I haven’t really reported my results so far on this blog because I wanted to build up a decent body of work before I started bragging. After all, anyone can have a great week one and proclaim that they’ve cracked the code of fantasy football; that they know how to draft and who to start. Continue reading
Remember the way your dad’s garage smelled?
Slow down. Take a moment. Close your eyes for ten seconds. Breathe. Remember?
To me, that’s the smell of fantasy football. That’s where I hosted fantasy football drafts for about a decade from the mid- 1980’s through the 1990’s. Continue reading
For the uninitiated… This year I participated in 24 fantasy football leagues across Yahoo.com, NFL.com, and ESPN.com. The purpose of this experience was to test the success rate of my Fantasy Football Draft Matrix, which I used to draft my teams, and to test the accuracy of the projections I produce found on this blog that I use to pick my starting lineups each week. I participated in 10-team leagues in which the top 4 teams make the playoffs. In a world where 40% of the teams playing fantasy football make the playoffs, 75% of my teams (18 of 24) qualified.
Click on over to http://www.percentagecalculator.net… You’ll see that when a 40% success rate improves to 75%, that it’s actually an 87.5% increase.
No other fantasy expert nor product guarantees that kind of success. And I do guarantee that kind of success. Go to fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com for more info. I’ll get you into the playoffs next year or DOUBLE your money back.
And now… cue Thus Spoke Zarathustra…
. Let me show you via screen shots how my 18 playoff teams fared this week. NOTE: all of my teams are named some variation of Fantasy Football Draft Matrix.
See.. it’s say’s Yahoo. It says week 15. It says I scored 118.62. You can even see the URL. Clearly, judging by the look of this very blog you are reading, I’m no graphic designer so I probably didn’t manufacture this picture.
So far… I’m 1-0 in the playoffs!
Always tough to lose in the first round as a #1 seed. This was perhaps by best team, featuring Drew Brees, Calvin Johnson, Knowshon Moreno, and both Carolina and Kansas City’s Defense. 2-1 so far.
2-2. I’m seeing the results for the first time myself, so I’m sweating like Meatloaf. The singer.
3-2. Notice how I’m almost always favored?
Always nice to beat a 2 seed as a 3 seed. 4-2.
So yeah, I made the playoffs in 6 out of 8 Yahoo leagues and went 4-2. I’ll take that. I’m just cheesed off that one of my best teams got eliminated. That 1 seed was averaging 105 ppg!
On to NFL.com, where I made the playoffs in 4 out of 6 leagues.
Ok, it happens. Sometimes you go against Jamaal Charles when he scores 51.5 points. Sadly, I still would have lost even if my opponent didn’t have him. My opponent also had Nick Foles (33.22), Julian Edelman (19.9), That’s 100 points right there with three guys! So, this makes me 4-3 in the first round of the playoffs.
Nice. Very nice. Foles, Bell, Stacy, Allen, Jeffery, Hauschka, Kansas City to the rescue. 5-3.
This is a romp considering I was a 3 seed taking on a 2 seed. I’m 6-3 in the playoffs so far.
This one was so close, I had to show the entire box score. 4 out of 6 teams made the playoffs in NFL.com leagues. 3 of them won. God, I live for this. 7-3, babeeee! Plus it’s nice to beat a person who uses profanity in their team name. On to ESPN.com…
Don’t be thrown off by the score. ESPN does things a little differently. They have playoffs rounds that last 2 weeks. 8-3!
Did I really score 290 points over two weeks??? CHARLES, GORDON, ALLEN, GRAHAM, BELL, CHIEFS, TUCKER! 9-3 in the playoffs so far.
It’s just an embarrassment of riches at this point. Join me. Knocking off a 1 seed as a 4 seed is always nice, but when your opponent has a team name in ALL CAPS that makes them sound… “not nice”… I wink at myself in the mirror and go *ding*! 10-3!!!!!!
Brees, Marshall, Gordon, Lacy, Seahawks. Nice little starting unit there. 11-3!!!!
It happens. 11-4.
When your TE (C.Clay) scores ZERO… you lose. 11-5. 😦
A 1-point victory to get me into the finals!!! And just like that… sweet redemption. I went 12-6 in the playoffs.. 67% of my playoff teams are advancing to the finals. Actually, half of ALL of my teams are advancing to the finals. Remember, I was in 24 leagues.
No wait. Say it again. I’m was in 24 leagues this year. 12 of my teams made the finals. Half of my teams are playing for the Shiva.
Fantasy football is all about the answers to two simple questions. Who do I draft? Who do I start? I have the answers.
The regular season is over across all platforms. Again, I’m in 24 fantasy football leagues. I use the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix to create my teams, as well as my own projections (found on this site) to set my lineups every week. Week 14 wasn’t overly spectacular, as my teams won 56% of the time. But now that the regular season is in the books let’s take a look at the larger trends that have emerged from the unbelievable successful season I’ve had… the type of success I’d like help you obtain.
- In Week 14, my teams averaged over 102 points per game. Teams that score 100+ points win 89% of the time.
- 6 of my 24 teams finished in first place in their league; 25%
- 7 of my 24 teams finished in the top two; 29%
- 14 of my 24 teams finished in the top three; 58%
- 18 of my 24 teams finished in the top four (playoff-bound); 75%
- 23 of my 24 teams finished in the top six; 96%
- 4 of my 6 teams that did NOT qualify for the playoffs, missed the post-season by one win or tie-breaker.
- 8 of my 24 teams led their leagues in scoring; 33%
- 11 of my 24 teams finished in the top two in scoring; 46%
- 17 of my 24 teams finished in the top three in scoring; 71%
Interesting that 8 of my teams led the league in scoring, but only 6 of my teams finished in first place in terms of wins/losses. See? I have bad luck, but STILL succeed at a high rate. Across my study of over 50 leagues during the past two season, I found that teams that score 100-plus points in a given week win their game at a rate of 89%. When I score 100 points or more, I only win at a rate of 77%. So, if the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix can work for unlucky me, it can work for anyone.
Now for my favorite part. This is where I look at the improvement my methods offer. I compete in 10 team leagues in which the top four teams (by win/loss %) make the playoffs. This means, only 1 out of 10 teams can be ranked in first place in their league. That is to say, 10% of all all fantasy football teams will finish first. Furthermore, 4 out of 10 teams make the playoffs, or, 40%
My teams finish in first place at a rate of 25%. My teams make the playoffs at a rate of 75%
Feel free to click here (and use the “What is the percentage increase/decrease” function) to verify these numbers, but here’s my rate of improvement in these two categories:
- Increasing 10% to 25% is a 150% increase.
- Increasing 40% to 75% is a 87.5% increase.
That means teams using the FFDM and the projections found on this site make the playoffs 87.5% more often, and are the top seed in the playoffs 150% more often.
Not bad for a guy who drafted Arian Foster 10 times (out for the year since week 9), Julio Jones 7 times (out for the year since week 5), and Rob Gronkowski (missed the first six games and out for the year after last week). Again, these are all top draft picks. I took Foster TEN times in the first round. I picked Julio 7 times in the second or third round. The Gronker fell to me in the fifth round 10 times. I drafted ALL THREE of these guys on 3 of my 24 teams. Two of them made the playoffs. I drafted at TWO of these three guys on 5 of my teams…and 4 of those teams made the playoffs.
This illustrates perhaps the greatest strength of utilizing the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix to build your team. Basically, your team becomes first round draft bust proof. Arian Foster did not play an entire season, and by the time his season was over, he had produced the 19th most points among RB’s. In other words, the player I drafted most frequently in the first round among my 24 teams did not adversely affect my seasons by his disappointing production and season-ending injury. 75% of my teams still made the playoffs.
For more information, visit fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com. The new down-loadable e-book will be available in the summer, and will once again offer a “make the playoffs or double your money-back” guarantee.
First draft of this week’s projections will be up before tonight’s game.
It was a good week. It was a great week.
I’m in 24 fantasy football leagues, and in all of those league I used the fantasy football draft matrix (fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com) to build my teams, and the projections found on this site to set my lineups. In week 13, my 24 teams had a combined record of 20-4. That’s alotta percent. More precisely, it’s 83%. My projections, as compared to the numbers posted by Yahoo.com, NFL.com, and ESPN.com were the most accurate across all fantasy positions. Behold:
I’m still disappointed in the accuracy of my QB projections, as I haven’t once had the most accurate predictions at that position yet this season. So that’s the one chink in the armor I suppose.
Big picture, my projections have been the most accurate in 7 of the first 13 weeks. Furthermore, my projections have been the most or second most accurate EVERY WEEK in the 2013 season. There’s gotta be a better way of saying that. Every week this football season, my fantasy football projections have either been the most accurate or second most accurate when compared to Yahoo.com, NFL.com, and ESPN.com. When you know who to start, you win games and go to the playoffs, and at this rate, 83% of my teams will qualify for the playoffs. An eye-popping 96% are in fifth place or better.
Now I’m going to bore you with evidential proof of the success I’ve enjoyed this week, as well as all season. After all, I could just be saying all this because I have nothing better to do.
Here are some screen shots from my yahoo leagues, where I routinely put up 90-100+ points per game last week!
I went 5-1 in NFL.com leagues…
Here’s how my teams are doing in ESPN Leagues. 8 out of 10 teams would qualify for the playoffs, and the other 2 are only one game out of contention (look to the right part of the screen)
It’s just awesome for the sake of awesome. The Fantasy Football Draft Matrix work. In a world where most fantasy football teams DONT’ make the playoffs, MOST of my teams do. It’s all here for the taking. Use the free scoring projections on this blog, and use the methods explained on fantasyfootballdraftmtatirx.com. You will win. You will go to the playoffs. Double your money back guarantee. Ding!
Yet another week of sheer and utter domination. Here is how my projections fared:
In other words, my projections were the most accurate at the WR, TE, K, and DEF positions, and the second most accurate at QB and RB. When you have access to the best or second-best weekly projections to set your starting lineup, you win.
As far as actual team performances, teams using the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix to draft their team, and the projections found on this blog to select their starting lineups, won 67% of their games last week. Think that’s good enough to get into the playoffs where anything can happen? Oh yeah. 71% of these teams would qualify for the playoffs if the season ended today. I would argue that an even more impressive statistic is the fact that 92% of teams using our methods are in fifth place or better. 92% of teams using fantasfyfootbballdraftmatrix.com would either qualify for the playoff or be one game on the bubble. Extraordinary!
More like… Weak 11. The 24 teams I’m testing using my patented fantastyfootballdraftmatrix.com were below .500 for the second time all year. It happens. Maybe losing Arian Foster on 10 of my teams, and losing Julio Jones on 7 of my teams is just too much to overcome. Then again, maybe it’s not. Actually, I know it’s not.
As it stand right now, 21% teams that used the fantasyfantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com and the weekly projections found on this site are in first place in their respective leagues. In a ten team league, each team has a 1:10 change of being in first… that’s 10%. Basically, fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com teams are twice as likely to be in first at this point in the season. 75% would make the playoffs, as compared the the field’s 40% success rate.
I think that’s pretty good.
Ok, so my teams went 11-13 in week 11. It happens. But why should you care about how my teams did, when you could focus your attention on how the projections found on this site could have helped YOUR team? Let’s looks at how my projections ranked against the major fantasy football websites:
Just to clarify, a “1” is most accurate, and a “4” is least accurate. So, my projections were the most accurate overall, as ranked by position. I was the most accurate with regards to projections RB’s, WR’s, K’s, and DEF.
I don’t do a lot of editorializing on this site. You can watch ESPN and NFL Network for that. I’m more of a bottom line kinda guy. Who should I draft? Who should I start? That’s what I give you. See fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com for more information.