Analyzing​ the Analysts: NFL Fantasy Live (week of 11/13/17)

Posted: November 24, 2017 in News, Opinion, Analysis
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Michael Fabiano. Opera Star. Handsome son of a B.

Here’s an exercise that I’ve always wanted to try.  Inexplicably, the NFL Network feels it necessary to give an hour per week of televised fantasy football analysis by Michael Fabiano, Akbar Gbajabiamila, Marcas Grant, Adam Rank, James Koh, Cynthia Frelund, Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt “Money” Smith and probably another guy or two who aren’t important enough to remember off the top of my head..  If nothing else, it’s entertaining for its cross-over appeal to pro wrestling.  So I took a week’s worth of notes way back last week (week 11) to compare their predictions and projections with what actually happened that week. So here were go; a litmus test of the accuracy of the analysis found on NFL Network’s NFL Fantasy Live.


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Results:

  • Correct Predictions: 63
  • Incorrect Predictions: 111
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The Other Michael Fabiano. Fantasy Football analyst. Sucks it in when he smiles. (I do the same.)

Wow.  Even the weathermen are laughing at these counterfactual prophecies. For every accurate thing these experts come up with during the course of a week, they were incorrect twice as many times.  Think you might want to listen to a forecaster like me; one whose point projections for over 130 players each week is off by less than 1 point on average?  There’s a reason why I make the playoffs at a rate greater than 75% (96% last year).  If you aren’t using my weekly projections, you are doing yourself a major disservice.

Look… There’s a hell of a lot of data below.  Are you going to read it?  Probably not.  So digest this revelation, and then read on if you want. In “Sit or Start” segments, Michael Fabiano is 10-26.  He’s only correct in only 2 out of 17 “Start” recommendations, and correct in 8 out of 19 stabs at “Sit” recommendations.  Overall: He’s correct  10 out of 36 times.  A flip of a coin would be more accurate.  Literally….

Monday 11/13/17

  • Cowboys struggled without Ezekiel Elliott.
    • Fabiano “Alfred Morris is still the guy.” (CORRECT)
    • Akbar “There has to be a downgrade for Prescott. (CORRECT)
  • How good are the Saints RB’s?
    • Fabiano “Saints are a run-first team.” (INCORRECT- 41 PASS ATTEMPTS VS 23 RUSH ATTEMPTS)
  • Is there a better QB-WR combo than Goff and Woods?
    • Marcas Grant likes Goff/Woods better Keenum/Thielen. Fabiano does not. (GRANT IS INCORRECT Goff/Woods = 17.9pts, Keenum/Thielen = 35.5. pts)
  •  Is the No Fly Zone era in Denver over?
    • Fabiano is no longer afraid to start players against Denver. (CORRECT- Dalton put up 18+)
  • Fabiano was “dead wrong” about Kirk Cousins facing the Vikings.
  • What do you make of Demarco Murray’s game
    • Grant explained his inflated 25.2 fantasy points were due to 3 TDs
  • Akbar pointed out that Case Keenum was his best pickup so far.
  • Austin Ekeler is “the strongest guy on the team,” said Matt “Money” Smith
  • Devonte Freman left the game with a concussion for the 2nd time this season.
  • Aaron Jones will miss 1 month due to a sprained MCL. Ty Montgomery was also injured. Is it worth picking up Jamaal Williams
    • Fabiano doesn’t love him, but with continuing bye weeks he’s worth adding. (INCORRECT- single-digit points.)
  • Will Fuller left the game with broken ribs.
  • Maurice Jones-Drew predicts more production for Christian McCaffrey though it will be hard to run against the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football. (???- McCaffrey had a bye in week 11)
  • Fabiano has Cam Newton projected for 18 fantasy points. (INCORRECT b/c Newton had a bye; why are these guys recommending Panthers when they are on a bye?)
  • Akbar thinks Devin Funches will have a big game (INCORRECT- HE HAS A BYE 12 pts)
  • Kenyan Drake had more snaps than the other Miami RBs, and Fabian projects 11.5 points. (INCORRECT: 1.4 pts)
  • MJD knows Jarvin Landry will catch “a ton of passes”.  His projection: 18 ppr points. (CORRECT)
  • Akbar likes DeVante Parker. (INCORRECT; 2.6 pts)
  • Add or drop?
    • Jordy Nelson?  Akbar says to drop him. (CORRECT)
    • Bilal Powell is a keeper for Fabiano because we don’t know Forte’s status. (INCORRECT; 1.6 pts)
    • MJD is dropping Doug Martin. (CORRECT)
    • Akbar says to keep Derick Henry as a handcuff only.  (INCORRECT; DeMarco Murray isn’t worth owning so why handcuff him: only 1 double-digit game in last 4 weeks, 4.7 pts in week 11)
    • Fabiano stated, “you can’t cut Keenan Allen.” (I’m not going to assess this, why would you could him?)
  • Fantasy vs Reality
    • Can DeMarco Murray score 15+ against the Steelers:
      • MJD: “I think he can.” (INCORRECT)
      • Fabiano: “Can he? Yes.  Will he? No.” (CORRECT)
    • What was the bigger piece missing from the Cowboys: Tyron Smith or Ezekiel Elliott?
      • MJD: “Zeke.”
      • Fabiano: “I think the missed Tyron Smith more.”
    • Who is their year’s fantasy rookie of the year?
      • MJD: “I have to go Alvin Kamara.”
      • Fabiano: “Kareem Hunt… on pace for 2,000 scrimmage yards.”
    • Which QB would you rather start the rest of the year: Drew Brees or Kirk Cousins? (TOO EARLY TO TELL)
      • MJD: “Kirk Cousins… they have to throw the ball to win.”
      • Fabiano: “I agree… Drew Brees is not the same QB he was.”
    • Which Vikings RB would you rather have the rest of the year? (TOO EARLY TO TELL)
      • MJD: “Latavius Murray.”
      • Fabiano: “It’s been McKinnon who has seen more snaps and seen more touches overall.”
  • All-Playoff-Push Team (top players over the next 3 weeks) by Akbar and Grant
    • Russell Wilson
    • LeSean McCoy
    • Brandin Cooks
    • Jared Cook
  • MJD’s Mo Money Wire Pickups
    • Austin Ekeler- yes (CORRECT)
    • C.J. Beathard: no  (NOT ASSESSING… too obvious)
    • Case Keenum- yes (CORRECT)
    • Marqise Lee- yes (INCORRECT; 4.5 pts)
  • Players to trade for:
    • Fabiano: Leonard Fournette
    • Grant: Michael Thomas
    • Akbar: A.J. Green
  • Players to trade away:
    • Fabiano: Marshawn Lynch
    • Grant: Lamar Miller
    • Akbar: Demaryius Thomas

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Tuesday 11/14/17 – Wednesday 11/15/17

  • Best Starts:
    • Fabiano: Alex Smith (INCORRECT: 9.9 pts)
    • Rank: Mark Ingram  (NOT ASSESSING THIS, IT’S TOO OBVIOUS)
    • Akbar: Tyreek Hill (INCORRECT; 8.4 pts)
    • Fabiano: Jason Witten (INCORRECT; 0.7 pts)
    • Rank: Jaguars Defense (NOT ASSESSING THIS, IT’S TOO OBVIOUS)
  • Worst Starts:
    • Fabiano: Marcus Mariota (INCORRECT; 18.74 pts)
    • Rank: Thomas Rawls  (NOT ASSESSING THIS, IT’S TOO OBVIOUS)
    • Akbar: Sammy Watkins (CORRECT)
    • Fabiano: Charles Clay (NOT ASSESSING THIS, IT’S TOO OBVIOUS)
    • Rank: Raiders Defense (CORRECT)
  • Best QB to pick up as insurance for Philip Rivers
    • Fabiano: Eli Manning (INCORRECT)
    • Rank: Jay Cutler (INCORRECT)
    • Akbar: Brock Osweiler (CORRECT; 15+ pts)
  • Waiver Wire:
    • Fabiano: Rex Burkhead  (INCORRECT)
    • Akbar: Austin Ekeler (CORRECT)
    • Rank: Blake Bortles (INCORRECT)
    • Fabiano: Marqise Lee (INCORRECT)
    • Akbar: Case Keenum (INCORRECT)
  • Star vs Sleeper
    • Akbar: Brees over Fitzpatrick (CORRECT)
    • Rank: Jeremy Maclin over Demaryius Thomas (INCORRECT)
    • Akbar: DeMarco Murray over Latavius Murray (INCORRECT)
  • Must-See Matchup
    • Akbar: Wentz over Prescott (CORRECT)
    • Rank: McCoy over Gordon (CORRECT)
    • Akbar: Doug Baldwin over Julio Jones (CORRECT)
    • Rank: Cooks over Crabtree (CORRECT)
  • Toughest Schedules Weeks 11-13
    • T.Y. Hilton, Matthew Stafford, Todd Gurley, A.J. Green, Alfred Morris
  • Toughest Playoff Schedules:
    • Russell Wilson, Ty Montgomery, DeAndre Hopkins, Marshawn Lynch
  • Fabiano’s Top 5 Players to Drop: Tarik Cohen, Randall Cobb, Ben Roethlisberger, Eddie Lacy, LeGarrette Blount. (TOO SOON TO TELL)
  • Waiver Wire Depp Drive:
    • Fabiano: Dontrelle Inman  (INCORRECT)
    • Akbar: Bruce Ellington (CORRECT; 6+ pts)
    • Rank: Terron Ward (INCORRECT)
    • Smith: T.J. Yeldon (INCORRECT)

 

Thursday 11/16/17

  • Headlines:
    • Tyrod Taylor benched for rookie Nathan Peterman.
      • Fabiano: “I really like the Chargers Defense now.” Continue to play LeSean McCoy. (NOT ASSESSING THIS, TOO OBVIOUS)
    • Case Keenum will start for Minnesota.
    • Chargers are encouraged by Philip Rivers progress (concussion).
      • Akbar: Fewer than 20 pts in 8 of the last 9 games.
    • Rob Kelley placed on IR
      • Fabiano: “Perine should be added in all fantasy leagues.”
  • Waiver Wire Most Added: Robert Woods, Kenyan Drake, Jamaal Williams,
  • Lit or Quit for Thursday night game
    • Akbar: Marcus Mariot is lit (CORRECT)
    • Brant: Ben Roethlisberger is “lit-ish” (“will get you 15 fantasy points.”)  (INCORRECT- scored 26+ pts)
    • Fabiano: DeMarco Murray is lit. (INCORRECT)
    • Akbar: Le’Veon Bell lit (“24 fantasy points this game”) (INCORRECT- 10.3 pts)
    • Grant: quit Rishard Matthews (INCORRECT; 17+ pts)
    • Fabiano: Antonio Brown is lit. (CORRECT)
    • Akbar: JuJu Smith Schuster is lit. (INCORRECT-  4pts)
    • Grant: quit Delanie Walker (CORRECT)
  • More Thursday Likes
    • Fabiano: Steelers Defense (CORRECT)
    • Rank: Le’Veon Bell (NOT ASSESSING THIS, TOO OBVIOUS)
    • Grant: Antonio Brown (NOT ASSESSING THIS, TOO OBVIOUS)
    • Akbar: Corey Davis (sleeper) (INCORRECT)
    • Grant: Jonnu Smith (sleeper)  (INCORRECT- literally scored ZERO points)
  • Fabiano Start:
    • Alex Smith (INCORRECT)
    • Derek Carr(INCORRECT)
    • Drew Brees (NOT ASSESSING; TOO OBVIOUS)
    • Kirk Cousins (NOT ASSESSING; TOO OBVIOUS)
    • Carson Wentz (NOT ASSESSING; TOO OBVIOUS)
    • Evan Engram (INCORRECT)
    • Jason Witten (INCORRECT)
    • Cameron Brate (INCORRECT)
    • Vernon Davis (INCORRECT)
    • Jordan Howard (NOT ASSESSING; TOO OBVIOUS)
    • Patriots RBs (CORRECT (DION LEWS), INCORRECT, INCORRECT)
    • Jerick McKinnon (INCORRECT)
    • Marshawn Lynch (INCORRECT)
    • Chris Thompson (INJURED)
    • Jarvis Landry (CORRECT)
    • DeVante Parker (INCORRECT)
    • Michael Crabtree(INCORRECT) 
    • Sterling Shepard (INCORRECT)
    • Marqise Lee (INCORRECT)
    • Jamison Crowder (INCORRECT)
    • (NOTE: FABIANO WENT 2 CORRECT, 15 INCORRECT IN THIS SEGMENT)
  • Fabiano Sleepers
    • Jay Cutler (INCORRECT)
    • Blake Bortles (INCORRECT)
    • Tyler Kroft (INCORRECT)
    • Javorius Allen (INCORRECT)
    • JuJu Smith-Schuster (INCORRECT)
  • Fabiano Sit:
    • Matt Ryan (INCORRECT)
    • Matthew Stafford (INCORRECT)
    • Brett Hundley  (NOT ASSESSING THIS, TOO OBVIOUS)
    • Andy Dalton  (INCORRECT)
    • Philip Rivers (INCORRECT)
    • Eric Ebron (CORRECT)
    • Charles Clay (CORRECT)
    • Coby Fleener (INCORRECT)
    • Martellus Bennett (CORRECT)
    • Lamar Miller (INCORRECT)
    • Alfred Morris (CORRECT)
    • Joe Mixon (CORRECT)
    • Austin Ekeler (INCORRECT)
    • Tarik Cohen (INCORRECT)
    • Kelvin Benjamin (CORRECT)
    • Marvin Jones (INCORRECT)
    • Sammy Watkins (CORRECT)
    • J.J. Nelson (CORRECT)
    • Mohamed Sanu (INCORRECT)
    • Davante Adams (beware) (INCORRECT)
    • (NOTE: FABIANO WENT 8 CORRECT AND 11 INCORRECT IN THIS SEGMENT)
  • Fix my Flex
    • Akbar: Kamara over Gordon (CORRECT)
    • Grant: Sterlin Shepard over DeMarco Murray and Brandin Cooks (INCORRECT)
    • Akbar: Jay Ajayi over Rex Burkhead and Nelson Agholor (CORRECT)
    • Grant: Joe Mixon over C.J. Anderson and Rod Smith  (INCORRECT)
    • Akbar: Stefon Diggs over Alshon Jeffery (INCORRECT)
  • Buy
    • Fabiano: Jay Ajayi, Keenan Allen (TOO EARLY TO TELL)
    • Akbar: Marcus Mariota, A.J. Green(TOO EARLY TO TELL)
  • Sell
    • Fabiano: Marshawn Lynch, T.Y. Hilton (TOO EARLY TO TELL)
    • Akbar: Kareem Hunt, Larry Fitzgerald(TOO EARLY TO TELL)
  • Ride or Die
    • Grant: Melvin Gordon, Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Thomas, Tyler Kroft, Saints Defense.(TOO EARLY TO TELL)
  • Fabiano’s 5 Deep WR Sleepers:
    • Seth Roberts (INCORRECT; 1.6 pts)
    • Keelan Cole (INCORRECT; 2.4 pts)
    • Bruce Ellington (CORRECT; 6.8)
    • Dontrelle Inman (INCORRECT; 4.3 pts)
    • Tyler Lockett
  • Matt Smiths’ Money Men Value Players:
    • Eli Manning (INCORRECT)
    • Austin Ekeler (CORRECT)
    • Sterling Shepard (INCORRECT)
    • Jared Cook (INCORRECT)
    • Chargers Defense (NOT ASSESSING THIS, TOO OBVIOUS)
  • Big and Bold Predictions
    • Akbar: Carson Wentz 350 yds and 5 tds (INCORRECT 168/2TDS)
    • Grant: Neither QB in Rams vs Vikings will top 250 yds (CORRECT)
    • Fabiano: Alex Smith, Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Harrison Butker will all finish in Top 5 of their position. (INCORRECT)
    • Smith: Rams Defense is going to be the highest scoring Ram this week. (INCORRECT;  They had ZERO pts))
  • Perfect Picks: Tom Brady, Mark Ingram, Antonio Brown, Travis Kelce, Jake Elliott, Jaguars Defense (Not going to assess… impossible to predict)
  • Stream Team by Marcus Grant:
    • Ryan Fitzpatrick (CORRECT)
    • Tyler Croft (CORRECT)
    • Saints Defense. (CORRECT)
  • Premium Value by Fabiano:
    • Rex Burkhead (INCORRECT)
    • Vernon Davis (INCORRECT)
    • DeVante Parker (INCORRECT)
  • Hot Take
    • Julio Jones will not score 2 tds this week. (CORRECT)
    • Orleans Darwa will not out-score Kareem Hunt (INCORRECT)
    • Michael Fabiano would not be surprised if Mitchell Trubisky outscored Matthew Stafford.   (INCORRECT)
      • Grant and Rank disagree. (CORRECT) (CORRECT)
    • DeMarco Murray will not be the leading rusher on Thursday (Fabiano, Grant, Rank) (NOT ASSESSING… too obvious)
  • Climbing the Ranks (Ranking Rookies):
    1. Alvin Kamara
    2. Christian McCaffrey
    3. Kareem Hunt
    4. Leonard Fournette
    5. JuJu Smith-Schuster
  • Hype Train:
    • Austin Ekeler (Grant: Pass) (INCORRECT) (Rank: Onboard) (CORRECT)
    • Brandon LaFell (Grant and Rank pass) (CORRECT)
    • Davante Adams (Grant and Rank Onboard) (CORRECT)
    • Mitchell Trubisky (Grant: Pass) (CORRECT) (Rank: Onboard) (INCORRECT)
  • The Choice is Simple:
    • Fabiano: Drew Brees over Kirk Cousins (INCORRECT), Alvin Kamara over Leonard Fournette (CORRECT), Dez Bryant over Robert Woods (CORRECT)
  • Pump the Breaks:
    • Fabiano: Jared Goff  (CORRECT)
    • Grant: Jordan Howard (INCORRECT)
    • Rank: DeMarco Murray (CORRECT)
    • Fabiano: Austin Ekeler (INCORRECT)
    • Grant: Case Keenum (INCORRECT)
    • Rank: Melvin Gordon (CORRECT)
  • The Wright Stuff (Cole’s favorites this week)
    • Kareem Hunt (INCORRECT)
    • DeAndre Hopkins (INCORRECT)
    • Drew Brees (CORRECT)
  • Projections
    • Fabiano: Roethlisberger 17.5 (CORRECT; though he had significantly more)
    • Grant: Eric Decker 3.5 (INCORRECT; 3.7)
    • Rank: Antonio Brown 21.1 (NOT ASSESSING, too obvious)

 

Friday 11/17/17

  • Sunday Slant
    • Fabiano: Wentz over Prescott  (CORRECT)
    • Rank: McCoy over Gordon (INCORRECT)
    • Grant: Crabtree over Cooks (CORRECT)
    • Fabiano: Kelce over Engram (CORRECT)
    • Rank: Kamara over Thompson (CORRECT)
    • Grant: Rams Defense over Vikings Defense (INCORRECT)
  • Adam Rank says Antonio Brown is the best fantasy WR in the last 20 years.
  • Philip Rivers expects to play
  • Leonard Fournette did not practice. Grant likes T.J. Yeldon as a handcuff.
  • Tyron Smith will not play.  Temper expectations for Dak Prescott.
  • Cynthia Frelund
    • projects 74 yds 1 TD for Adrian Peterson… boom (INCORRECT)
    • Jerick McKinnon projects 3 rec, 61 scrimmage yards… bust
    • Julio Jones projection: 89 yds 1 TD… boom (INCORRECT)
    • Davante Adams: 3 rec, 41 yds… boom (INCORRECT)
  • Grant and Rank’s Like or Dislike
    • Like: Emmanuel Sanders, Tyler Kroft (INCORRECT), (INCORRECT)
    • Dislike: Doug Martin, Tevin Coleman (CORRECT), (INCORRECT)
  • What I’m hearing
    • Ty Montgomery unlikely to play.  Fabiano likes Jamaal Williams as an RB2 or Flex.
    • Rookie Dede Westbrook expects 200 yards in his debut.
  • Fantasy Stock Watch
    • Samaje Perine UP (CORRECT)
    • Tarik Cohen DOWN (INCORRECT)
    • Sterling Shepard UP (INCORRECT)
    • Jordy Nelson DOWN (CORRECT)
    • Rex Burkhead UP (INCORRECT)
    • Melvin Gordon DOWN (INCORRECT)
  • Fabiano’s QB Power Rankings:
    1. Tom Brady
    2. Alex Smith
    3. Russell Wilson
    4. Carson Wentz
    5. Drew Brees
    6. Derek Carr
    7. Kirk Cousins
    8. Dak Prescott
    9. Ben Roethlisberger
    10. Matthew Stafford
  • Fact or Fiction
    • Roethlisberger will be the leading QB this week 
      • Grant: Fact. Fabiano: Fiction.  (INCORRECT), (CORRECT)
    • Matt Ryan will score 20+
      • Grant: Fact. Fabiano: Fiction. (INCORRECT), (CORRECT)
    • Alfred Morris will score a TD
      • Grant: Fact. Fabiano: Fiction (INCORRECT), (CORRECT)
  • Week 11 Danger Zone: Extremely Deep Sleepers
    • Bruce Ellington (WR) (INCORRECT)
    • Demetrius Harris (TE), (INCORRECT)
  • Buy
    • Jay Ajayi (CORRECT)
    • DeVante Parker (INCORRECT)
  • Sell
    • A.J. Green (INCORRECT)
  • Don’t Trade
    • LeSean McCoy… has a favorable schedule
    • Russell Wilson… without Richard Sherman, Seattle will need to score more.
    • Michael Thomas… 10 targets/game since week 7.
  • Surprising Sleepers
    • Kenyan Drake (INCORRECT)
    • Blaine Gabbert (CORRECT)
    • Ryan Fitzpatrick (CORRECT)
    • Austin Ekeler (CORRECT)
    • Dontrell Inman (INCORRECT)

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