Week 1 Projections and Post-Draft Observaish

Posted: September 10, 2017 in News, Opinion, Analysis

I have over 20 drafts under my belt (with more to come), and I thought I’d share my thoughts.  Some of the draft trends I’ve encountered are complete head-scratchers.  Don’t make these mistakes…

  • Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey:  I say this all the time.  Remember when Allen Iverson was “talking’ ’bout practice.”  Well, with that in mind, “we’re talkin’ ’bout rookies.”  No doubt– no doubt at all– that Cook and McCaffrey showed a little something in the pre-season.  They are potentially explosive players from high profile colleges.  They are sexy picks.  And McCaffrey is physically attractive.  Cook has a nice smile.  But don’t be seduced by the dark side.  We’re talking’ ’bout rookies who have literally– LITERALLY!!!– never played a down in the NFL.  Preseason Shmreason… lets see them do it in September.  And October.  And November.  And whatever month comes after that.  Why are you taking these fools in the 2nd round?  Don’t be a s sucka, sucka.
  • Ezekiel Elliott: So, as I’ve stated many times, Zeke had a historic rookie year.  However, I didn’t draft him to a single team last year, and I participated in 22 leagues.  I made the playoffs in 21 out of those leagues and went to the finals in half of those and won the championship in half of those.  Without Zeke.  If I didn’t need him then, I don’t need him now.  So, for those of you who drafted him in the first round, I say this:  You are foolish.  Unless of course you drafted after his suspension was… uh, suspended?  You got lucky this time, kid.  Somehow a six-game suspension was reduced to “maybe next year we’ll get you.”  NFL looks bad on this one.  Now, on more than one occasion, I took Zeke in the second round.  And to that I say this: Drafting Elliott in the first round won’t get you into the playoffs.  But drafting him second and having him as your RB2 will, because he probably is going to be vastly superior to the Bilal Powells of the world.  The best case scenario was if you had the first pick overall, drafted DJ or L-Bell and then snagged Elliott at 20.  And you still had the 21st pick to potentially grab this guy:
  • Rob Gronkowski- yes.  Still worthy of a second round pick.  ADP check: Yahoo has him at 27. NFL: 21.  ESPN: 19.  Yahoo is normally the most accurate out of those sites, but here’s one they got wrong.  I mean heck, if Gronk falls to 27 you’d be stealing, but that never occurred in my drafts.  I did have one draft where I broke some of the rules of the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix, by taking DJ #1, then on the consecutive picks, I drafted Aaron Rodgers at 20, and Gronk at 21.  I loved the idea of having the number one guys on my board at those three position, but really, by breaking the rule of the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix, it hurt my roster by the eventual lack of talent at the WR position.
  • Brady in the first– naturally, before Thursday night’s collapse against Kansas City–Tom Brady was a bonafide top three QB option for fantasy football players everywhere.  But still, I couldn’t justify him going in the first round, and sure would never endorse a QB going first overall.  Of course, after Kansas City defeated the Patriots, you could just wait until the…. 5th round to grab him like I did (Keep him mind, Brady’s ADP is 20 is ESPN leagues!  And I go him at 49!)Screen Shot 2017-09-10 at 5.44.52 AM
  • Kareem Hunt-  Speaking of Thursday… yeah we all kind of missed the boat on this guy.  Again it won’t make or break you season.  But his performance was enough for me to move him up a few spaces and crack the 150-point barrier.  Andy Reid always has productive RBs and maybe I should have seen him coming.  Oh wait, he’s a rookie?  Never mind, he sucks.  Don’t take him before the late 2nd.  Before Thursday, I had him at RB27, NFL had him at RB98.
  • Matt Stafford and QB’s in general (Rivers, etc).  It really amazes me that I participated in a league in which Matthew Stafford was not even drafted.  They say don’t draft a QB too early.  I could make a pretty good argument not to draft a QB until the last round.  Is it possible that QBs have become the new kickers?  Maybe I’ll take a look at taking QBs in the last two rounds, in the hope that one emerges as a top five QB by the end of the year.
  • You really can wait on getting a quality RB2 or FlexRB.  Here is a sample of players whose ADP is in the 70s and 80s in ESPN leagues: Mike Gillislee, CJ Anderson, Ameer Abdullah, Robert Kelley, Paul Perkins, Terrence West, Stefon Diggs, DeVante Parker, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin… some of these  guys are non-RBBCs for their teams.  The WRs are all 1st or 2nd on their team’s depth chart.  These are the picks that win you a fantasy league, NOT who you take in the first round.

Hope you enjoyed the read (please subscribe), hope you enjoyed your draft.  I definitely hope you use the Matrix and my projections because if you didn’t, you’ll probably go winless this year.  Again.  Just like the Patriots will since their humiliating loss.  But seriously, how many of these idiotic experts on television were debating whether or not the Pats would go undefeated this year.  See?  It’s like I always say… the 3 N’s: baby.  Nobody. kNows. Nothing.

 

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