Oh, ​Wait… how did I do last week?

Posted: October 11, 2017 in News, Opinion, Analysis

READ THE THE FOLLOWING SENTENCE (then read it again):

Due to circumstance beyond my control, I started Rob Gronkowski (inactive) in 6 out of my 21 leagues… but still managed to win 11 and lose 10 games this week.

Think about that for a second when you are using some other site to set your lineups.  Six of my teams had ZERO points at the TE position where I usually average 10 ppg.

And I don’t think I’ve ever had more accurate projections in my life.  One of my readers challenged my ranking of Latavius Murray; he turned out to be right.  My forecast was anything but immaculate on that one.

But you know what? I also didn’t predict that Todd Gurley would have 3 points! THREE!  So, as always I say this: Nobody kNows Nothing… therefore its the overall accuracy that matters.  It’s more important than to set a good lineup than debating one player vs another.

So when I say that in Week 5 that my projections– on average, per player- was off by only 0.03, do you get what I’m saying?  Yahoo doesn’t.  NFL.com doesn’t.  Nor does ESPN.  That’s why I say my projections are The Most Accurate In the Business.

Here’s the proof:

NOTE: THESE ARE NOT WEEK 6 PROJECTIONS!

 

RANK QB WEEK 5 PROJECTION WEEK 5 ACTUAL POINTS SB (MINUS) ACTUAL
1 Tom Brady 22.10 12.62 9.48
2 Aaron Rodgers 21.20 24.04 -2.84
3 Dak Prescott 18.50 29.74 -11.24
4 Russell Wilson 17.00 11.52 5.48
5 Eli Manning 16.70 13.00 3.70
6 Carson Wentz 16.60 27.26 -10.66
7 Philip Rivers 16.60 20.82 -4.22
8 Cam Newton 16.50 26.20 -9.70
9 Ben Roethlisberger 16.40 2.58 13.82
10 Alex Smith 16.30 26.68 -10.38
11 Deshaun Watson 16.20 35.54 -19.34
12 Andy Dalton 16.00 13.32 2.68
13 Jared Goff 16.00 7.72 8.28
14 Matthew Stafford 16.00 15.16 0.84
15 Jameis Winston 14.00 14.86 -0.86
RANK RB WEEK 5 PROJECTION WEEK 5 ACTUAL POINTS
34 Aaron Jones 6.30 19.4 -13.10
19 Ameer Abdullah*** 9.00 3.4 5.60
28 Andre Ellington 6.80 6.3 0.50
12 Bilal Powell 9.90 3.3 6.60
9 Carlos Hyde*** 10.60 1.8 8.80
33 Chris Johnson 6.30 29.0 -22.70
21 Christian McCaffrey 7.70 9.8 -2.10
36 D’Onta Foreman 6.20 1.7 4.50
13 DeMarco Murray 9.80 4.9 4.90
35 Derrick Henry 6.30 0.9 5.40
20 Doug Martin 7.90 14.2 -6.30
17 Duke Johnson 9.10 14.3 -5.20
32 Eddie Lacy 6.40 2.8 3.60
3 Ezekiel Elliott 15.60 13.2 2.40
23 Frank Gore 7.50 8.6 -1.10
30 Giovani Bernard 6.50 3.2 3.30
24 Isaiah Crowell 7.50 6.7 0.80
38 Jacquizz Rodgers 5.80 1.5 4.30
31 James White 6.50 6.3 0.20
39 Javorius Allen 5.70 14.5 -8.80
11 Jay Ajayi 10.00 5.9 4.10
22 Joe Mixon 7.60 11.1 -3.50
37 Jonathan Stewart 5.80 4.4 1.40
6 Jordan Howard 12.00 7.6 4.40
1 Kareem Hunt 17.80 11.6 6.20
14 Lamar Miller 9.80 8.9 0.90
15 Latavius Murray 9.70 4.3 5.40
2 Le’Veon Bell 16.80 9.3 7.50
10 LeGarrette Blount 10.30 7.4 2.90
5 Leonard Fournette 13.20 30.4 -17.20
8 LeSean McCoy 11.60 8.9 2.70
27 Marshawn Lynch 6.91 11.3 -4.39
7 Melvin Gordon 11.90 28.3 -16.40
16 Mike Gillislee 9.70 5.2 4.50
18 Tarik Cohen 9.00 0.7 8.30
40 Theo Riddick 5.50 5.3 0.20
4 Todd Gurley 13.90 3 10.90
26 Ty Montgomery*** 0.00 0 0.00
29 Wayne Gallman 6.60 8.2 -1.60
25 Wendell Smallwood 0.00 0 0.00
RANK WR WEEK 5 PROJECTION WEEK 5 ACTUAL POINTS
10 A.J. Green 9.00 22.9 -13.90
29 Adam Thielen 6.60 4.5 2.10
36 Allen Hurns 5.50 4.90 0.60
15 Alshon Jeffery 7.60 3.1 4.50
25 Amari Cooper 6.80 0.8 6.00
2 Antonio Brown 11.90 15.7 -3.80
9 Brandin Cooks 9.20 8.5 0.70
3 Chris Hogan 11.30 13.4 -2.10
5 DeAndre Hopkins 10.90 23.2 -12.30
24 DeSean Jackson 6.90 10.60 -3.70
20 DeVante Parker 7.10 0.6 6.50
35 Devin Funchess 5.70 11.3 -5.60
6 Dez Bryant 9.70 11.2 -1.50
17 Donte Moncrief 7.40 3.2 4.20
13 Doug Baldwin 8.30 3.7 4.60
14 Golden Tate 8.20 4.8 3.40
26 Jarvis Landry 6.80 10.4 -3.60
37 Jeremy Maclin 5.50 4.3 1.20
40 Jermaine Kearse 5.00 9.8 -4.80
1 Jordy Nelson 12.00 8.4 3.60
11 Keenan Allen 9.00 6.7 2.30
27 Kelvin Benjamin 6.70 11.8 -5.10
38 Kenny Stills 5.30 1.3 4.00
18 Larry Fitzgerald 7.30 5.1 2.20
39 Marqise Lee 5.00 4.9 0.10
28 Martavis Bryant 6.70 3.4 3.30
22 Michael Crabtree*** 7.00 14.2 -7.20
8 Mike Evans 9.30 4.9 4.40
4 Odell Beckham*** 11.20 16.5 -5.30
21 Paul Richardson 7.00 3.5 3.50
19 Pierre Garcon 7.20 9.4 -2.20
16 Randall Cobb 7.40 2.9 4.50
30 Rishard Matthews 6.30 3.1 3.20
33 Sammy Watkins 5.90 0 5.90
7 Stefon Diggs 9.60 0.4 9.20
32 Sterling Shepard 6.10 0.90 5.20
23 T.Y. Hilton 6.90 17.70 -10.80
12 Tyreek Hill 8.90 6.8 2.10
31 Tyrell Williams 6.20 2.20 4.00
34 Will Fuller 5.80 18.2 -12.40
RANK TE WEEK 5 PROJECTION WEEK 5 ACTUAL POINTS
1 Travis Kelce 11.40 9.8 1.60
2 Zach Ertz 8.00 12.1 -4.10
3 Charles Clay 7.70 3.1 4.60
4 Delanie Walker 7.60 2.5 5.10
5 Kyle Rudolph 7.60 10.5 -2.90
6 Cameron Brate 7.60 12.8 -5.20
7 Jimmy Graham 6.90 9.7 -2.80
8 Evan Engram 5.70 0 5.70
9 Jason Witten 5.40 4.1 1.30
10 Jack Doyle*** 0.00 0 0.00
11 Martellus Bennett 4.90 5.3 -0.40
12 Zach Miller 4.40 9.9 -5.50
13 Hunter Henry 4.30 10.2 -5.90
14 Eric Ebron 4.20 0.6 3.60
15 Jared Cook 4.20 0.5 3.70
RANK K WEEK 5 PROJECTION WEEK 5 ACTUAL POINTS
1 Stephen Gostkowski 11.00 13 -2.00
2 Greg Zuerlein 10.00 4 6.00
3 Jake Elliott 10.00 10 0.00
4 Ryan Succop 9.00 4 5.00
5 Justin Tucker 9.00 12 -3.00
6 Graham Gano 9.00 9 0.00
7 Dan Bailey 9.00 7 2.00
8 Giorgio Tavecchio 8.00 5 3.00
9 Robbie Gould 8.00 11 -3.00
10 Nick Folk 8.00 2 6.00
RANK DEF WEEK 5 PROJECTION WEEK 5 ACTUAL POINTS
1 Philadelphia 11.00 8 3.00
2 Pittsburgh 10.00 5 5.00
3 Minnesota 10.00 6 4.00
4 Kansas City 10.00 10 0.00
5 Oakland 9.00 0 9.00
6 Jacksonville 9.00 28 -19.00
7 New York Giants 8.00 4 4.00
8 New York Jets 8.00 8 0.00
9 Seattle 8.00 16 -8.00
10 Detroit 8.00 3 5.00
AVERAGE DIFFERENECE:
-0.03

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