10/27/14- NFL Fantasy Live Review

10/27/14 NFL FANTASY LIVE

With Michael Fabiano, James Koh, Molly Qerim, Adam Rank, and Akbar Gbajabiamila.

The opening segment looked at this week’s amazing fantasy performance by Ben Roethlisberger, who put up 44.78 points against the Colts defense, which had literally been the best defense against opposing QB’s this year.  Roethlisberger’s output is the seventh most fantasy points by a QB all-time:

ALL TIME TOP QB FANTASY PERFORMANCES:

  • GEORGE BLANDA WEEK 10, 1961, 51.72pts
  • MICHAEL VICK WEEK 10, 2010, 49.32pts
  • Y.A. TITTLE WEEK 7, 1962, 48.30pts
  • MARK RYPIEN WEEK 11, 1991, 48.08pts
  • PEYTON MANNING WEEK 1, 2013, 46.28pts
  • AARON RODGERS WEEK 4, 2011, 45.92pts
  • BEN ROETHLISBERGER 44.78pts

That said, Fabiano doesn’t think Roethlisberger will be a relevant fantasy QB the rest of the way.

Broadway’s Analysis:  While I always keep an eye on matchups, it just goes to show that “nobody knows nothin'” when it comes to projecting things like this.  But I agree that Roethlisberger is unlikely to finish as a top 10 fantasy QB.  He’s available in 16% of NFL.com and 26% of Yahoo.com leagues, but I would only pick him up to trade him while he’s hot.

Next, Molly Q, Rank, and Akbar previewed the Monday night game between the Redskins and Cowboys.  The guys think the Redskins receivers will struggle with Colt McCoy at the helm.  Akbar does, however, think Alfred Morris may excel in prime time.

Turning to the Cowboys, they expect  DeMarco Murray to continue to do what he’s been doing, which is putting up big-time numbers.  In turn, this should open things up for Tony Romo, says Akbar, which in turn, would open things up for Dez Bryant.

Broadway’s Analysis:  I have Morris projected for a sub-par 8.9 fantasy points against the suddenly impressive Dallas defense.  And I think they are right on about the new Dallas “triplets” to perform well in primetime.

Fabiano broke down Tom Brady’s incredible turn around, as he’s had 20+ fantasy points in four straight weeks.  Fabiano admits he came out and said it was time to drop the guy.

Broadway’s Analysis:  I did the same.  I thought it was over for Brady, but if I may toot my own horn, I did have him ranked as the sixth best fantasy QB going into the season, which was much higher than most experts (Yahoo.com had him 8th, NFL.com had him 10th, and ESPN.com had him at 12).

On to the Jets, the question became whether any Jet is worth starting considering the struggles they have at QB.

Broadway’s Analysis:  I agree with the show’s assessment that somehow, Chris Ivory still remains fantasy relevant, but as nothing more than a flex who should be considered a TD-or-bust player.

There were some injuries to some name players: Giovani Bernard, Doug Martin, Brian Quick, and Jordan Cameron.  Fabiano recommends that you keep an eye on Charles Sims, who may flourish in the wake of Doug Martin’s injury.  Fabiano can “almost guarantee” Sims will become the starter.  Brian Quick is out for the year.  Fabiano expects nothing from Tavon Austin, and in fact wouldn’t start any Ram with any confidence.

Broadway’s Analysis:  I agree with Fabiano on most of these points, but I would certainly apply the “if he does it twice” rule to Sims: meaning, wait till he has two double digit weeks before you add him.

Looking at the top performers, Fabiano cited Arian Foster as a top 3 RB, the Gronk is back, Jeremy Maclin could be the most underrated WR, and the Dolphins Defense put up 26 points this week.

Broadway’s Analysis:  Technically, I was wrong on Foster in the preseason, but I just don’t like to go with “question mark” players as my RB1, and Foster did miss 8 games last year.  As for the Gronk, I’m glad to say I saw this coming as I had him ranked as the 3rd best TE in preseason, and I own him on 5 of my 24 teams.  Maclin has been a nice surprise and is an obvious WR1.  But speaking of obvious, do we really need to highlight the output of the Dolphins defense?  After all, they were playing the lowly Jaguars.  

Next, the boys broke down the Sunday night game that featured big plays by Cobb, Lacy, Cooks, and Mark Ingram.

Broadway’s Analysis: A fun game that made lots of fantasy owners happy.  I’ve loved Mark Ingram ever since his strong preseason, and I’ll think of him as an RB1 the rest of the way.

Next, the boys did their segment where they brag about the predictions they got right, not that there’s anything wrong with that.  Rank suggested Lance Kendricks, who actually scored a TD.  Somehow, Fabiano predicted a big game from Larry Fitzgerald based on how he’s performed against Philly in the past.  Koh called it… 400 yards and 3 TD’s for Andrew Luck, which is exactly what Luck put up.

Broadway’s Analysis:  Good call, guys.  For the record, I’m recommending you trade Fitzgerald while his stock is as high as it will be all year.

Akbar believes Jamaal Charles’ strong performances will continue.  Rank actually likes Fitzgerald, but admits it’s tough to decide who will be the primary target in Arizona.  Akbar called Sammy Watkins the best WR on the field for Buffalo and is a player you can trust.  Rank doesn’t, however, trust Brandin Cooks, as the carousel continues for WR in New Orleans.  Martavis Bryant isn’t worth pick up according to Akbar.

Broadway’s Analysis:  I agree on all fronts except for Fitzgerald, as I have previously stated.  Trade him.

Moving on to Fantasy disappointments, Fabiano highlighted Jordy Nelson, Shane Vereen, Cam Newton, Marshawn Lynch, Brandon Marshall, and Vincent Jackson.

Broadway’s Analysis:  We all should have traded Vereen after his last big game.  As for Cam, I agree with Fabiano:  wait until he has a good week and trade him.  No cause for concern with Lynch, and in fact, you could try to trade for him.  Brandon Marshall has been disappointing and I am concerned.  I say give it another week and make a reassessment.  Vincent Jackson has trade rumors, and should be benched in most situations.

The fans can vote for the mid-season fantasy awards.  The categories are: waiver wire pick up (Forsett, Bradshaw, Smith Sr.), rookie (Benjamin, Watkins, Oliver), spot start (Asiata, Donnell, Flacco), bust (patterson, stacy, allen), draft bargain (Rivers, Miller, Maclin), and MVP (Murray, Forte, Luck).

Broadway’s Analysis:  I’d vote for Bradshaw, Benjamin, Donnell, Stacy, Maclin, and Murray.

No need for me to analyze the “that helps no one” segment.  Fun stuff though.

Time to get your lineup groomed:  Rank recommends you add Denard Robinson over Taliaferro, Fabiano thinks you should drop Chris Johnson, and not Zac Stacy.  Akbar suggests you add Andrew Hawkins over Allen Robinson.

Broadway’s Analysis:  Useless segment.  If you are choosing between a horrendous player and a pitiful player, I don’t know what to tell you.  I will say, I don’t recommend you pick up Denard Robinson just yet, unless you plan to trade him right away.

Steve Broadway is the author of Fantasy Football Playoffs Guaranteed, the only fantasy football guide that guarantees you’ll make the playoffs or DOUBLE your money back.  For more information, visit fantasyfootballplayoffsguaranteed.com

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