Week 2, and What it Means to You…

Posted: September 19, 2017 in News, Opinion, Analysis
Tags: , , , ,

Well, it’s credit taking time.  With most players having two weeks under their belts, they are starting create an impression of what their season will look like and with that, the boom vs bust conversations will also start to materialize.  Here are my latest revelations: 

week 2 screen shot


QB’s

And just like that, Tom Brady is great again.  So simple…

How’s Drew Brees doing? And Aaron Rodgers.  While it just feels like Brees and Rodgers are having down season, the truth is they are ranked 6th and 7th at their position.  The Packers may be averaging only 20 ppg and The Saints are 0-2, but the Packers have played Seattle and Atlanta (combined allowing 16.5 ppg) and Drew Brees. I envision them to continue their ascent with at least one of them cracking the top 5 by season’s end…

Quick, which QB is leading fantasy football in points scored?  Trevor F. Siemian.  The “F” stands for Freakin’.  Even I didn’t see this one coming as I had him ranked QB26 in the preseason.  But a closer look reveals Siemian is only averaging 225 yards per game.  His completion percentage is an impressive 65%… but wait, is it impressive?  He’s actually ranked 16th in completion percentage in the NFL. And of course, percentage is not a factor in fantasy football.  It’s his six touchdowns over two games that account for his production.  I doubt he’ll average 3 tds per game or you’d have ‘84 Dan Marino, so I’m in no rush to pick Siemian up in waivers nor free agency.  Plus, I don’t care for the fact that every time I type is name, I have to double check the spelling.  So annoying, Simeon…

I’m very proud of my projection of Derek Carr.  I ranked him 10th on my  Fantasy Football Draft Matrix® (more accurate than the other sites), he’s currently ranked 5 averaging nearly 20 ppg, despite Amari Cooper’s disappointing production.  I do expect Cooper to improve as opponents will have to account for a surging Michael Crabtree, which would ensure a top 10 finish for Carr…

I really like how low I had Kirk Cousins in my preseason rankings. He’s been steadily improving over the past two years, and there were those who saw him as a top 5 QB in 2017.  But I figured he’s peaked and not likely to be a top 10 QB (currently 23) by season’s end.  My Fantasy Football Draft Matrix® steered me away from him and the result was me drafting him only twice out of 21 leagues.  You like that, huh?

Finally, don’t give up hope on Russell Wilson but be wary of Cam Newton.  You have to figure Seattle will eliminated the clutter in their RB situation, and Russell Wilson will certainly improve upon one TD pass in 2 games.  Cam Newton is struggling in pass yardage and completion percentage.  Newton does not have a rushing TD yet, and the Panthers have yet to find a way to effectively utilize young weapons like Christian McCaffrey and Samuel Curtis.  Greg Olsen’s injury will not do Newton any favors neither.  We may reach a point this season where Cam Newton becomes bench-able….


RB’s

Kareem Hunt is not only the top RB, but he is the leading scorer in all fantasy football positions so far.  While there was no way to forecast this kind of production, I cannot help but think of the productive RB’s Andy Reid has coached in his career: Duce Staley, LeSean McCoy, Michael Westbrook, Jamaal Charles.  All of them productive and maybe we should have seen somethnig like this coming.  Now, write this down: Kareem Hunt will be in everyone’s top 3 overall picks next year, except me.  I always like to see a player maintain that level of production for more than one season.  It’s my “do it twice” rule…

I received a lot of dissenting opinions when I ranked Todd Gurley one spot above Leonard Fournette in the my draft rankings.  While Fournette was the sexier pick and looked better in preseason, I defaulted to my tried and true “he’s never played a single down in the NFL” rule.  I had Gurley by a nose, and so far, Gurley is the 2nd most productive fantasy RB this year. While I probably had them a little too low (13, 14) based on how the season is shaping up, I assure you that passing on either of these players will not cost you a playoff spot.  Put another way, why take these Gurley or Fournette in the second round, when you could have taken CJ Anderson in the 5th or Ty Montgomery in the 7th…

Demarco Murray has been underachieving this year.  Luckily I had him ranked as the 8th best RB so he was drafted before he was next on my board in every draft.  That’s right, I took him ZERO times in 21 leagues.  Derrick Henry surpassed him in carries this week which could be indicative of where the Titans plan to go…

Although Mike Gilleslee has emerged from the NE backfield RBBC situation as the back with three times more carries than anyone else on the team and has a monopoly on short yardage carries, I still have no faith in New England having any kind of consistent running game from one week to the next.  I’ll Flex him, but I won’t RB2 him…

The Baltimore RB situation may not have a clear cut choice, but Terrance West and Javorius Allen are ranked 10th and 11th in terms of fantasy productions and both have gotten into the endzone.  I endorse either one of them as RB2 or a strong Flex…

Same thing in Washington where so far, where Rob Kelley is getting majority of the workload, but Chris Thompson is the Redskins’ short yardage option.  And though Yahoo loved Samaje Perine going into the season, he put up 0 points in week one but filled in for Robert Kelley in week 2. Do yourself a favor and avoid them all…

Welp, considering Eddie Lacy (or is it Eddy Lacie) only has 5 carries, and Thomas Rawls only has 5 carries, and CJ Prosise only has 4 carries, it would appear that Chris Carson will be the featured back in Seattle.  Wake me when he gets into the endzone…

So I look at Tarik Cohen and for a moment I’m excited because I didn’t have him on my draft board which makes me feel like an idiot.  Only 13 yards rushing in week 2?  He sucks.  Oh wait, he added 55 yards receiving. Ne’er mind.  I saw him in preseason, I liked what I saw (6.4 avg) he was on my radar, lets see him keep it up now…

Speaking of my theme of undervaluing rookies, I look pretty damn smart with my evaluation of rookie RBs Christian McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook (19th and 25th respectively.  And you took them in the second round.  Shame.  Both are currently outside the top 25 RBs…

Speaking of Christian McCaffrey, while the other sites ranked him as high as 15, my ranking of 20 was the most accurate, but still way too high.  If you wasted a second round pick on a rookie RB, you’re getting what you deserve.  I think Ezekiel Elliott’s record setting season last year inflated the value of rookie RBs in 2017.  Elliott’s 62 yards from scrimmage, 0 TDs, and 1 lost fumble are some scary numbers…

Speaking of Ezekiel Elliot… this was another projection I nailed.  Certainly there was confusion about where to take him, with a looming suspension.  However, I had him ranked RB10 in preseason, while NFL ranked him RB5.  The results was me drafting him only twice out of my 21 teams, and his performance last night shows it is indeed possible that he comes back to earth a little bit this year as I predicted  And now there’s rumors of an attitude problem.  Boy, there’s a shocker…

Finally, if you have LeVeon Bell, don’t even think about trading him nor benching him.  It’s only two weeks in, and with such concern about his output, you are better off sticking to your 1st round pick than trading him for someone with potential that doesn’t come close to Bell’s…


WR’s

Martavis Bryant put up some nice numbers this week (15.9 fantasy points), but only had 4 targets.  This is what you should probably expect from the big play WR.  In week one, he only scored 1.4 fantasy points.  He’s your classic feast or famine guy…

When studying the fantasy stats of WR’s the first thing that jumps out is the emergence of a new crop of receivers.  Of the top three WR’s going into the season only Antonio Brown has cracked the current top ten, and it’s hard to have complete confidence in Odell Beckham considering his injury and week-to-week uncertain status.  The Minnesota receivers are both WR2 quality, Nelson Agholor makes me nervous in that he is 4th on the Eagles in receiving yards.  JJ Nelson has filled in beautifully for John Brown by leading the Cards in receptions, yards, and TDs, while  Kenny Golladay is worth keeping an eye on, but is right on the bubble for a roster spot for your fantasy team…

Don’t take any NY Jets.  So don’t talk to me about Jermaine Kearse.  Bilal Powell’s has been playing like Thurston Howell.  Don’t take any Jets…

Receivers in general have been tricky this year. But here is a list of WRs that are in the top 25 in terms of fantasy points, that are ranked within 5 spots of where I had them pre-draft: Antonio Brown, Alshon Jeffery, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins.  That’s it? I’ll have to take a closer look at this at some point…


TE’s

Once again, Rob Gronkowski has been a fantasy production machine.  And once again, he is upholding the time-honored tradition of getting injured during the season.  And I’m STILL going to take him in the second round next year…

Inexplicably, Jason Witten is the number one fantasy TE, but even more inexplicable is the fact that he is always so low on fantasy football pre-season projections, including mine (outside the top 10)…

Admit it.  You don’t know the name David Njoku.  Well, now you will never forget the name of… David Njoku…


K’s and DEFs

While it’s hard to get fired up about kickers, Giorgio Tavecchio is now a worthy fantasy starter since Sebastian Janikowski has been relegated to IR.

Finally, kudos to NFL.com for projecting Baltimore as the 4th best defense at the start of the season, while I ranked them outside the top ten.  It’s strange how biases get into our heads when we think of certain fantasy players/defenses who are actually better than we think.  The Ravens are one of those entities for me.  Frankly, I keep thinking abou the historically good defense that won Super Bowl XXV, and how they must have dropped off since then.  Well, they are the number one defense in fantasy this year and have finished in the top 10 in 3 out of the last 4 seasons…

That’s all for now.  Check back later today for my advice on Waivers and Free Agents.

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