I don’t know how to say it, but I’m just going to say it. The Fantasy Football Draft Matrix® works, and so do my projections: The Most Accurate Projections in the Business®. Yes indeed… it was another highly successful week for me:
- My teams went 15-6, for a winning percentage of 71%.
- My 21 teams averaged 94.46 points/game.
- 12 of my 21 teams would make the playoffs (top 4 in their league) if the season ended today. That’s a 57% rate. Keep in mind the top 4 teams in 10 team leagues make the playoffs; which would be 40%. So in a world where only 40% of teams can qualify for post-season, I’m succeeding a rate of 57%; my teams are qualifying at a rate that is 43% percent better than the field.
- My overall winning percentage for weeks 1-4 is 61%
- As for my projections– and I’ve posted the data below just in case you don’t believe me– the average difference between my projections and the actual fantasy points scored by the 130 players I evaluated was only 0.61. That’s less than 1 point per player!
But first, let’s take a look at my highest scoring team this week:
And as promised, the data confirming that my projections were only off by 0.61 points/player:
| QB | WEEK 4 PROJECTION | NOTES | WEEK 4 ACTUAL POINTS | DIFFERENCE |
| Tom Brady | 23.40 | 20.48 | 2.92 | |
| Aaron Rodgers | 21.30 | 23.06 | -1.76 | |
| Ruselll Wilson | 19.20 | 27.6 | -8.40 | |
| Drew Brees | 19.00 | 19.02 | -0.02 | |
| Marcus Mariota | 17.60 | 15.74 | 1.86 | |
| Dak Prescott | 17.50 | 22.58 | -5.08 | |
| Carson Wentz | 17.30 | 15.08 | 2.22 | |
| Trevor Siemien | 17.10 | 11.26 | 5.84 | |
| Matt Ryan | 16.80 | 8.48 | 8.32 | |
| Philip Rivers | 16.70 | 19.88 | -3.18 | |
| Carson Palmer | 16.50 | 16.38 | 0.12 | |
| Cam Newton*** | 16.40 | 33.04 | -16.64 | |
| Derek Carr | 16.30 | 9.72 | 6.58 | |
| Alex Smith | 16.20 | 27.32 | -11.12 | |
| Matthew Stafford | 16.00 | 10.06 | 5.94 | |
| RB | WEEK 4 PROJECTION | |||
| Kareem Hunt | 18.80 | 12.1 | 6.70 | |
| Devonta Freeman | 17.20 | 13.8 | 3.40 | |
| Toddy Gurley | 15.80 | 27.5 | -11.70 | |
| Ty Montgomery*** | 13.70 | 2.8 | 10.90 | |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 13.50 | 25.9 | -12.40 | |
| Jordan Howard | 13.40 | 12.3 | 1.10 | |
| Leonard Fournette | 13.00 | 20.5 | -7.50 | |
| Melvin Gordon*** | 12.90 | 2.9 | 10.00 | |
| Le’Veon Bell | 11.00 | 30.6 | -19.60 | |
| Dalvin Cook | 10.30 | 11.4 | -1.10 | |
| LeSean McCoy | 9.90 | 10.8 | -0.90 | |
| C.J. Anderson | 9.70 | 11.2 | -1.50 | |
| Jay Ajayi*** | 9.60 | 5.4 | 4.20 | |
| Carlos Hyde*** | 9.50 | 9.5 | 0.00 | |
| Chris Thompson | 9.50 | 0.7 | 8.80 | |
| Lamar Miller | 9.40 | 25.1 | -15.70 | |
| DeMarco Murray | 8.90 | 3.5 | 5.40 | |
| Mike Gillislee | 8.90 | 4.9 | 4.00 | |
| Marshawn Lynch | 8.60 | overrated | 1.2 | 7.40 |
| Mark Ingram | 8.20 | 6.2 | 2.00 | |
| Terrance West | 8.10 | -0.7 | 8.80 | |
| LeGarrette Blount | 8.00 | 15.6 | -7.60 | |
| Tarik Cohen | 7.50 | 4.8 | 2.70 | |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7.20 | 4.9 | 2.30 | |
| Frank Gore | 7.10 | 8 | -0.90 | |
| Joe Mixon | 7.10 | 4.8 | 2.30 | |
| Chris Carson | 7.00 | 6 | 1.00 | |
| Tevin Coleman | 7.00 | 14.4 | -7.40 | |
| Duke Johnson*** | 6.80 | 12 | -5.20 | |
| Rob Kelley*** | 6.70 | 2.3 | 4.40 | |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 6.60 | 10.8 | -4.20 | |
| Javorius Allen | 6.60 | 4.4 | 2.20 | |
| James White | 6.50 | X- Dont get too excited about his 10.1 pts last week. | 5.4 | 1.10 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 6.50 | 4.8 | 1.70 | |
| Ameer Abdullah | 6.40 | X-2 consec 8.6 weeks | 16.9 | -10.50 |
| Chris Johnson | 6.40 | 6.3 | 0.10 | |
| Bilal Powell | 6.00 | 25 | -19.00 | |
| Derrick Henry*** | 6.00 | 0.7 | 5.30 | |
| Andre Ellington | 5.90 | 10.4 | -4.50 | |
| Jamaal Charles | 5.80 | X-avg 5.1 | 4.7 | 1.10 |
| WR | WEEK 4 PROJECTION | |||
| Antonio Brown | 13.60 | 3.4 | 10.20 | |
| Odell Beckham | 12.80 | 9 | 3.80 | |
| Jordy Nelson | 12.30 | 19.5 | -7.20 | |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 10.40 | 2.7 | 7.70 | |
| Tyreek Hill | 10.20 | reeval | 3.5 | 6.70 |
| DeVante Parker | 10.20 | 6.9 | 3.30 | |
| Stefon Diggs | 10.10 | x-sell high | 9.8 | 0.30 |
| Chris Hogan | 10.00 | 12 | -2.00 | |
| Mike Evans | 10.00 | 12.7 | -2.70 | |
| Julio Jones*** | 9.90 | 3 | 6.90 | |
| Dez Bryant | 9.10 | 9.8 | -0.70 | |
| Michael Thomas | 9.10 | x-miss your chance to trade | 14.9 | -5.80 |
| Doug Baldwin*** | 9.00 | 5.5 | 3.50 | |
| Sammy Watkins*** | 9.00 | 1.7 | 7.30 | |
| Davante Adams | 8.90 | 7.3 | 1.60 | |
| A.J. Green | 8.90 | 12.3 | -3.40 | |
| DeAndre Hopkis | 8.80 | 16.7 | -7.90 | |
| Demaryius Thomas | 8.70 | 1.1 | 7.60 | |
| Brandin Cooks | 8.70 | Brandon Marshall | 4.2 | 4.50 |
| Adam Thielen | 8.60 | 3.9 | 4.70 | |
| Golden Tate | 8.60 | 3.1 | 5.50 | |
| Keenan Allen | 8.50 | 13.8 | -5.30 | |
| Amari Cooper*** | 8.40 | 0.9 | 7.50 | |
| Pierre Garcon | 8.20 | 3.6 | 4.60 | |
| Alshon Jeffery | 8.20 | 8.9 | -0.70 | |
| Willie Snead*** | 0.00 | questionable | 0 | 0.00 |
| Martavis Bryant*** | 8.00 | 4.8 | 3.20 | |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 8.00 | 9.2 | -1.20 | |
| J.J. Nelson*** | 7.40 | don’t overreact | 3.4 | 4.00 |
| Kenny Stills*** | 7.40 | 1.3 | 6.10 | |
| DeSean Jackson | 7.20 | 2 | 5.20 | |
| Rishard Matthews | 7.10 | jermain kearse- target 9,5,3 | 4.9 | 2.20 |
| Jarvis Landry | 7.00 | 4 | 3.00 | |
| Allen Hurns | 6.80 | 4.2 | 2.60 | |
| Tyrell Williams | 6.60 | I DIDN’T WAIT LONG ENOUGH | 17.5 | -10.90 |
| Paul Richardson | 6.60 | 6.5 | 0.10 | |
| Mohamed Sanu | 6.30 | 0.7 | 5.60 | |
| Jamison Crowder | 6.10 | -0.7 | 6.80 | |
| Marvin Jones | 6.00 | 4.2 | 1.80 | |
| T.Y. Hilton | 6.00 | 3 | 3.00 | |
| TE | WEEK 4 PROJECTION | |||
| Rob Gronkowski | 12.40 | 8 | 4.40 | |
| Travis Kelce | 11.50 | 17.4 | -5.90 | |
| Zach Ertz | 9.30 | 8.1 | 1.20 | |
| Delanie Walker*** | 9.00 | 5.1 | 3.90 | |
| Jason Witten | 8.10 | 0.9 | 7.20 | |
| Kyle Rudolph | 8.00 | 3.4 | 4.60 | |
| Jack Doyle*** | 7.70 | 2.7 | 5.00 | |
| Jordan Reed*** | 7.40 | 2.1 | 5.30 | |
| Martellus Bennett | 7.20 | 3.9 | 3.30 | |
| Coby Fleener | 7.10 | 2.1 | 5.00 | |
| Jesse James*** | 7.00 | 4 | 3.00 | |
| Charles Clay | 6.90 | 11.2 | -4.30 | |
| Hunter Henry | 6.20 | 7.8 | -1.60 | |
| Jared Cook | 6.00 | 4.6 | 1.40 | |
| David Njoku | 6.00 | 1.1 | 4.90 | |
| K | WEEK 4 PROJECTION | ACTUAL | ||
| Matt Bryant | 12.00 | 5 | 7.00 | |
| Will Lutz | 11.00 | 8 | 3.00 | |
| Greg Zuerlein | 9.00 | 23 | -14.00 | |
| Matt Prater | 9.00 | 6 | 3.00 | |
| Ryan Succop | 8.00 | 2 | 6.00 | |
| Dan Bailey | 8.00 | 6 | 2.00 | |
| Stephen Gostkowski | 8.00 | 14 | -6.00 | |
| Jake Elliott | 8.00 | 16.9 | -8.90 | |
| Justin Tucker | 7.00 | 3 | 4.00 | |
| Mason Crosby | 7.00 | 5 | 2.00 | |
| DEF | WEEK 4 PROJECTION | |||
| Jacksonville | 11.00 | 15 | -4.00 | |
| Pittsburgh | 11.00 | 14 | -3.00 | |
| Baltimore | 10.00 | 3 | 7.00 | |
| LA Chargers | 10.00 | 1 | 9.00 | |
| Seattle | 10.00 | 20 | -10.00 | |
| Arizona | 10.00 | 6 | 4.00 | |
| Kansas City | 10.00 | 9 | 1.00 | |
| New England | 9.00 | 5 | 4.00 | |
| Minnesota | 8.00 | 7 | 1.00 | |
| Denver | 8.00 | 9 | -1.00 |
