.24 17.00
ACTUAL 19.34 19.34 19.34 19.34
DIFFERENCE 1.74 2.40 7.10 2.34

 

In this instance, I projected Philip Rivers would score 17.60, but I was off by just 1.74 from his actual fantasy points.  Yahoo, NFL, and ESPN were all off by more than me, so therefore, my projection for Philip Rivers was the most accurate.  I repeat this same calculation for over 130 players each week comparing my accuracy to the other guys.

The results are in.  As compared to Yahoo.com, NFL.com, and ESPN.com my projections were either the most accurate or second most accurate in 72% of all fantasy positions through the first three weeks.  Only once (Week 2 Kicker projections) was I the least accurate.

If you are not using the projections found on this site to set your lineup you are missing out on the most accurate numbers in the business.  I use standard, non-ppr scoring as found on NFL.com.

Steve Broadway is the author of Fantasy Football Playoffs Guaranteed.  See fantasyfootballplayoffsguaranteed.com for more information.

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