Archive for the ‘Results’ Category

The regular season is over across all platforms.  Again, I’m in 24 fantasy football leagues.  I use the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix to create my teams, as well as my own projections (found on this site) to set my lineups every week.  Week 14 wasn’t overly spectacular, as my teams won 56% of the time.  But now that the regular season is in the books let’s take a look at the larger trends that have emerged from the unbelievable successful season I’ve had… the type of success I’d like help you obtain.

  • In Week 14, my teams averaged over 102 points per game.  Teams that score 100+ points win 89% of the time.
  • 6 of my 24 teams finished in first place in their league; 25%
  • 7 of my 24 teams finished in the top two; 29%
  • 14 of my 24 teams finished in the top three; 58%
  • 18 of my 24 teams finished in the top four (playoff-bound); 75%
  • 23 of my 24 teams finished in the top six; 96%
  • 4 of my 6 teams that did NOT qualify for the playoffs, missed the post-season by one win or tie-breaker.
  •  8 of my 24 teams led their leagues in scoring; 33%
  • 11 of my 24 teams finished in the top two in scoring; 46%
  • 17 of my 24 teams finished in the top three in scoring; 71%

Interesting that 8 of my teams led the league in scoring, but only 6 of my teams finished in first place in terms of wins/losses.  See?  I have bad luck, but STILL succeed at a high rate.  Across my study of over 50 leagues during the past two season, I found that teams that score 100-plus points in a given week win their game at a rate of 89%.  When I score 100 points or more, I only win at a rate of 77%.  So, if the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix can work for unlucky me, it can work for anyone.

Now for my favorite part.  This is where I look at the improvement my methods offer.  I compete in 10 team leagues in which the top four teams (by win/loss %) make the playoffs.  This means, only 1 out of 10 teams can be ranked in first place in their league.  That is to say, 10% of all all fantasy football teams will finish first.  Furthermore, 4 out of 10 teams make the playoffs, or, 40%

My teams finish in first place at a rate of 25%.  My teams make the playoffs at a rate of 75%

Feel free to click here (and use the “What is the percentage increase/decrease” function) to verify these numbers, but here’s my rate of improvement in these two categories:

  • Increasing 10% to 25% is a 150% increase.
  • Increasing 40% to 75% is a 87.5% increase.

That means teams using the FFDM and the projections found on this site make the playoffs 87.5% more often, and are the top seed in the playoffs 150% more often.

Not bad for a guy who drafted Arian Foster 10 times (out for the year since week 9), Julio Jones 7 times (out for the year since week 5), and Rob Gronkowski (missed the first six games and out for the year after last week).  Again, these are all top draft picks.  I took Foster TEN times in the first round.  I picked Julio 7 times in the second or third round.  The Gronker fell to me  in the fifth round 10 times.  I drafted ALL THREE of these guys on 3 of my 24 teams.  Two of them made the playoffs.  I drafted at TWO of these three guys on 5 of my teams…and 4 of those teams made the playoffs.

This illustrates perhaps the greatest strength of utilizing the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix to build your team.  Basically, your team becomes first round draft bust proof.  Arian Foster did not play an entire season, and by the time his season was over, he had produced the 19th most points among RB’s.  In other words, the player I drafted most frequently in the first round among my 24 teams did not adversely affect my seasons by his disappointing production and season-ending injury.  75% of my teams still made the playoffs.

For more information, visit fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com.  The new down-loadable e-book will be available in the summer, and will once again offer a “make the playoffs or double your money-back” guarantee.

First draft of this week’s projections will be up before tonight’s game.

 

Week 13 Results

Posted: December 6, 2013 in Results
Tags:

It was a good week.  It was a great week.

I’m in 24 fantasy football leagues, and in all of those league I used the fantasy football draft matrix (fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com) to build my teams, and the projections found on this site to set my lineups.  In week 13, my 24 teams had a combined record of 20-4.  That’s alotta percent.  More precisely, it’s 83%.  My projections, as compared to the numbers posted by Yahoo.com, NFL.com, and ESPN.com were the most accurate across all fantasy positions.  Behold:

QB RB WR TE K DEF TOTAL
BROADWAY 3 2 2 1 2 3 13
YAHOO 2 1 1 2 3 4 13
ESPN 1 3 4 3 4 1 16
NFL 4 4 3 4 1 2 18

I’m still disappointed in the accuracy of my QB projections, as I haven’t once had the most accurate predictions at that position yet this season.  So that’s the one chink in the armor I suppose.

Big picture, my projections have been the most accurate in 7 of the first 13 weeks.  Furthermore, my projections have been the most or second most accurate EVERY WEEK in the 2013 season.  There’s gotta be a better way of saying that.  Every week this football season, my fantasy football projections have either been the most accurate or second most accurate when compared to Yahoo.com, NFL.com, and ESPN.com.  When you know who to start, you win games and go to the playoffs, and at this rate, 83% of my teams will qualify for the playoffs.  An eye-popping 96% are in fifth place or better.

Now I’m going to bore you with evidential proof of the success I’ve enjoyed this week, as well as all season.  After all, I could just be saying all this because I have nothing better to do.

Here are some screen shots from my yahoo leagues, where I routinely put up 90-100+ points per game last week!

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I went 5-1 in NFL.com leagues…

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Here’s how my teams are doing in ESPN Leagues.  8 out of 10 teams would qualify for the playoffs, and the other 2 are only one game out of contention (look to the right part of the screen)

Screen Shot 2013-12-06 at 11.43.55 AM

It’s just awesome for the sake of awesome.  The Fantasy Football Draft Matrix work.  In a world where most fantasy football teams DONT’ make the playoffs, MOST of my teams do.  It’s all here for the taking.  Use the free scoring projections on this blog, and use the methods explained on fantasyfootballdraftmtatirx.com.  You will win.  You will go to the playoffs.  Double your money back guarantee.  Ding!

Week 12 Results

Posted: December 1, 2013 in Results
Tags:

Yet another week of sheer and utter domination.  Here is how my projections fared:

  QB RB WR TE K DEF TOTAL
BROADWAY 2 2 1 1 1 1 8
YAHOO 1 1 2 2 2 2 10
NFL 4 4 3 3 3 3 20
ESPN 3 3 4 4 4 4 22

In other words, my projections were the most accurate at the WR, TE, K, and DEF positions, and the second most accurate at QB and RB.  When you have access to the best or second-best weekly projections to set your starting lineup, you win.

As far as actual team performances, teams using the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix to draft their team, and the projections found on this blog to select their starting lineups, won 67% of their games last week.  Think that’s good enough to get into the playoffs where anything can happen?  Oh yeah.  71% of these teams would qualify for the playoffs if the season ended today. I would argue that an even more impressive statistic is the fact that 92% of teams using our methods are in fifth place or better.  92% of teams using fantasfyfootbballdraftmatrix.com would either qualify for the playoff or be one game on the bubble.  Extraordinary!

More like… Weak 11.  The 24 teams I’m testing using my patented fantastyfootballdraftmatrix.com were below .500 for the second time all year.  It happens.  Maybe losing Arian Foster on 10 of my teams, and losing Julio Jones on 7 of my teams is just too much to overcome.  Then again, maybe it’s not.  Actually, I know it’s not.

As it stand right now, 21% teams that used the fantasyfantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com and the weekly projections found on this site are in first place in their respective leagues.  In a ten team league, each team has a 1:10 change of being in first… that’s 10%.  Basically, fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com teams are twice as likely to be in first at this point in the season.  75% would make the playoffs, as compared the the field’s 40% success rate.

I think that’s pretty good.

Ok, so my teams went 11-13 in week 11.  It happens.  But why should you care about how my teams did, when you could focus your attention on how the projections found on this site could have helped YOUR team?  Let’s looks at how my projections ranked against the major fantasy football websites:

QB RB WR TE K DEF TOTAL
BROADWAY 3 1 1 2 1 1 9
YAHOO 1 2 3 1 2 2 11
ESPN 2 3 2 3 3 3 16
NFL 4 4 4 4 3 4 23

Just to clarify, a “1” is most accurate, and a “4” is least accurate.  So, my projections were the most accurate overall, as ranked by position.  I was the most accurate with regards to projections RB’s, WR’s, K’s, and DEF.

I don’t do a lot of editorializing on this site.  You can watch ESPN and NFL Network for that.  I’m more of a bottom line kinda guy.  Who should I draft?  Who should I start?  That’s what I give you.  See fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com for more information.

19-5… again.  Ho hum.  Just another week of winning 79% of my games.  There is bad news, but I’ll save that for paragraph two.  My teams averaged 97.14 points per game, and if the season was to end today, 19 of my 24 teams would make the playoffs, which is also a 79% rate.  Keep in mind only 40% of fantasy football teams make the playoffs, so let the record show that if you use the fantasy football draft matrix to build your team, and use this blog to set your lineups, you pretty much double your chances of getting to the post-season!  For more information, visit http://www.fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com.

Now for the bad news.  I have Arian Foster on 10 of my teams.  While the fantasy football draft matrix had him ranked as the second overall back, at this point in time, he’s the 19th ranked running back in terms of fantasy points.  That is certainly a disappointing standing, but he’s still a double-digit per week producer and was actually a decent RB2 for me on many of my teams.    While, I won’t go all out and say Foster was a bust this year, it is worth noting that there is a chapter in the downloadable e-book at http://www.fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com on drafting strategies to help you survive a first round flop.

That said… it’s excuse-making time.  Arian Foster was drafted to 10 of my 24 teams.  Julio Jones was drafted to 7 of my 24 teams.  On 5 of my 24 teams I drafted Foster AND Jones.  What am I getting at?  Well, I’d like to take a snapshot of where I am at this point in time across all teams to see where I was before Foster went down, and compare that to where my teams actually end up.  This is the nature of fantasy football, friends.  Sometimes, you score 120 points and lose.  Sometimes, you score 70 points and win.  Sometimes, your first two draft picks go down with season-ending injuries.  Maybe my next book should be about how to work the waiver wire.

Bullet points.  ASAP!

  • Of the 10 teams on which I drafted Arian Foster, they are currently ranked in their individual league as follows: 8th, 3rd, 1st, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 5th, 4th, 1st, and 5th.  On average, these teams are in 3rd place which would qualify them for the playoffs. 
  • As previously mentioned, 19 of my 24 teams would currently qualify for the playoffs.  I expect this number to drop since the loss of Julio Jones on 7 of my teams, and the loss of Arian Foster on 10 of my teams.  Devastating.
  • My 24 teams are averaging over 98 points-per-game, which again, I expect to crater considering I’m losing a legit double-digit producer in Foster.

Look, I’m going to do all I can on the waiver wire to try to maintain my current rate of success.  But you can’t churn butter with a toothpick.  Call me crazy, but I don’t think that picking up Bobby Rainey will salvage my civil war-like injury-laden rosters.

Going into the Sunday night game, I was projected to go 23-1 in week nine!  Man, I wish that held up, but things broke bad, and I ended up going 19-5.  My teams all used the fantasy football draft matrix (www.fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com) and the projections found on this blog to produce teams that averaged– AVERAGED– 108.5 points per game in week 9.  Typically ,when score 100 or more you win 89% of the time.  Sixty-seven percent of these teams would qualify for the playoffs if the season ended after week nine.  

I did face one opponent that put up 194.08 points.  Yeah, I lost that one.

Ok, so I know that weeks 9 and 10 are in the books, but I wanted to check in to report on my success at the official halfway point of the season through week 8.  As usual, I’ll be analyzing my success on two fronts: how my teams are performing (win/loss, ppg, etc.), and the accuracy of my weekly projections.

So, how are my teams doing?  First, let me say that I have 24 fantasy football teams across Yahoo.com, NFL.com, and ESPN.com.  I would have had more teams to test the fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com if not for my wife forcing to go on vacation for a week at the end of August.  And by “vacation”, I mean a week with HER family.  Not the best use of my time.

But my teams are doing extremely well.  I was in 28 leagues last year, and I’m getting virtually identical results.  Cue the bullet-points:

  • As of week 8, 17 of 24 teams would qualify for the playoffs if the regular season was to end at week 8.  That’s 71% of teams that used the fantasyfootballdraftmatrix to draft and teams using the projections at https://fantasyfootballplayoffsguaranteed.wordpress.com to set their lineups.  Keep in mind, only 40% of teams make the playoffs.  So, when 40% improves to 71%, that’s a 78% increase!  Again, if you use our draft method, and set your lineups based on our projections, you will improve your chances of making the playoffs by 78% (as of week 8)

  • 22 out of 24 teams are .500 or better.  Good lord, that’s 92%.  Think about it…92% of the teams using our process are winning at least half their games and are in the playoff hunt.  Teams that use the fantasyfootballdraftmatrix and use the projections at https://fantasyfootballplayoffsguaranteed.wordpress.com are .500 or better 92% of the time.

  • Sadly, 2 of 24 teams using our process have a losing record.  Thats 8%.  Single-digit number eight.

  • There are no teams in last place in their league.

  • There are no teams in second-to-last place in their league.

  • 6 of 24 teams (25%) are in first place for their league.  That’s a 150% increase over the 1-in-10 odds!

  • 9 of 24 teams (38%) are in the first or second place in their league.  That’s a 90% increase!

  • 14 of 24 teams (58%) are in third place or better in their league.  That’s a 93% increase!

  • 17 of 24 teams (71%) are in forth place or better.  But you already knew that.

  • 19 of 24 teams (79%) are in fifth place or better.

  • 88% of the teams average 90 points per game or better.  The winning percentage of teams that score 90-99 ppg is 59%, which will qualify you for the playoffs more often than not.

In the words of Darth Vader, “Impressive… most impressive.”

Ok, and then there is the analysis of our weekly projections here at Broadway Fantasy Football…

When it comes to projecting the accuracy on a week-to-week basis of ONLY quarterbacks in the NFL… YAHOO ABSOLUTELY SCHOOLS ME.  This year, and this year only, they have been more accurate each and every week  at projecting the points that the top 25 QB’s would score.  Gotta admit it.  Kudos, baby.  

Okay, so one platform smokes me every week at ONE OF SIX fantasy football positions. Let’s look at how I do against Yahoo at the other five positions.  Again,Yahoo beats me 8 weeks to zip at the QB position (because they were more accurate than me during each of the first 8 weeks of the season).  Looking at the other five positions (RB, WR, TE, K, and DEF), my combined weekly projections were more accurate by a margin of 22-18.  That’s a little closer than I would like, but still superior.  So, if you’re in a yahoo league, by all means, determine your starting QB based on Yahoo’s projections.  Then click over to https://fantasyfootballplayoffsguaranteed.wordpress.com for every other posish (and yes, I had to look up the Tenacious D lyrics to figure out how to spell posish).

This brings me to good ol’ NFL.com.  Me and my projections vs the actual league.  A little simple math… 6 fantasy positions per week times 8 weeks… that’s 48.  Every week, I make my projections before the games are played.  And every week, NFL.com makes their projections before the games are played.  I take the average difference from my projection for each player from their actual output.  I take the average difference from NFL.com’s projection for each player from their actual output.  For example, let’s say I project Adrian Peterson will score 15 points, but he actually scores 20.  The difference is five (the absolute value of 15 minus 20).  But let’s say, NFL.com projects Adrian Peterson will score 30 points, but as previously mentioned in this hypothetical example, he only scored 20.  The difference for NFL.com is 10 (30 minus 20).  I was off by 5, NFL was off by 10.  I was more accurate in this example.  I continue this comparison of projections vs performance across 150 total players

  • 25 QB’s
  • 40 RB’s
  • 40 WR’s
  • 15 TE’s
  • 15 K’s
  • 15 DEF’s 

Wait, wasn’t I supposed to tell you how I fared against the league?  Again, 6 positions per week over 8 weeks gives me 48 opportunities to out-project my competition.  Midway through the season, I’ve out-projected NFL by a score of 45-3.  Cue the bullet-points:

  • More accurate QB, K, and DEF projections in 7 of 8 weeks.

  • More accurate RB, WR, and TE projections in 8 of 8 weeks.

  • I swept NFL.com by out projecting them at every position during weeks 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, and 8.

Ouch.  This is what happens to you, NFL.com, when you project Marques Colston will score 22.2 points in week six.  Dude was averaging 7.46 points per game.  In week six, he scored a personal season-low 1.1 points.

ESPN.com does a little better than NFL.  Im sure by now you know the criteria: I compare the accuracy my projections at each position each week against Yahoo, NFL, and ESPN.  Six positions through eight weeks… 48 comparisons.  Scoreboard reads Steve Broadway 40, ESPN 8.  

Big picture now: there are 6 fantasy football positions, over 8 weeks, compared against 3 competitors.  6x8x3=144.  My projections have been more accurate in 107 of those 144 comparisons.  That’s a 74% success rate.

There’s also a second method I’ve used to determine the most accurate fantasy football projection service.  As opposed to one-to-one position comparisons, this evaluation tool ranks the sites from most-to-least accurate at each position each week.  Does that make sense?  In other words, the first method would compare this site versus Yahoo at the QB position, for example, and the smaller margin of error essentially gets one point.  This second technique compares all four sites at the same time and ranks them in terms of accuracy.  So here’s how it looked after week one:

 

QB

RB

WR

TE

K

DEF

SB

2

2

1

2

1

1

YAHOO

1

1

2

1

2

3

NFL

4

4

4

4

4

4

ESPN

3

3

3

3

3

2

So, in week one, Yahoo had the most accurate QB projections, I had the second most accurate, ESPN came in third, and NFL forth.  As you can see these rankings are carried out across each position.  Then we add the rankings and/or take the average.  In this instance, my score was 9 (2+2+1+2+1+1).  Yahoo’s score was 10, NFL posted 24, and ESPN produced 17.  Like golf, the low score wins.  After carrying out this same process through week 8, here are the standings based on average ranking:

TOTAL

AVERAGE

Broadway

1.6875

Yahoo

1.83333333333333

ESPN

3.02083333333333

NFL

3.45833333333333

 

As for you, Yahoo, and your QB’s projections… I’ve identified the issue.  I compare my projections against NFL.com actual scoring, which is difference than the way Yahoo scores their QB stats.  NFL subtracts 2 points for INTs, Yahoo only subtracts 1.  I will continue to compare my projections against NFL.com’s actual point totals, but I’ll be sure to factor in this revelation.  

 

“I’m not conceited.  Conceit is a fault and I have no faults.”

-David Lee Roth

Teams using the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix (fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com) won 67% of their games in week six.  58% scored 100 points or more, and the average output was 102 points.  Remember the winning percentage for teams that score 100 points in a given week is 85%!

Now, when I say my projections were more accurate than this site or that site at this position or that position, I may not be clear on what that means exactly.  So, just to be clear, let me explain what I mean by “more accurate.”  Each week, I project the highest scoring players at each recognized fantasy football position according to the following break down:

  • 25 QB’S
  • 40 RB’S
  • 40 WR’S
  • 15 TE’S
  • 15 K’S
  • 15 DEF

Because, honestly… do you really need to know anything beyond that?  Do you really need to know what the 23rd ranked kicker is likely to score in a given week?  So I figure this breakdown is fair and thorough, and will give fantasy football players a realistic insight regarding the players they should start or sit.  If you don’t have a QB that’s among the top 25 in the league, you might want to take a dip in the free agency pool.  Philip Rivers is still out there.

My projections were off the charts this week.  But before I get into the statistic breakdown of my dominance over the forecasting competition, here’s a couple of head-scratching observations about the other guys.

NFL.com should really go by WTF.com, because I don’t know how you justify projecting Gronkowski would score 13.6 (when he was inactive), Glennon would score ZERO (as a starting QB, he scored 19.92 points, finishing 8th amongst all QB’s), and Brandon Marshall projected as the 58th best WR prospect in week 6.  Marshall– green shoes and all– scored over 20 points and was the second highest scoring receiver.

Going back to Glennon for a second, he actually out-scored Rodgers, Brees, and Manning.  No one saw that coming, but I knew that he’d score at least ONE point.  

Yahoo had Pierre Garcon projected as the 3rd highest scoring WR.  He finished 35th.

ESPN placed Torrey Smith as the second highest projected receiver, but Josh Gordon at 50th!  Over the last four weeks, Gordon has averaged the 5th most points amongst all WR’s.  

So again, I publish my projections here on this site every Thursday (in time for the Thursday night game) and update the projections frequently before the Sunday afternoon kickoff.  I take the difference between my projections and the players actual output and compare the average difference versus NFL.com, Yahoo.com, and ESPN.com.  The smaller the discrepancy, the more accurate the projections.  

Here’s how my week 6 projections fared:

  • More accurate than Yahoo at RB, WR, TE, and DEF.
  • More accurate than NFL at QB, RB, WR, TE, and DEF.
  • More accurate than ESPN at QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and DEF.

For more information, visit http://www.fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com

 

I had a very good week five, as my combined win-loss record was 18-5-1.  It’s time for ESPN to start using fractional points, because ties are just the absolute worst.  Keep in mind, my twenty-four teams are allotted in across NFL.com, Yahoo.com, and the aforementioned ESPN.com.  18-5-1.  That’s 77%.  That kind of winning percentage will get you into the playoffs.  Do I pull off that success rate every week?  No.  But I do okay.  I do okay.  

Overall, my teams are 76-42-2.  When I saw “42” losses, my initial reaction was sheer and utter panic.  Did my Fantasy Football Draft Matrix (ffdraftmatrix.com) fail?  Deep breath.  Do the match.  Okay, my winning percentage is 67%.  Even more impressive is the rate at which my teams would qualify for the playoffs if the season was to end today…64%.  Only 40% of all teams make the playoffs.  When a 40% success rate improves to 64%, that’s a 60% increase!

That said, just as I’m about to spike the football, I’m afraid my reign of pretty-friggin-good is in serious jeopardy.  You see, I have Julio Jones on seven of my teams.  When a second round player goes down for the season, it might be too much for any fantasy team to endure.  Who am I going to find in free agency or waivers that can replace his production?  Vincent Brown?  Luckily, I’m loaded at TE across most of my teams as I routinely drafted Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron, and Jimmy Graham, so it’s kinda like having an extra player when you have an elite TE.  Plus, ESPN allows TE’s at the flex position, so I’ll have teams that are starting two of the three previously mentioned TE’s (Cameron, Graham, Thomas).  I guess what I’m really trying to say is… I’m not the type to make excuses for poor fantasy performance, but IIIIII”m gonna make an excuse for poor fantasy performance going forward just in case.  Here’s a quick snap shot of where I am overall: 67% percent winning percentage, with 64% of my teams making the playoffs.  By the way, that’s the exact same percentage of my teams that made the playoffs last year across 28 leagues.

Again, the reason for this impressive rate of success is two-fold.  First I employ my patented fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com method of drafting.  Second, I produce my own weekly players projections which are proven the most accurate in the business. So not only am I drafting the players that will give me the best chance of winning, I’m also starting the right guys at the right time.  Here’s the results for my week five projections (which, I’ll admit doesn’t reflect my typical accuracy as compared to most weeks, but I still won the week vs my peers).

  • My QB projections were more accurate than NFL.com
  • My RB projections were more accurate than NFL.com and ESPN.com
  • My WR projections were more accurate than NFL.com and ESPN.com
  • MY TE projections were more accurate than NFL.com
  • My K projections were more accurate than Yahoo.com, NFL.com and ESPN.com
  • My DEF projections were more accurate than Yahoo.com and NFL.com

Typically, my projections are more accurate than all three sites in at least four of the six fantasy positions, but Yahoo has been really good lately.  I’ll come up with a bunch of stats later to support that.  Just make sure you check my projections on this blog on Sunday morning before you set your lineup.

 

Man, am I good at this.

Now that we are a quarter of the way through the season, I’d like to take a snap shot on the success I’ve had this fantasy football season.  There’s two distinct ways in which I’d like to measure my success.  First is the most obvious: how well my fantasy football teams are performing.  Second, is my nonpareil ability to project weekly fantasy scoring.  Nonpareil, without peer, having no match, unrivaled.

I’m participating in twenty-four fantasy football league.  I would have been in more leagues, but my wife booked us on a week-long vacation during the all-important third week of the NFL pre-season.  So that’s my excuse for why I was in twenty-eight leagues last year, but “only” twenty-four this year.  Next year, I’ll try for fifty or one hundred, but I’m sure my wife will drag me somewhere again, which will encumber my ability to draft as many teams as possible.

Wait, what?  I was in twenty-eight leagues last year?  Yeah.

Yeah.

I’m that kind of geek.  How did I do last year?

2012 Fantasy Football Draft Matrix Teams Finished:

• First in Scoring 29% of the Time Compared to the 10% Average

• In the Top 2 in Scoring 46% of the Time Compared to the 20% Average
• In the Top 3 in Scoring 57% of the Time Compared to the 30% Average
• In the Top 4 in Scoring 71% of the Time Compared to the 40% Average

2012 Fantasy Football Draft Matrix Teams Improved the times:
• They Led the League in Scoring by 190%
• They Finished in the Top 2 in Scoring by 130%
• They Finished in the Top 3 in Scoring by 90%
• They Finished in the Top 4 in Scoring by 77.5%

Overall 2012 Fantasy Football Draft Matrix Results:

• 7 Points Per Game BETTER THAN THE FIELD!

So yeah, I did pretty well last year.  Check out http://www.fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com for more information.

But how are things going this year?  Well, again, let’s look at this from two perspectives: How my teams are doing, and how accurate are my weekly projections.

Let’s start with the success of my twenty-four fantasy football teams this year (2013).

  • 12 of my 24 teams are averaging 100 points per game (PPG) or more.  Teams that score 100 points or more in a given week win their game 85% of the time.  Of course, I have bad luck, so when I score 100 points or more, my winning percentage is “only” 83%.  Only.

  • If the season ended today, 15 of my 24 teams would qualify for the playoffs.  That’s 63%.  Only 40% of fantasy football teams qualify for the playoffs.  When a success rate improves from 40% to 63%, that’s a 58% improvement.  You can do the math for yourself at percentagecalculator.net.

  • 20 of my 24 teams have a .500 winning percentage or better.

  • 3 wins and 1 loss is the record that my teams possess more often than any other win-loss record.

  • I have no last place teams.  None.

  • My teams did post a combined losing record in week one.  However, my win/loss percentage is 69% in weeks two through four.

So that’s that.  I’m winning a lot of fantasy football games, bottom line.  Why am I winning?  It all comes down to two simple questions:  Who should you draft, and who should you start?  First, I use the http://www.fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com to build my teams in the draft.  Then, I use my own player projections to determine my starters.  My weekly projections are the most accurate in the industry.  More accurate than Yahoo.com.  More accurate than NFL.com.  More accurate than ESPN.com.  And I have the numbers to prove it.

What do I mean by “more accurate?”  For starters, I don’t just rank the players each week; I actually project how many points I think they will score.  I compare that number to their actual fantasy output.  Long story short, my projections are off  by a smaller margin than my competitors on average.  More specifically:

  • In week one, my projections at every position were more accurate than NFL.com and ESPN.com.  My projections at WR, TE, K, and DEF were more accurate than Yahoo.com

  • In week two, I again owned NFL.com, by out-projecting them at every fantasy position.  My projections were more accurate than ESPN’s at the QB, RB, K, and DEF positions.  Yahoo had my number in week two, gotta admit.  My projections were more accurate than Yahoo’s at RB and K only.  It’s the only time all season that a competitor was more accurate at more positions.

  • In week three, I tied with Yahoo by having more accurate projections at RB, TE, and DEF (while they were better at QB, QE, and K).  I was more accurate than NFL at RB, WR, TE, and K.  My projections compared very favorably versus ESPN, as I was more accurate at every position except QB.

  • Week four was my best effort yet.  My projections were superior at every position against all platforms with only two exceptions.  Yahoo and ESPN both had more accurate QB numbers, but that was it.

To what do I attribute my success and accuracy?  For starters, I watch every snap of every pre-season game.  Then, as a retired financial planner, I use statistic and probability to help assess each players potential output.

So, as we enter then second quarter of the season, it may be too late to salvage your draft, but you can still put yourself in the best position to win by accessing the best projections found on this site to determine your starting lineup.

For more information visit: http://www.fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com