What I learned in Week 4

It’s like I always say:  Nobody kNows Nothing.

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Superman Returns.

I call it the three N’s because I’m clever.  Super clever.

Find me one expert that forecasted the top three QB’s this week after the 1pm games concluded would be Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton, and Andy Dalton.  Just one.  You can’t.  Because they didn’t.  Nor did I, humanoids.  So why do I keep winning?

But unfortunately, it seemed there was an inordinate amount of injuries that stole the headlines on Sunday, leaving fantasy owners praying to the fantasy gods for miraculous healings.

  • Dalvin Cook- this was a bad one.  Evidently, it’s a complete tear of the ACL which would keep Cook out presumably the rest of the season.  Despite what the ding dongs at NFL.com say, Jerrick McKinnon will not be assuming the role of starting RB in Minnesota.  Instead, the very capable Latavius Murray will get the bulk of the touches.  Murray averaged double-digit points per game the past two seasons with the Raiders.  Hopefully, you have a handcuff situation, otherwise, he’s the first guy you should shoot for on the waiver wire.  He’s available in 52% of the leagues at NFL.com.
  • Julio Jones- like his QB, Matt Ryan, Jones is having a down season anyway, so his 3-point performance prior to his hip flexor injury wasn’t much of deviation from his regular performance this season.  Stay tuned for an update.  With Mohammad Sanu also injured, Taylor Gabriel (available in 83% of NFL.com leagues) is the logical pickup, but wait for him to clear waivers.  Gabriel managed zero receptions on Sunday.
  • Derek Carr- He took a painful-looking knee to the back and sustained an injured described as a “spasm.”  No word yet on whether the struggling QB will play next week.  Avoid picking up his replacement, E.J. Manuel.
  • Marcus Mariota- A hamstring injury opened the door for Matt Cassel to take the snaps from center, however, Cassell is hardly worthy of a roster spot on your fantasy team at this point.
  • Chris Carson- The late game featured more carnage. Unreal.  By default, Eddie Lacy got the carries (Rawls and Prosise were both already injured coming into the game),  and though he looked strong in the fourth quarter, his underwhelming productivity cost him the starting job at the beginning of the season.

 

Here are some other tidbits, factoids, and eye-openers from Sunday:

  • Cam Newton put up 33.04 points, the most he’s scored since week two… OF LAST SEASON.  I had him projected at QB12 while NFL, Yahoo, and ESPN  ranked him QB23, QB20, and QB15 respectively.  Advantage: Broadway.
  • Since 2012, Matt Ryan has had outstanding seasons on even years and surprisingly poor performances in odd years.  That trend is continuing this year.  2017.  Odd number.  His fantasy points have decreased every week in 2017, and he is currently ranked 17th at his position.  In other words, he shouldn’t even be starting in a ten team league.
  • Le’Veon Bell and Todd Gurley both continued their redemption stories.  Bell struggled in the first two games, while Gurley took a step backward from 2015 to 2016.  I’m proud to say I had Bell second overall on my draft board, while I rated Gurley higher than all those flashy rookies who were drafted too early this year.  What Gurley has this year reminds me to avoid guys who never played a down in the NFL, and to not use preseason to downgrade players.
  • Lamar Miller finally got things going.  And this reminds me that one of my rules for running my teams is not to drop any of your draft day starters until after the fourth week, giving the guys at the top of your board enough time to establish the kind of season they will have.  The same can be said for Bilal Powell.  If you held on to him this long, it was worth the wait (25 points).
  • Speaking of Houston, it is now offically okay to pick him up because he satisfied my “do it twice” rule.  He’s average 26 points in the past two week and now offically okay to claim off waivers, as he is only owned in 14% of NFL.com leagues.
  • And finally, Deshaun Watson’s commanding performance (33 pts) has enhanced the value of DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, who comined for 143 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns.

That’s all for now.  Please look for my waiver strategy for week 5, as well as The Most Accurate Projections in the Business®, coming soon.