Week 4 Recap: Nothing But Statement Wins and Uncanny Accuracy

Posted: October 4, 2017 in News, Opinion, Analysis
Tags: ,

I don’t know how to say it, but I’m just going to say it.  The Fantasy Football Draft Matrix® works, and so do my projections: The Most Accurate Projections in the Business®. Yes indeed… it was another highly successful week for me:

  • My teams went 15-6, for a winning percentage of 71%.
  • My 21 teams averaged 94.46 points/game.
  • 12 of my 21 teams would make the playoffs (top 4 in their league) if the season ended today.  That’s a 57% rate.  Keep in mind the top 4 teams in 10 team leagues make the playoffs; which would be 40%.  So in a world where only 40% of teams can qualify for post-season, I’m succeeding a rate of 57%; my teams are qualifying at a rate that is 43% percent better than the field.
  • My overall winning percentage for weeks 1-4 is 61%
  • As for my projections– and I’ve posted the data below just in case you don’t believe me– the average difference between my projections and the actual fantasy points scored by the 130 players I evaluated was only 0.61.  That’s less than 1 point per player!

But first, let’s take a look at my highest scoring team this week:

Screen Shot 2017-10-04 at 4.43.11 PM

And as promised, the data confirming that my projections were only off by 0.61 points/player:

QB WEEK 4 PROJECTION NOTES WEEK 4 ACTUAL POINTS DIFFERENCE
Tom Brady 23.40 20.48 2.92
Aaron Rodgers 21.30 23.06 -1.76
Ruselll Wilson 19.20 27.6 -8.40
Drew Brees 19.00 19.02 -0.02
Marcus Mariota 17.60 15.74 1.86
Dak Prescott 17.50 22.58 -5.08
Carson Wentz 17.30 15.08 2.22
Trevor Siemien 17.10 11.26 5.84
Matt Ryan 16.80 8.48 8.32
Philip Rivers 16.70 19.88 -3.18
Carson Palmer 16.50 16.38 0.12
Cam Newton*** 16.40 33.04 -16.64
Derek Carr 16.30 9.72 6.58
Alex Smith 16.20 27.32 -11.12
Matthew Stafford 16.00 10.06 5.94
RB WEEK 4 PROJECTION
Kareem Hunt 18.80 12.1 6.70
Devonta Freeman 17.20 13.8 3.40
Toddy Gurley 15.80 27.5 -11.70
Ty Montgomery*** 13.70 2.8 10.90
Ezekiel Elliott 13.50 25.9 -12.40
Jordan Howard 13.40 12.3 1.10
Leonard Fournette 13.00 20.5 -7.50
Melvin Gordon*** 12.90 2.9 10.00
Le’Veon Bell 11.00 30.6 -19.60
Dalvin Cook 10.30 11.4 -1.10
LeSean McCoy 9.90 10.8 -0.90
C.J. Anderson 9.70 11.2 -1.50
Jay Ajayi*** 9.60 5.4 4.20
Carlos Hyde*** 9.50 9.5 0.00
Chris Thompson 9.50 0.7 8.80
Lamar Miller 9.40 25.1 -15.70
DeMarco Murray 8.90 3.5 5.40
Mike Gillislee 8.90 4.9 4.00
Marshawn Lynch 8.60 overrated 1.2 7.40
Mark Ingram 8.20 6.2 2.00
Terrance West 8.10 -0.7 8.80
LeGarrette Blount 8.00 15.6 -7.60
Tarik Cohen 7.50 4.8 2.70
Christian McCaffrey 7.20 4.9 2.30
Frank Gore 7.10 8 -0.90
Joe Mixon 7.10 4.8 2.30
Chris Carson 7.00 6 1.00
Tevin Coleman 7.00 14.4 -7.40
Duke Johnson*** 6.80 12 -5.20
Rob Kelley*** 6.70 2.3 4.40
Jacquizz Rodgers 6.60 10.8 -4.20
Javorius Allen 6.60 4.4 2.20
James White 6.50 X- Dont get too excited about his 10.1 pts last week. 5.4 1.10
Jonathan Stewart 6.50 4.8 1.70
Ameer Abdullah 6.40 X-2 consec 8.6 weeks 16.9 -10.50
Chris Johnson 6.40 6.3 0.10
Bilal Powell 6.00 25 -19.00
Derrick Henry*** 6.00 0.7 5.30
Andre Ellington 5.90 10.4 -4.50
Jamaal Charles 5.80 X-avg 5.1 4.7 1.10
WR WEEK 4 PROJECTION
Antonio Brown 13.60 3.4 10.20
Odell Beckham 12.80 9 3.80
Jordy Nelson 12.30 19.5 -7.20
Emmanuel Sanders 10.40 2.7 7.70
Tyreek Hill 10.20 reeval 3.5 6.70
DeVante Parker 10.20 6.9 3.30
Stefon Diggs 10.10 x-sell high 9.8 0.30
Chris Hogan 10.00 12 -2.00
Mike Evans 10.00 12.7 -2.70
Julio Jones*** 9.90 3 6.90
Dez Bryant 9.10 9.8 -0.70
Michael Thomas 9.10 x-miss your chance to trade 14.9 -5.80
Doug Baldwin*** 9.00 5.5 3.50
Sammy Watkins*** 9.00 1.7 7.30
Davante Adams 8.90 7.3 1.60
A.J. Green 8.90 12.3 -3.40
DeAndre Hopkis 8.80 16.7 -7.90
Demaryius Thomas 8.70 1.1 7.60
Brandin Cooks 8.70 Brandon Marshall 4.2 4.50
Adam Thielen 8.60 3.9 4.70
Golden Tate 8.60 3.1 5.50
Keenan Allen 8.50 13.8 -5.30
Amari Cooper*** 8.40 0.9 7.50
Pierre Garcon 8.20 3.6 4.60
Alshon Jeffery 8.20 8.9 -0.70
Willie Snead*** 0.00 questionable 0 0.00
Martavis Bryant*** 8.00 4.8 3.20
Larry Fitzgerald 8.00 9.2 -1.20
J.J. Nelson*** 7.40 don’t overreact 3.4 4.00
Kenny Stills*** 7.40 1.3 6.10
DeSean Jackson 7.20 2 5.20
Rishard Matthews 7.10 jermain kearse- target 9,5,3 4.9 2.20
Jarvis Landry 7.00 4 3.00
Allen Hurns 6.80 4.2 2.60
Tyrell Williams 6.60 I DIDN’T WAIT LONG ENOUGH 17.5 -10.90
Paul Richardson 6.60 6.5 0.10
Mohamed Sanu 6.30 0.7 5.60
Jamison Crowder 6.10 -0.7 6.80
Marvin Jones 6.00 4.2 1.80
T.Y. Hilton 6.00 3 3.00
TE WEEK 4 PROJECTION
Rob Gronkowski 12.40 8 4.40
Travis Kelce 11.50 17.4 -5.90
Zach Ertz 9.30 8.1 1.20
Delanie Walker*** 9.00 5.1 3.90
Jason Witten 8.10 0.9 7.20
Kyle Rudolph 8.00 3.4 4.60
Jack Doyle*** 7.70 2.7 5.00
Jordan Reed*** 7.40 2.1 5.30
Martellus Bennett 7.20 3.9 3.30
Coby Fleener 7.10 2.1 5.00
Jesse James*** 7.00 4 3.00
Charles Clay 6.90 11.2 -4.30
Hunter Henry 6.20 7.8 -1.60
Jared Cook 6.00 4.6 1.40
David Njoku 6.00 1.1 4.90
K WEEK 4 PROJECTION ACTUAL
Matt Bryant 12.00 5 7.00
Will Lutz 11.00 8 3.00
Greg Zuerlein 9.00 23 -14.00
Matt Prater 9.00 6 3.00
Ryan Succop 8.00 2 6.00
Dan Bailey 8.00 6 2.00
Stephen Gostkowski 8.00 14 -6.00
Jake Elliott 8.00 16.9 -8.90
Justin Tucker 7.00 3 4.00
Mason Crosby 7.00 5 2.00
DEF WEEK 4 PROJECTION
Jacksonville 11.00 15 -4.00
Pittsburgh 11.00 14 -3.00
Baltimore 10.00 3 7.00
LA Chargers 10.00 1 9.00
Seattle 10.00 20 -10.00
Arizona 10.00 6 4.00
Kansas City 10.00 9 1.00
New England 9.00 5 4.00
Minnesota 8.00 7 1.00
Denver 8.00 9 -1.00

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