The Accuracy of My Week 2 Projections, and a Tip of the Cap to the Greatest Manager of All Time.

Posted: September 18, 2017 in News, Opinion, Analysis

All the leaves are brown.  And the sky is grey.  Actually there are no clouds whatsoever when it comes the forecast that is my fantasy football projections.  Between the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix® and The Most Accurate Projections in the Business®, no wonder I made the finals in 11 out of 22 leagues last year.

IN WEEK 2, OUT THE PROJECTIONS I CALCULATED FOR 130 PLAYERS, MY PROJECTIONS *ON AVERAGE* ARE OFF BY LESS THAN 1 POINT. -STEVE BROADWAY

I’m sure you care about my opinions, but do you really want to read them?  I guessing you’re busy.  Today, no doubt, you are mourning the loss of Bobby “The Brain” Heenan.  Well listen up all you 9-to-5 ham and eggers, I’ll give you some concise opinions, perhaps tomorrow, on all things fantasy football tomorrow.  First, I must establish credibility.

Here’s why I say I have the most accurate projections.  I do so with some simple sixth grade level math:

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  1. I post projections for 130 players each week.
  2. I calculate the difference between my projections and each players actual fantasy points scored for that week.  This is known as subtraction, humanoids.
  3. Then I take both the average of these numbers and the median.  While we’re all probably clear on what an “average” is, perhaps you are rusty on medians.  The middle number in the set of numbers listed from smallest-to-biggest (or vice versa) is the median.  For example, 3 is the median of the following list of numbers: 1, 3, 5.
  4. Not only do I take the average and median of all 130 players, but I also break it down by position.

While this analysis is a complete waste of my time, I enjoy doing it.

Okay… here its.  Week 2 data on the accuracy of my projections:

QB’s

TOP 10 MEDIAN TOP 25 MEDIAN
4.07 4.31
TOP 10 AVERAGE TOP 15 AVERAGE
4.24 4.16

 

Think of it this way… my projections for top 10 and top 25 QB were off by about 4 points.

Here are the rest of the positions:

 

RB’s

TOP 10 MEDIAN TOP 25 MEDIAN
4.16 1.86
TOP 10 AVERAGE TOP 25 AVERAGE
3.13 -0.04

 

Wow, that’s some impressive stuff.  When you think of the top 10 RB’s, the guys you MUST START according to my projections, well…  I was only off by -0.04!  4-hundredths of a point ON AVERAGE.  Another way to look at MEDIAN is to say, half of the RB’s I projected were off by more than 1.86, and the other have were off by less.

 

WR’s

TOP 10 MEDIAN TOP 25 MEDIAN
3.11 1.88
TOP 10 AVERAGE TOP 25 AVERAGE
3.88 1.73

 

Again, uncanny accuracy.

 

TE’s

TOP 5 MEDIAN TOP 10 MEDIAN
2.44 0.06
TOP 5 AVERAGE TOP 10 AVERAGE
0.43 -0.65

 

Getting the point yet?

 

K’s

TOP 5 MEDIAN TOP 10 MEDIAN
-1.00 -1.00
TOP 5 AVERAGE TOP 10 AVERAGE
-1.00 -1.13

 

Kicker are not so disparate, as the majority of kickers score between 7-10 points every week.

 

DEF’s

TOP 5 MEDIAN TOP 10 MEDIAN
0.00 -1.00
TOP 5 AVERAGE TOP 10 AVERAGE
-0.33 -1.63

 

Okay this is getting redundant.

If all of this is too much, think of it this way: when I make these calculations for ALL positions (130 players each week), my projections are off, ON AVERAGE by 0.41.

Wait, what?

IN WEEK 2, OUT THE PROJECTIONS I CALCULATED FOR 130 PLAYERS, MY PROJECTIONS *ON AVERAGE* ARE OFF BY LESS 1/2 OF A POINT!

Most accurate in the business, baby.

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