11/25/14- The Most Accurate Projections In ALL Of Fantasy Football

Posted: November 25, 2014 in News, Opinion, Analysis
Tags: , , ,

Here’s the proof that my projections are the most accurate.  Let me explain the mess below:

courtesy Stuart Miles/freedigitalphotos.net

courtesy Stuart Miles/freedigitalphotos.net

There’s a reason why half of my teams went to the finals last year.  There’s a reason why 75% of my 24 teams are headed to the playoffs this year.  I use the most accurate projections in ALL of fantasy football.  And I use the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix.

Here’s how I explain the success of my projections in week 12.  I compare my projections (“SB”) with the actual amount of points a player scores and note the absolute value of the difference between the two numbers.  For example, I projected Andrew Luck would score 25.6 pts, but he actually scored 15.02.  So, I was off by 10.58, which you can find in the “ABS SB” column (which stands for Absolute Value Steve Broadway).  I take the average of these differences for each player at each position.  On average, for the QBs, I was off by 5.85, as you can see in the row entitled “Average).  Looking at the average of my competitors, only NFL.com was off by a smaller amount (5.06).  Therefore, my QB projections were the second most accurate.

As you can see by the rest of the chart, my projections were either the most accurate or second-most accurate at each position.  No other fantasy football site can make that claim about their projections.

 

RANK QB SB YAHOO NFL ESPN ACTUAL ABS SB ABS YAHOO ABS NFL ABS ESPN
1 A.LUCK 25.60 23.49 21.24 25.00 15.02 10.58 8.47 6.22 9.98
2 A.RODGERS 21.20 22.17 26.30 21.00 19.76 1.44 2.41 6.54 1.24
3 P.MANNING 19.00 20.03 24.06 21.00 28.08 9.08 8.05 4.02 7.08
4 J.CUTLER 18.90 20.33 18.26 18.00 7.20 11.70 13.13 11.06 10.80
5 D.BREES 18.80 19.98 24.78 18.00 28.30 9.50 8.32 3.52 10.30
6 R.WILSON 18.20 18.15 19.38 15.00 19.74 1.54 1.59 0.36 4.74
7 T.ROMO 17.70 17.42 17.04 15.00 24.80 7.10 7.38 7.76 9.80
8 C.KAEPERNICK 17.40 20.34 17.16 19.00 13.64 3.76 6.70 3.52 5.36
9 T.BRADY 17.00 17.25 19.88 15.00 19.96 2.96 2.71 0.08 4.96
10 R.TANNEHILL 16.80 18.67 17.26 16.00 26.62 9.82 7.95 9.36 10.62
11 J.MCCOWN 16.80 18.53 10.98 15.00 12.84 3.96 5.69 1.86 2.16
12 J.FLACCO 15.80 17.19 18.54 16.00 13.92 1.88 3.27 4.62 2.08
13 M.SANCHEZ 15.30 17.26 10.64 17.00 12.68 2.62 4.58 2.04 4.32
14 M.STAFFORD 14.40 16.41 18.94 16.00 10.36 4.04 6.05 8.58 5.64
15 D.STANTON 14.00 15.26 12.56 17.00 6.26 7.74 9.00 6.30 10.74
AVERAGE 5.85 6.35 5.06 6.65
RANK RB SB YAHOO NFL ESPN ACTUAL ABS SB ABS YAHOO ABS NFL ABS ESPN
1 D.MURRAY 23.00 19.77 22.40 22.00 14.30 8.70 5.47 8.10 7.70
2 J.CHARLES 22.90 18.94 17.20 23.00 18.20 4.70 0.74 1.00 4.80
3 M.FORTE 16.70 17.80 17.70 18.00 23.20 6.50 5.40 5.50 5.20
4 M.LYNCH 15.00 13.84 14.50 15.00 8.20 6.80 5.64 6.30 6.80
5 E.LACY 13.80 13.02 14.70 14.00 25.80 12.00 12.78 11.10 11.80
6 J.FORSETT 12.70 12.61 12.40 16.00 31.00 18.30 18.39 18.60 15.00
7 J.HILL 11.60 9.17 10.80 14.00 15.60 4.00 6.43 4.80 1.60
8 D.ROBINSON 11.00 9.44 12.10 12.00 5.20 5.80 4.24 6.90 6.80
9 M.INGRAM 11.00 12.69 15.60 14.00 4.20 6.80 8.49 11.40 9.80
10 C.ANDERSON 10.40 11.58 16.40 14.00 25.50 15.10 13.92 9.10 11.50
11 A.MORRIS 10.10 10.37 11.30 13.00 19.00 8.90 8.63 7.70 6.00
12 L.MCCOY 10.00 15.12 16.20 16.00 19.10 9.10 3.98 2.90 3.10
13 T.WEST 10.00 9.70 14.10 10.00 7.10 2.90 2.60 7.00 2.90
14 A.BLUE 10.00 13.47 1.20 17.00 6.60 3.40 6.87 5.40 10.40
15 L.MILLER 9.80 8.93 12.30 5.00 6.70 3.10 2.23 5.60 1.70
16 A.ELLINGTON 9.40 11.63 14.20 13.00 6.30 3.10 5.33 7.90 6.70
17 G.BERNARD 8.70 10.40 14.50 7.00 6.70 2.00 3.70 7.80 0.30
18 J.MCKINNON 8.60 12.07 6.30 16.00 6.30 2.30 5.77 0.00 9.70
19 F.GORE 8.30 11.44 14.00 7.00 1.60 6.70 9.84 12.40 5.40
20 D.SPROLES 8.20 4.61 5.00 4.00 9.90 1.70 5.29 4.90 5.90
21 T.MASON 8.00 10.55 14.90 7.00 8.80 0.80 1.75 6.10 1.80
22 I.CROWELL 7.90 10.58 10.30 15.00 20.80 12.90 10.22 10.50 5.80
23 T.RICHARDSON 7.80 12.79 7.00 14.00 10.20 2.40 2.59 3.20 3.80
24 S.JACKSON 7.50 10.36 6.40 13.00 11.10 3.60 0.74 4.70 1.90
25 R.JENNINGS 7.30 14.64 14.90 15.00 12.00 4.70 2.64 2.90 3.00
26 R.MATHEWS 7.30 8.11 12.90 13.00 17.30 10.00 9.19 4.40 4.30
27 J.BELL 7.30 10.21 6.20 7.00 4.60 2.70 5.61 1.60 2.40
28 C.IVORY 7.00 7.26 11.90 11.00 3.80 3.20 3.46 8.10 7.20
29 D.HERRON 6.20 6.27 1.20 3.00 7.60 1.40 1.33 6.40 4.60
30 P.THOMAS 6.10 6.10 6.60 5.00 5.60 0.50 0.50 1.00 0.60
31 F.JACKSON 6.10 9.73 7.50 7.00 10.50 4.40 0.77 3.00 3.50
32 T.RIDDICK 6.00 6.06 0.60 4.00 5.20 0.80 0.86 4.60 1.20
33 D.MCFADDEN 5.90 5.99 10.80 5.00 3.40 2.50 2.59 7.40 1.60
34 J.GRAY 5.80 5.79 11.50 11.00 0.00 5.80 5.79 11.50 11.00
35 B.CUNNINGHAM 5.60 5.79 7.50 3.00 2.90 2.70 2.89 4.60 0.10
36 R.HELU 5.50 4.88 4.40 3.00 0.90 4.60 3.98 3.50 2.10
37 B.SANKEY 5.20 9.01 6.60 7.00 3.10 2.10 5.91 3.50 3.90
38 L.MURRAY 5.00 4.87 1.50 4.00 23.20 18.20 18.33 21.70 19.20
39 CH.JOHNSON 5.00 4.62 5.00 3.00 6.20 1.20 1.58 1.20 3.20
40 S.VEREEN 4.00 8.70 14.00 3.00 6.00 2.00 2.70 8.00 3.00
AVERAGE 5.46 5.48 6.56 5.43
RANK WR SB YAHOO NFL ESPN ACTUAL ABS SB ABS YAHOO ABS NFL ABS ESPN
1 J.NELSON 15.60 12.66 23.43 15.00 6.80 8.80 5.86 16.63 8.20
2 J.MACLIN 14.30 10.16 14.00 14.00 5.90 8.40 4.26 8.10 8.10
3 CA.JOHNSON 14.00 13.48 16.80 15.00 5.80 8.20 7.68 11.00 9.20
4 DE.THOMAS 13.20 13.93 11.60 16.00 26.70 13.50 12.77 15.10 10.70
5 R.COBB 13.20 12.24 14.20 13.00 5.80 7.40 6.44 8.40 7.20
6 M.EVANS 12.60 11.91 13.50 14.00 10.70 1.90 1.21 2.80 3.30
7 D.BRYANT 12.30 12.00 14.60 13.00 20.60 8.30 8.60 6.00 7.60
8 A.GREEN 12.00 11.22 14.20 15.00 12.10 0.10 0.88 2.10 2.90
9 J.GORDON 12.00 10.68 20.10 15.00 12.00 0.00 1.32 8.10 3.00
10 B.MARSHALL 12.00 12.53 12.90 12.00 3.20 8.80 9.33 9.70 8.80
11 D.ROBINSON 11.00 9.44 12.10 12.00 5.20 5.80 4.24 6.90 6.80
12 T.HILTON 10.70 10.12 14.50 15.00 19.70 9.00 9.58 5.20 4.70
13 JU.JONES 10.40 10.66 17.90 15.00 12.80 2.40 2.14 5.10 2.20
14 G.TATE 9.90 7.92 12.90 12.00 11.00 1.10 3.08 1.90 1.00
15 D.JACKSON 9.60 7.62 9.00 14.00 3.90 5.70 3.72 5.10 10.10
16 A.JEFFERY 9.60 11.89 15.10 13.00 8.20 1.40 3.69 6.90 4.80
17 D.HOPKINS 9.40 9.20 8.80 13.00 3.90 5.50 5.30 4.90 9.10
18 E.SANDERS 9.40 11.13 13.50 13.00 14.80 5.40 3.67 1.30 1.80
19 S.WATKINS 9.00 10.41 13.50 12.00 3.50 5.50 6.91 10.00 8.50
20 O.BECKHAM 9.00 10.65 12.00 12.00 26.40 17.40 15.75 14.40 14.40
21 M.WALLACE 8.60 10.01 13.90 12.00 9.50 0.90 0.51 4.40 2.50
22 J.MATTHEWS 8.60 8.09 4.50 12.00 7.70 0.90 0.39 3.20 4.30
23 B.LAFELL 8.50 8.28 12.50 11.00 9.80 1.30 1.52 2.70 1.20
24 R.WHITE 8.40 9.77 7.40 6.00 9.60 1.20 0.17 2.20 3.60
25 A.BOLDIN 8.30 8.06 5.30 12.00 19.70 11.40 11.64 14.40 7.70
26 S.SMITH 8.00 8.69 11.10 12.00 14.90 6.90 6.21 3.80 2.90
27 T.SMITH 7.80 8.17 5.30 13.00 9.80 2.00 1.63 4.50 3.20
28 MA.FLOYD 7.80 7.83 7.50 12.00 3.00 4.80 4.83 4.50 9.00
29 R.WAYNE 7.70 8.72 13.00 15.00 1.00 6.70 7.72 12.00 14.00
30 J.BROWN 7.20 6.11 1.90 12.00 6.10 1.10 0.01 4.20 5.90
31 M.CRABTREE 7.10 8.77 13.30 11.00 5.80 1.30 2.97 7.50 5.20
32 C.SHORTS 7.00 8.49 6.10 12.00 0.60 6.40 7.89 5.50 11.40
33 M.COLSTON 6.90 8.03 6.30 14.00 14.20 7.30 6.17 7.90 0.20
34 K.WRIGHT 6.90 8.90 6.60 12.00 2.80 4.10 6.10 3.80 9.20
35 J.HUNTER 6.80 7.54 3.90 11.00 12.40 5.60 4.86 8.50 1.40
36 V.JACKSON 6.60 10.30 6.80 13.00 9.70 3.10 0.60 2.90 3.30
37 K.STILLS 6.10 7.48 10.70 7.00 9.60 3.50 2.12 1.10 2.60
38 M.SANU 5.80 9.09 12.30 5.00 10.90 5.10 1.81 1.40 5.90
39 D.BALDWIN 5.70 8.58 7.10 13.00 0.60 5.10 7.98 6.50 12.40
40 K.BRITT 4.40 7.92 4.30 13.00 3.70 0.70 4.22 0.60 9.30
AVERAGE 5.10 4.89 6.28 6.19
RANK TE SB YAHOO NFL ESPN ACTUAL ABS SB ABS YAHOO ABS NFL ABS ESPN
1 R.GRONKOWSKI 13.40 9.40 13.40 14.00 7.80 5.60 1.60 5.60 6.20
2 J.GRAHAM 9.70 12.47 14.40 12.00 8.10 1.60 4.37 6.30 3.90
3 A.GATES 8.80 8.62 10.10 10.00 1.40 7.40 7.22 8.70 8.60
4 L.DONNELL 8.00 6.69 11.30 11.00 2.40 5.60 4.29 8.90 8.60
5 M.BENNETT 7.60 8.04 12.70 6.00 3.70 3.90 4.34 9.00 2.30
6 C.FLEENER 7.40 8.47 8.90 13.00 2.80 4.60 5.67 6.10 10.20
7 J.WITTEN 6.70 7.51 11.20 11.00 9.00 2.30 1.49 2.20 2.00
8 T.KELCE 6.40 6.43 10.90 11.00 6.70 0.30 0.27 4.20 4.30
9 J.TAMME 6.20 6.25 0.70 2.00 -0.10 6.30 6.35 0.80 2.10
10 D.WALKER 6.00 7.92 12.40 4.00 15.50 9.50 7.58 3.10 11.50
11 N.PAUL 6.00 6.01 1.40 3.00 1.10 4.90 4.91 0.30 1.90
12 M.RIVERA 4.60 5.83 12.30 9.00 0.80 3.80 5.03 11.50 8.20
13 J.COOK 4.60 5.19 4.80 4.00 2.70 1.90 2.49 2.10 1.30
14 S.CHANDLER 4.30 5.01 3.30 9.00 8.80 4.50 3.79 5.50 0.20
15 O.DANIELS 4.00 6.88 9.80 4.00 0.00 4.00 6.88 9.80 4.00
AVERAGE 4.41 4.42 5.61 5.02
RANK K SB YAHOO NFL ESPN ACTUAL ABS SB ABS YAHOO ABS NFL ABS ESPN
1 A.VINATIERI 11.00 9.53 8.00 16.00 11.00 0.00 1.47 3.00 5.00
2 D.BAILEY 10.00 8.68 11.00 12.00 7.00 3.00 1.68 4.00 5.00
3 C.PARKEY 10.00 8.41 9.00 10.00 21.00 11.00 12.59 12.00 11.00
4 P.DAWSON 9.00 9.09 5.00 14.00 5.00 4.00 4.09 0.00 9.00
5 M.BRYANT 9.00 8.68 11.00 11.00 8.00 1.00 0.68 3.00 3.00
6 C.STURGIS 9.00 8.39 8.00 11.00 4.00 5.00 4.39 4.00 7.00
7 S.GOSTKOWSKI 9.00 9.00 11.00 9.00 10.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
8 J.TUCKER 9.00 8.14 8.00 9.00 12.00 3.00 3.86 4.00 3.00
9 D.CARPENTER 8.00 8.71 8.00 14.00 10.00 2.00 1.29 2.00 4.00
10 S.HAUSCHKA 8.00 7.95 8.00 11.00 15.00 7.00 7.05 7.00 4.00
AVERAGE 3.70 3.81 4.00 5.20
RANK DEF SB YAHOO NFL ESPN ACTUAL ABS SB ABS YAHOO ABS NFL ABS ESPN
1 INDIANAPOLIS 10.00 9.46 4.00 8.00 15.00 5.00 5.54 11.00 7.00
2 BUFFALO 9.00 10.29 8.00 12.00 22.00 13.00 11.71 14.00 10.00
3 GREEN BAY 9.00 9.56 6.00 9.00 4.00 5.00 5.56 2.00 5.00
4 SAN DIEGO 9.00 7.55 2.00 10.00 14.00 5.00 6.45 12.00 4.00
5 PHILADELPHIA 8.00 9.49 6.00 8.00 17.00 9.00 7.51 11.00 9.00
6 ARIZONA 8.00 5.98 6.00 3.00 8.00 0.00 2.02 2.00 5.00
7 NEW ENGLAND 8.00 9.39 7.00 5.00 8.00 0.00 1.39 1.00 3.00
8 SAN FRANCISCO 8.00 8.05 5.00 6.00 11.00 3.00 2.95 6.00 5.00
9 DETROIT 7.00 6.20 9.00 4.00 1.00 6.00 5.20 8.00 3.00
10 MIAMI 7.00 5.56 5.00 5.00 -1.00 8.00 6.56 6.00 6.00
AVERAGE 5.40 5.49 7.30 5.70

 

Summary:  my projections were the most accurate in week 12 for TEs, Ks, and DEFs.  My projections were the second most accurate for QBs, RBs, WRs.

Steve Broadway is the author of Fantasy Football Playoffs Guaranteed, the only fantasy football guide that guarantees you’ll make the playoffs or DOUBLE your money back.  For more information, visit fantasyfootballplayoffsguaranteed.com

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