2017: How I Won TWICE As Many Championships Without Drafting Todd Gurley

Posted: January 7, 2018 in News, Opinion, Analysis
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Screen Shot 2018-01-04 at 11.19.23 AM

I didn’t know he was going to have an MVP year. Nobody did. So why did my teams win league championships at double the rate of the field?

Another banner year for me, your host, Steve Broadway.

How many championships did you win this year?  How many made the playoffs?  And how many leagues did you say you were in?


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2017, I was in 21 leagues.  For over a decade I have entered in 20 plus leagues per year.  Why so many?  Because I want to test my draft method: The Fantasy Football Draft Matrix® and my projections, which I have dubbed The Most Accurate Projections in the business®.

So yeah, 21 leagues.  17 of those teams finished in the top 4 of their league, thus making the playoffs.  In other words, 81% of my teams made the playoffs.  Think about it: in a ten team league where the to four make the playoffs, that would be the same as saying 40% of fantasy teams make the playoffs (4 out of 10).  So if only 40% of the teams can make it, but 81% of MY teams qualify, I’m clearly doing something really right.

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To be perfectly frank, I had my worst week of the season during week 15 (the opening round of the fantasy playoffs). “Only” 7 of my teams made it to the finals.  Of those 7, more than half won the league championship (4 teams).  How does that compare to the field?  Well, if only 4 teams can make the playoffs, then only 2 can make the finals, and obviously, only 1 can win the league championship.  Therefore, 20% of teams make it to the finals, and only 1 out of 10 (10%) can win the first place trophy.  My rate of success is significantly higher: 33% of my teams went to the finals, and 19% won first place.

Maybe you’re more of a visual person.

Made the Playoffs Made the Finals Won the Finals
My Teams 81% 33% 19%
The Field 40% 20% 10%

or…

chart

How many times did you draft Todd Gurley?

Zero.

How many times did you draft Ezekiel Elliott?

Twice.  Remember the debate about whether or not to draft Elliott due to his looming suspension that was overturned and re-overturned throughout the season.  I was strongly of the opinion that he should be taken in the second or early third round.  The ideal scenario was for those fantasy owners that had the first pick overall.  Such owners could then afford to take Elliot with the last pick of the second round, knowing they’d have the very next pick at the start of the third.

How many times did you draft David Johnson first overall, and how did those teams do?

I drafted David Johnson 1st overall three times.  All three of those teams made the playoffs; one of them finished first in the regular season.

Think about it.  Taking David Johnson first overall (which was the right move) was exactly the same as not having a first-round pick.  So why were my teams so successful?  I drafted so that my teams would be able to withstand such a setback.  I’ve always said that it’s the middle rounds that determine whether or not your team will make the playoffs.  Making the playoffs with every team on which I drafted Johnson or Elliott proves this point.  To learn how I draft, check out the video for the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix.

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