Updated Projections: Week 16

Posted: December 23, 2017 in Projections
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HUGE NEWS:  I’ve modified the way I compute projections and having tested this new method against all previous 15 weeks of this season, my numbers are more accurate than ever– just in time for the finals!


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RANK QB PROJECTION
1 Cam Newton, Car QB Q 22.6
2 Alex Smith, KC QB 19.7
3 Ben Roethlisberger, Pit QB 19.5
4 Russell Wilson, Sea QB 19.4
5 Blake Bortles, Jax QB 19.0
6 Tom Brady, NE QB 18.1
7 Case Keenum, Min QB 17.9
8 Nick Foles, Phi QB 17.5
9 Jameis Winston, TB QB 17.4
10 Drew Brees, NO QB 16.8
11 Matthew Stafford, Det QB 16.7
12 Tyrod Taylor, Buf QB 16.5
13 Kirk Cousins, Wsh QB 16.4
14 Philip Rivers, LAC QB 16.4
15 Dak Prescott, Dal QB 16.0
RANK RB PROJECTION
1 Todd Gurley II, LAR RB 20.5
2 Le’Veon Bell, Pit RB 20.1
3 Kareem Hunt, KC RB 19.0
4 Melvin Gordon, LAC RB 16.4
5 Mark Ingram, NO RB 16.3
6 LeSean McCoy, Buf RB Q 15.9
7 Alvin Kamara, NO RB 15.6
8 Devonta Freeman, Atl RB 15.3
9 Ezekiel Elliott, Dal RB 14.5
10 Leonard Fournette, Jax RB 13.2
11 Christian McCaffrey, Car RB 12.6
12 Kenyan Drake, Mia RB 11.8
13 Latavius Murray, Min RB 10.7
14 C.J. Anderson, Den RB 10.5
15 Jerick McKinnon, Min RB 9.9
16 Jordan Howard, Chi RB 9.7
17 Lamar Miller, Hou RB 9.7
18 Alex Collins, Bal RB 9.6
19 Carlos Hyde, SF RB 9.5
20 Jonathan Stewart, Car RB 9.5
21 Dion Lewis, NE RB 9.3
22 Jamaal Williams, GB RB 8.8
23 Duke Johnson Jr., Cle RB 8.7
24 Frank Gore, Ind RB 8.5
25 Derrick Henry, Ten RB 8.5
26 Marshawn Lynch, Oak RB 8.3
27 Javorius Allen, Bal RB 8.1
28 Bilal Powell, NYJ RB 7.9
29 Tevin Coleman, Atl RB Q 7.8
30 DeMarco Murray, Ten RB 7.7
31 Jay Ajayi, Phi RB 7.6
32 Isaiah Crowell, Cle RB Q 7.6
33 Theo Riddick, Det RB 7.0
34 Joe Mixon, Cin RB Q 6.9
35 Orleans Darkwa, NYG RB 6.9
36 ***Samaje Perine, Wsh RB 6.5
37 ***Kerwynn Williams, Ari RB Q 4.7
38 Peyton Barber, TB RB 4.2
39 ***James White, NE RB Q 3.9
40 Mike Davis, Sea RB 3.6
RANK WR PROJECTION
1 ***DeAndre Hopkins, Hou WR Q 14.4
2 Tyreek Hill, KC WR 13.0
3 Keelan Cole, Jax WR 12.4
4 Michael Thomas, NO WR 12.0
5 Michael Crabtree, Oak WR 11.0
6 Nelson Agholor, Phi WR 10.8
7 Keenan Allen, LAC WR 10.3
8 Alshon Jeffery, Phi WR 10.1
9 Brandin Cooks, NE WR 10.0
10 Julio Jones, Atl WR Q 9.9
11 Jarvis Landry, Mia WR 9.6
12 Sterling Shepard, NYG WR 9.5
13 Mike Evans, TB WR 9.2
14 Robby Anderson, NYJ WR Q 8.5
15 Rishard Matthews, Ten WR 8.4
16 Marvin Jones Jr., Det WR 8.3
17 Stefon Diggs, Min WR 8.1
18 JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pit WR 8.0
19 Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR 7.9
20 A.J. Green, Cin WR 7.9
21 Adam Thielen, Min WR 7.8
22 Josh Gordon, Cle WR 7.7
23 Dez Bryant, Dal WR 7.6
24 Martavis Bryant, Pit WR 7.3
25 Mike Wallace, Bal WR 7.2
26 Marquise Goodwin, SF WR Q 7.2
27 Demaryius Thomas, Den WR 7.2
28 ***Devin Funchess, Car WR Q 7.1
29 Cooper Kupp, LAR WR 6.6
30 Golden Tate, Det WR 6.5
31 Robert Woods, LAR WR 6.3
32 ***Jamison Crowder, Wsh WR Q 6.3
33 Mohamed Sanu, Atl WR Q 6.2
34 T.Y. Hilton, Ind WR 6.0
35 Sammy Watkins, LAR WR 5.9
36 Doug Baldwin, Sea WR 5.9
37 ***Amari Cooper, Oak WR Q 5.7
38 Paul Richardson, Sea WR 5.6
39 Kenny Stills, Mia WR 5.5
40 ***Chris Hogan, NE WR Q 5.4
RANK TE PROJECTION
1 Rob Gronkowski, NE TE 12.1
2 Travis Kelce, KC TE 10.0
3 Zach Ertz, Phi TE 9.8
4 Evan Engram, NYG TE 7.7
5 Jimmy Graham, Sea TE 7.4
6 Kyle Rudolph, Min TE 7.1
7 Delanie Walker, Ten TE 6.8
8 Cameron Brate, TB TE 6.4
9 Jesse James, Pit TE 6.3
10 Greg Olsen, Car TE 6.2
11 Jason Witten, Dal TE 5.6
12 Jack Doyle, Ind TE 5.4
13 Jared Cook, Oak TE 5.3
14 Vernon Davis, Wsh TE 4.8
15 Benjamin Watson, Bal TE 4.7
RANK K PROJECTION
1 Stephen Gostkowski, NE K 10.0
2 Chris Boswell, Pit K 10.0
3 Robbie Gould, SF K 10.0
4 Justin Tucker, Bal K 9.0
5 Harrison Butker, KC K 9.0
6 Matt Prater, Det K 9.0
7 Ryan Succop, Ten K 9.0
8 Wil Lutz, NO K 9.0
9 Matt Bryant, Atl K 9.0
10 Jake Elliott, Phi K 9.0
RANK DEF PROJECTION
1 Ravens D/ST D/ST 14
2 Rams D/ST D/ST 13
3 Jaguars D/ST D/ST 12
4 Vikings D/ST D/ST 10
5 Panthers D/ST D/ST 9
6 Lions D/ST D/ST 8
7 Bears D/ST D/ST 8
8 Eagles D/ST D/ST 7
9 Saints D/ST D/ST 7
10 Chargers D/ST D/ST 6

 

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