“Chewie… we’re home.” – Han Solo
It’s officially not too early to start talking fantasy football. Here is my first draft of fantasy football projections for 2015, for you fools who are drafting before preseason begins. Continue reading
“Chewie… we’re home.” – Han Solo
It’s officially not too early to start talking fantasy football. Here is my first draft of fantasy football projections for 2015, for you fools who are drafting before preseason begins. Continue reading
Updated 10/5/14 at 3:35pm EST.
Here are the most accurate projections in fantasy football. 67% of my position rankings are either the most accurate or second most accurate as compared to Yahoo.com, NFL.com, or ESPN.com
Going into the Sunday night game, I was projected to go 23-1 in week nine! Man, I wish that held up, but things broke bad, and I ended up going 19-5. My teams all used the fantasy football draft matrix (www.fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com) and the projections found on this blog to produce teams that averaged– AVERAGED– 108.5 points per game in week 9. Typically ,when score 100 or more you win 89% of the time. Sixty-seven percent of these teams would qualify for the playoffs if the season ended after week nine.
I did face one opponent that put up 194.08 points. Yeah, I lost that one.
Ok, so I know that weeks 9 and 10 are in the books, but I wanted to check in to report on my success at the official halfway point of the season through week 8. As usual, I’ll be analyzing my success on two fronts: how my teams are performing (win/loss, ppg, etc.), and the accuracy of my weekly projections.
So, how are my teams doing? First, let me say that I have 24 fantasy football teams across Yahoo.com, NFL.com, and ESPN.com. I would have had more teams to test the fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com if not for my wife forcing to go on vacation for a week at the end of August. And by “vacation”, I mean a week with HER family. Not the best use of my time.
But my teams are doing extremely well. I was in 28 leagues last year, and I’m getting virtually identical results. Cue the bullet-points:
As of week 8, 17 of 24 teams would qualify for the playoffs if the regular season was to end at week 8. That’s 71% of teams that used the fantasyfootballdraftmatrix to draft and teams using the projections at https://fantasyfootballplayoffsguaranteed.wordpress.com to set their lineups. Keep in mind, only 40% of teams make the playoffs. So, when 40% improves to 71%, that’s a 78% increase! Again, if you use our draft method, and set your lineups based on our projections, you will improve your chances of making the playoffs by 78% (as of week 8)
22 out of 24 teams are .500 or better. Good lord, that’s 92%. Think about it…92% of the teams using our process are winning at least half their games and are in the playoff hunt. Teams that use the fantasyfootballdraftmatrix and use the projections at https://fantasyfootballplayoffsguaranteed.wordpress.com are .500 or better 92% of the time.
Sadly, 2 of 24 teams using our process have a losing record. Thats 8%. Single-digit number eight.
There are no teams in last place in their league.
There are no teams in second-to-last place in their league.
6 of 24 teams (25%) are in first place for their league. That’s a 150% increase over the 1-in-10 odds!
9 of 24 teams (38%) are in the first or second place in their league. That’s a 90% increase!
14 of 24 teams (58%) are in third place or better in their league. That’s a 93% increase!
17 of 24 teams (71%) are in forth place or better. But you already knew that.
19 of 24 teams (79%) are in fifth place or better.
88% of the teams average 90 points per game or better. The winning percentage of teams that score 90-99 ppg is 59%, which will qualify you for the playoffs more often than not.
In the words of Darth Vader, “Impressive… most impressive.”
Ok, and then there is the analysis of our weekly projections here at Broadway Fantasy Football…
When it comes to projecting the accuracy on a week-to-week basis of ONLY quarterbacks in the NFL… YAHOO ABSOLUTELY SCHOOLS ME. This year, and this year only, they have been more accurate each and every week at projecting the points that the top 25 QB’s would score. Gotta admit it. Kudos, baby.
Okay, so one platform smokes me every week at ONE OF SIX fantasy football positions. Let’s look at how I do against Yahoo at the other five positions. Again,Yahoo beats me 8 weeks to zip at the QB position (because they were more accurate than me during each of the first 8 weeks of the season). Looking at the other five positions (RB, WR, TE, K, and DEF), my combined weekly projections were more accurate by a margin of 22-18. That’s a little closer than I would like, but still superior. So, if you’re in a yahoo league, by all means, determine your starting QB based on Yahoo’s projections. Then click over to https://fantasyfootballplayoffsguaranteed.wordpress.com for every other posish (and yes, I had to look up the Tenacious D lyrics to figure out how to spell posish).
This brings me to good ol’ NFL.com. Me and my projections vs the actual league. A little simple math… 6 fantasy positions per week times 8 weeks… that’s 48. Every week, I make my projections before the games are played. And every week, NFL.com makes their projections before the games are played. I take the average difference from my projection for each player from their actual output. I take the average difference from NFL.com’s projection for each player from their actual output. For example, let’s say I project Adrian Peterson will score 15 points, but he actually scores 20. The difference is five (the absolute value of 15 minus 20). But let’s say, NFL.com projects Adrian Peterson will score 30 points, but as previously mentioned in this hypothetical example, he only scored 20. The difference for NFL.com is 10 (30 minus 20). I was off by 5, NFL was off by 10. I was more accurate in this example. I continue this comparison of projections vs performance across 150 total players
Wait, wasn’t I supposed to tell you how I fared against the league? Again, 6 positions per week over 8 weeks gives me 48 opportunities to out-project my competition. Midway through the season, I’ve out-projected NFL by a score of 45-3. Cue the bullet-points:
More accurate QB, K, and DEF projections in 7 of 8 weeks.
More accurate RB, WR, and TE projections in 8 of 8 weeks.
I swept NFL.com by out projecting them at every position during weeks 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, and 8.
Ouch. This is what happens to you, NFL.com, when you project Marques Colston will score 22.2 points in week six. Dude was averaging 7.46 points per game. In week six, he scored a personal season-low 1.1 points.
ESPN.com does a little better than NFL. Im sure by now you know the criteria: I compare the accuracy my projections at each position each week against Yahoo, NFL, and ESPN. Six positions through eight weeks… 48 comparisons. Scoreboard reads Steve Broadway 40, ESPN 8.
Big picture now: there are 6 fantasy football positions, over 8 weeks, compared against 3 competitors. 6x8x3=144. My projections have been more accurate in 107 of those 144 comparisons. That’s a 74% success rate.
There’s also a second method I’ve used to determine the most accurate fantasy football projection service. As opposed to one-to-one position comparisons, this evaluation tool ranks the sites from most-to-least accurate at each position each week. Does that make sense? In other words, the first method would compare this site versus Yahoo at the QB position, for example, and the smaller margin of error essentially gets one point. This second technique compares all four sites at the same time and ranks them in terms of accuracy. So here’s how it looked after week one:
QB |
RB |
WR |
TE |
K |
DEF |
|
SB |
2 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
YAHOO |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
3 |
NFL |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
4 |
ESPN |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
So, in week one, Yahoo had the most accurate QB projections, I had the second most accurate, ESPN came in third, and NFL forth. As you can see these rankings are carried out across each position. Then we add the rankings and/or take the average. In this instance, my score was 9 (2+2+1+2+1+1). Yahoo’s score was 10, NFL posted 24, and ESPN produced 17. Like golf, the low score wins. After carrying out this same process through week 8, here are the standings based on average ranking:
TOTAL |
AVERAGE |
Broadway |
1.6875 |
Yahoo |
1.83333333333333 |
ESPN |
3.02083333333333 |
NFL |
3.45833333333333 |
As for you, Yahoo, and your QB’s projections… I’ve identified the issue. I compare my projections against NFL.com actual scoring, which is difference than the way Yahoo scores their QB stats. NFL subtracts 2 points for INTs, Yahoo only subtracts 1. I will continue to compare my projections against NFL.com’s actual point totals, but I’ll be sure to factor in this revelation.
RANK | NAME | QB WK10 PROJ |
1 | D.Brees | 27.9 |
2 | P.Manning | 25.9 |
3 | R.Griffin III | 20.2 |
4 | M.Stafford | 20.2 |
5 | A.Dalton | 19.6 |
6 | A.Luck | 19.4 |
7 | R.Wilson | 18.8 |
8 | P.Rivers | 18.7 |
9 | C.Newton | 18.2 |
10 | N.Foles | 17.7 |
11 | T.Romo | 17.1 |
12 | J.Locker | 16.9 |
13 | J.Cutler | 16.6 |
14 | T.Pryor | 15.7 |
15 | B.Roethlisberger | 15.6 |
16 | E.Manning | 14.9 |
17 | C.Keenum | 14.5 |
18 | J.Flacco | 14.3 |
19 | C.Ponder | 14.1 |
20 | C.Kaepernick | 14 |
21 | M.Ryan | 14 |
22 | R.Tannehill | 13.9 |
23 | M.Glennon | 13.2 |
24 | S.Wallace | 12.8 |
25 | E.Manuel | 10.9 |
RANK | NAME | RB WK10 PROJ |
1 | A.Peterson | 18 |
2 | M.Forte | 18 |
3 | K.Moreno | 16.2 |
4 | R.Bush | 16 |
5 | L.McCoy | 14.2 |
6 | A.Morris | 13.6 |
7 | M.Lynch | 12.8 |
8 | Z.Stacy | 12.4 |
9 | E.Lacy | 12.1 |
10 | D.Woodhead | 11.6 |
11 | D.Murray | 11.5 |
12 | L.Miller | 10.9 |
13 | F.Jackson | 10.5 |
14 | M.James | 10.2 |
15 | A.Ellington | 10.2 |
16 | C.Johnson | 10.1 |
17 | L.Bell | 9.9 |
18 | R.Jennings | 9.9 |
19 | S.Jackson | 9.8 |
20 | C.Spiller | 9.7 |
21 | T.Richardson | 9.4 |
22 | F.Gore | 9.2 |
23 | R.Rice | 8.9 |
24 | M.Jones-Drew | 8.8 |
25 | M.Tolbert | 8.8 |
26 | B.Tate | 8.4 |
27 | P.Thomas | 7.8 |
28 | R.Mathews | 7.7 |
29 | P.Hillis | 7.5 |
30 | D.Brown | 7.3 |
31 | G.Bernard | 6.8 |
32 | D.Williams | 6.5 |
33 | J.Bell | 6.4 |
34 | R.Mendenhall | 6 |
35 | A.Brown | 5.7 |
36 | D.Sproles | 5.2 |
37 | B.Green-Ellis | 5.1 |
38 | S.Greene | 4.9 |
39 | J.Stewart | 4.9 |
40 | J.Rodgers | 4.9 |
RANK | NAME | WR WK10 PROJ |
1 | C.Johnson | 15.2 |
2 | D.Thomas | 14.3 |
3 | B.Marshall | 13.4 |
4 | W.Welker | 13.2 |
5 | P.Garcon | 13.2 |
6 | K.Allen | 13.2 |
7 | A.Green | 12.9 |
8 | D.Jackson | 12.8 |
9 | A.Jeffery | 12.3 |
10 | D.Bryant | 12 |
11 | T.Hilton | 11.8 |
12 | A.Brown | 11.2 |
13 | A.Johnson | 11.1 |
14 | E.Decker | 10.6 |
15 | V.Jackson | 9.8 |
16 | M.Jones | 9.4 |
17 | M.Wallace | 9.3 |
18 | E.Sanders | 9 |
19 | V.Cruz | 8.8 |
20 | L.Fitzgerald | 8.8 |
21 | D.Moore | 8.6 |
22 | R.White | 8.4 |
23 | K.Wright | 8.4 |
24 | H.Nicks | 8.2 |
25 | T.Williams | 8.2 |
26 | J.Nelson | 8.1 |
27 | A.Boldin | 7.8 |
28 | T.Smith | 7.7 |
29 | M.Floyd | 7.5 |
30 | H.Douglas | 7.2 |
31 | S.Smith | 7 |
32 | S.Johnson | 6.9 |
33 | G.Tate | 6.8 |
34 | C.Shorts | 6.6 |
35 | K.Durham | 5.9 |
36 | D.Hopkins | 5.1 |
37 | D.Baldwin | 5.1 |
38 | B.Hartline | 4.2 |
39 | M.Colston | 4 |
40 | Ja.Jones | 4 |
RANK | NAME | TE WK10 PROJ |
1 | J.Graham | 20.9 |
2 | J.Witten | 11.1 |
3 | J.Thomas | 10.2 |
4 | T.Gonzalez | 9.4 |
5 | G.Olsen | 9.1 |
6 | V.Davis | 8.3 |
7 | A.Gates | 7.8 |
8 | C.Clay | 7.6 |
9 | J.Reed | 6.9 |
10 | M.Bennett | 6.4 |
11 | C.Fleener | 6 |
12 | G.Graham | 5.9 |
13 | J.Cook | 5.3 |
14 | H.Miller | 4.2 |
15 | D.Walker | 3.9 |
RANK | NAME | K WK10 PROJ |
1 | M.Prater | 12 |
2 | R.Gould | 10 |
3 | A.Vinatieri | 9 |
4 | G.Hartley | 9 |
5 | S.Hauschka | 9 |
6 | D.Bailey | 9 |
7 | D.Akers | 8 |
8 | J.Feely | 8 |
9 | S.Suisham | 8 |
10 | N.Novak | 8 |
11 | C.Sturgis | 8 |
12 | M.Nugent | 7 |
13 | P.Dawson | 6 |
14 | S.Janikowski | 6 |
15 | R.Bironas | 6 |
RANK | NAME | DEF WK10 PROJ |
1 | TN | 12 |
2 | ARI | 10 |
3 | CAR | 10 |
4 | DEN | 10 |
5 | CIN | 9 |
6 | SEA | 9 |
7 | SF | 8 |
8 | CHI | 8 |
9 | MIA | 8 |
10 | TB | 7 |
11 | BUF | 7 |
12 | IND | 7 |
13 | DAL | 7 |
14 | OAK | 6 |
15 | NO | 6 |
Once again, last week’s projections were more accurate than Yahoo.com, NFL.com, and ESPN.com. For more information, visit http://www.fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com
updated 11/3/2013 12:08PM
RANK | NAME | QB WK9 PROJ |
1 | D.Brees | 25.7 |
2 | T.Romo | 22.9 |
3 | C.Newton | 22.8 |
4 | A.Rodgers | 22.6 |
5 | P.Rivers | 20.9 |
6 | A.Dalton | 19.3 |
7 | M.Ryan | 18 |
8 | A.Smith | 17.9 |
9 | R.Griffin III | 17.9 |
10 | A.Luck | 17.2 |
11 | T.Pryor | 16.8 |
12 | R.Wilson | 16.5 |
13 | J.Locker | 16.4 |
14 | J.Campbell | 15.5 |
15 | J.McCown | 14.7 |
16 | N.Foles | 13.6 |
17 | J.Flacco | 13.6 |
18 | T.Brady | 13.6 |
19 | B.Roethlisberger | 13.2 |
20 | C.Ponder | 12.6 |
21 | R.Tannehill | 12.4 |
22 | C.Keenum | 10.3 |
23 | G.Smith | 10 |
24 | M.Glennon | 10 |
25 | K.Clemens | 9.8 |
RANK | NAME | RB WK9 PROJ |
1 | J.Charles | 16.3 |
2 | M.Forte | 16.3 |
3 | A.Peterson | 14.7 |
4 | E.Lacy | 13.9 |
5 | M.Lynch | 13.4 |
6 | L.McCoy | 12.5 |
7 | D.McFadden | 12.4 |
8 | A.Morris | 12 |
9 | Z.Stacy | 11.8 |
10 | A.Foster | 11.2 |
11 | D.Woodhead | 11 |
12 | D.Murray | 10.9 |
13 | C.Johnson | 10.9 |
14 | S.Ridley | 10.8 |
15 | R.Rice | 10.7 |
16 | F.Jackson | 10.1 |
17 | S.Jackson | 10.1 |
18 | R.Mathews | 9.9 |
19 | D.Williams | 9.5 |
20 | L.Bell | 8.6 |
21 | G.Bernard | 7.9 |
22 | T.Richardson | 7.6 |
23 | L.Miller | 7.2 |
24 | B.Bolden | 7 |
25 | B.Powell | 6.5 |
26 | M.Tolbert | 6.5 |
27 | D.Sproles | 6.1 |
28 | B.Green-Ellis | 5.9 |
29 | D.Brown | 5.4 |
30 | M.James | 5.2 |
31 | P.Thomas | 5.1 |
32 | B.Pierce | 4.7 |
33 | C.Ogbonnaya | 4.6 |
34 | S.Greene | 4.3 |
35 | C.Ivory | 4.2 |
36 | B.Tate | 4 |
37 | R.Helu | 4 |
38 | L.Blount | 3.9 |
39 | C.Spiller | 3 |
40 | W.McGahee | 3 |
RANK | NAME | WR WK9 PROJ |
1 | D.Bryant | 15.8 |
2 | J.Nelson | 13.6 |
3 | B.Marshall | 13.5 |
4 | J.Gordon | 12.7 |
5 | A.Green | 12 |
6 | D.Moore | 11.9 |
7 | V.Jackson | 11.2 |
8 | D.Jackson | 10.6 |
9 | A.Jeffrey | 10.6 |
10 | M.Jones | 10 |
11 | T.Williams | 9.8 |
12 | G.Tate | 9.4 |
13 | H.Douglas | 9.2 |
14 | A.Brown | 8.2 |
15 | T.Hilton | 8 |
16 | J.Boykin | 8 |
17 | P.Garcon | 7.9 |
18 | K.Allen | 7.9 |
19 | K.Stills | 7.8 |
20 | A.Johnson | 7.6 |
21 | S.Johnson | 7.3 |
22 | T.Smith | 7.2 |
23 | S.Smith | 6.9 |
24 | E.Sanders | 6.2 |
25 | B.LaFell | 6.1 |
26 | L.Moore | 6.1 |
27 | E.Royal | 5.9 |
28 | T.Ginn | 5.9 |
29 | R.Streater | 5.9 |
30 | D.Bowe | 5.8 |
31 | N.Washington | 5.7 |
32 | K.Wright | 5.7 |
33 | D.Hopkins | 5.6 |
34 | D.Amendonla | 5.5 |
35 | J.Kerley | 5.5 |
36 | B.Hartline | 5.4 |
37 | D.McCluster | 4.5 |
38 | G.Jennings | 4.5 |
39 | K.Thompkins | 4.1 |
40 | Ja.Jones | 4 |
RANK | NAME | TE WK9 PROJ |
1 | R.Gronkowski | 10 |
2 | A.Gates | 9.7 |
3 | J.Cameron | 8.8 |
4 | J.Graham | 8.6 |
5 | C.Clay | 7.9 |
6 | M.Bennett | 6.9 |
7 | J.Reed | 6.9 |
8 | J.Witten | 6.7 |
9 | T.Gonzales | 6.4 |
10 | D.Walker | 5.9 |
11 | G.Olsen | 5.6 |
12 | C.Fleener | 4.8 |
13 | H.Miller | 4.5 |
14 | G.Graham | 4.3 |
15 | K.Rudolph | 3.9 |
RANK | NAME | K WK9 PROJ |
1 | M.Crosby | 10 |
2 | S.Gostkowski | 10 |
3 | A.Vinatieri | 9 |
4 | S.Hauschka | 9 |
5 | D.Bailey | 9 |
6 | M.Bryant | 9 |
7 | N.Novak | 8 |
8 | G.Hartley | 8 |
9 | J.Tucker | 8 |
10 | R.Gould | 8 |
11 | R.Succop | 8 |
12 | K.Forbath | 8 |
13 | A.Henery | 8 |
14 | N.Folk | 7 |
15 | D.Carpenter | 7 |
RANK | NAME | DEF WK9 PROJ |
1 | KC | 13 |
2 | SEA | 12 |
3 | NO | 11 |
4 | CIN | 10 |
5 | IND | 10 |
6 | CAR | 9 |
7 | TN | 9 |
8 | DAL | 9 |
9 | STL | 8 |
10 | NE | 8 |
11 | OAK | 8 |
12 | BAL | 8 |
13 | CLE | 7 |
14 | HOUS | 7 |
15 | CHI | 7 |
Updated 10/27/2013 at 11:43 AM
For more information visit: www.fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com
RANK | NAME | QB WK8 PROJ |
1 | P.Manning | 29.8 |
2 | D.Brees | 22.7 |
3 | M.Stafford | 20.9 |
4 | A.Rodgers | 20.8 |
5 | T.Romo | 19.4 |
6 | M.Ryan | 18.6 |
7 | R.Griffin III | 17.9 |
8 | R.Wilson | 16.4 |
9 | M.Vick | 15.9 |
10 | C.Newton | 15.7 |
11 | A.Smith | 15.4 |
12 | C.Kaepernick | 14.8 |
13 | T.Brady | 14.4 |
14 | E.Manning | 13.9 |
15 | B.Roethlisberger | 13.7 |
16 | A.Dalton | 13.4 |
17 | T.Pryor | 13 |
18 | M.Glennon | 13 |
19 | G.Smith | 12.6 |
20 | T.Lewis | 12.2 |
21 | C.Palmer | 11.9 |
22 | R.Tannehill | 10.2 |
23 | C.Ponder | 6.4 |
24 | K.Clemens | 6 |
25 | J.Campbell | 6 |
RANK | NAME | RB WK8 PROJ |
1 | J.Charles | 20.7 |
2 | K.Moreno | 17.9 |
3 | M.Lynch | 15.9 |
4 | F.Gore | 14.9 |
5 | L.McCoy | 14.5 |
6 | E.Lacy | 12.9 |
7 | D.Murray | 12.7 |
8 | A.Peterson | 12.2 |
9 | A.Morris | 11.8 |
10 | R.Bush | 11.6 |
11 | F.Jackson | 10.6 |
12 | D.McFadden | 10.4 |
13 | S.Jackson | 9.3 |
14 | D.Williams | 8.2 |
15 | M.Ball | 7.4 |
16 | S.Ridley | 6.9 |
17 | M.Jones-Drew | 6.8 |
18 | L.Bell | 6.5 |
19 | D.Sproles | 6.4 |
20 | A.Ellington | 6.3 |
21 | G.Bernard | 6.2 |
22 | Z.Stacy | 6.1 |
23 | L.Miller | 5.6 |
24 | P.Thomas | 5.4 |
25 | M.James | 5.4 |
26 | J.Snelling | 5.2 |
27 | R.Jennings | 4.6 |
28 | P.Hillis | 4.3 |
29 | M.Tolbert | 4.3 |
30 | B.Green-Ellis | 4.2 |
31 | J.Rodgers | 4.1 |
32 | J.Bell | 3.5 |
33 | B.Jacobs | 3.4 |
34 | C.Ivory | 3.3 |
35 | B.Powell | 3.3 |
36 | C.Ogbonnaya | 3.1 |
37 | W.McGahee | 3 |
38 | J.Franklin | 2.9 |
39 | R.Helu | 2.6 |
40 | B.Bolden | 2.6 |
RANK | NAME | WR WK8 PROJ |
1 | C.Johnson | 14.6 |
2 | D.Bryant | 13.9 |
3 | D.Thomas | 12.9 |
4 | E.Decker | 12.9 |
5 | J.Nelson | 12.8 |
6 | W.Welker | 11.9 |
7 | A.Brown | 11.5 |
8 | A.Green | 11.4 |
9 | V.Cruz | 10.9 |
10 | D.Jackson | 10.7 |
11 | V.Jackson | 10.2 |
12 | M.Colston | 9.9 |
13 | J.Blackmon | 9.3 |
14 | P.Garcon | 9 |
15 | H.Nicks | 9 |
16 | S.Rice | 8.8 |
17 | T.Williams | 8.8 |
18 | J.Boykin | 8.7 |
19 | D.Moore | 8.2 |
20 | H.Douglas | 8.1 |
21 | L.Fitzgerald | 7.9 |
22 | A.Boldin | 7.7 |
23 | B.Hartline | 7.3 |
24 | J.Edelman | 7 |
25 | G.Jennings | 6.8 |
26 | S.Smith | 6.8 |
27 | M.Floyd | 6.8 |
28 | B.LaFell | 6.5 |
29 | S.Johnson | 6.4 |
30 | J.Gordon | 6.3 |
31 | C.Shorts | 6.3 |
32 | D.Bowe | 6.2 |
33 | S.Moss | 5.9 |
34 | G.Tate | 5.8 |
35 | R.Randle | 5.8 |
36 | J.Kerley | 5.4 |
37 | M.Wallace | 5.3 |
38 | K.Thompkins | 5 |
39 | L.Hankerson | 4.9 |
40 | R.Streater | 4.2 |
RANK | NAME | TE WK8 PROJ |
1 | J.Thomas | 13.6 |
2 | R.Gronkowski | 11.9 |
3 | V.Davis | 11.9 |
4 | C.Clay | 8.3 |
5 | J.Cameron | 8 |
6 | J.Cumberland | 7.4 |
7 | T.Gonzalez | 6.9 |
8 | J.Reed | 6.7 |
9 | J.Witten | 6.6 |
10 | G.Olsen | 6.5 |
11 | J.Cook | 6.1 |
12 | J.Graham | 6 |
13 | J.Fauria | 4.9 |
14 | J.Gresham | 4.6 |
15 | H.Miller | 4.4 |
RANK | NAME | K WK8 PROJ |
1 | M.Prater | 10 |
2 | B.Walsh | 10 |
3 | K.Forbath | 10 |
4 | M.Crosby | 9 |
5 | G.Hartley | 9 |
6 | S.Hauschka | 9 |
7 | A.Henery | 9 |
8 | D.Bailey | 9 |
9 | M.Bryant | 8 |
10 | M.Nugent | 8 |
11 | S.Gostkowski | 8 |
12 | P.Dawson | 7 |
13 | S.Suisham | 7 |
14 | N.Folk | 7 |
15 | D.Carpenter | 7 |
RANK | NAME | DEF WK8 PROJ |
1 | KC | 12 |
2 | SF | 9 |
3 | CAR | 9 |
4 | SEA | 9 |
5 | NO | 8 |
6 | NE | 8 |
7 | ATL | 8 |
8 | CIN | 7 |
9 | CLE | 7 |
10 | OAK | 7 |
11 | PHIL | 7 |
12 | TB | 7 |
13 | NYJ | 7 |
14 | PIT | 7 |
15 | GB | 7 |
“I’m not conceited. Conceit is a fault and I have no faults.”
-David Lee Roth
Teams using the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix (fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com) won 67% of their games in week six. 58% scored 100 points or more, and the average output was 102 points. Remember the winning percentage for teams that score 100 points in a given week is 85%!
Now, when I say my projections were more accurate than this site or that site at this position or that position, I may not be clear on what that means exactly. So, just to be clear, let me explain what I mean by “more accurate.” Each week, I project the highest scoring players at each recognized fantasy football position according to the following break down:
Because, honestly… do you really need to know anything beyond that? Do you really need to know what the 23rd ranked kicker is likely to score in a given week? So I figure this breakdown is fair and thorough, and will give fantasy football players a realistic insight regarding the players they should start or sit. If you don’t have a QB that’s among the top 25 in the league, you might want to take a dip in the free agency pool. Philip Rivers is still out there.
My projections were off the charts this week. But before I get into the statistic breakdown of my dominance over the forecasting competition, here’s a couple of head-scratching observations about the other guys.
NFL.com should really go by WTF.com, because I don’t know how you justify projecting Gronkowski would score 13.6 (when he was inactive), Glennon would score ZERO (as a starting QB, he scored 19.92 points, finishing 8th amongst all QB’s), and Brandon Marshall projected as the 58th best WR prospect in week 6. Marshall– green shoes and all– scored over 20 points and was the second highest scoring receiver.
Going back to Glennon for a second, he actually out-scored Rodgers, Brees, and Manning. No one saw that coming, but I knew that he’d score at least ONE point.
Yahoo had Pierre Garcon projected as the 3rd highest scoring WR. He finished 35th.
ESPN placed Torrey Smith as the second highest projected receiver, but Josh Gordon at 50th! Over the last four weeks, Gordon has averaged the 5th most points amongst all WR’s.
So again, I publish my projections here on this site every Thursday (in time for the Thursday night game) and update the projections frequently before the Sunday afternoon kickoff. I take the difference between my projections and the players actual output and compare the average difference versus NFL.com, Yahoo.com, and ESPN.com. The smaller the discrepancy, the more accurate the projections.
Here’s how my week 6 projections fared:
For more information, visit http://www.fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com
I my previous post, I mentioned that I have Julio Jones on seven of my twenty-four teams. That’s a lot of lost production. Here’s I’d like to document my next step for those seven teams, as I’ll either be relying on techniques I employ as part of the fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com or seeking waiver wire/free agent pickups to save these doomed teams. I’ve always said that the first round pretty much scripts itself in every draft; there’s very little deviation and guesswork in terms of who each teams is going to draft. The second round is a big part of where each fantasy league is won or lost. Typically, the most successful teams draft an elite WR in the second round. In fact, based on last year’s study, 54% of the teams that led their league in scoring drafted at least one WR in the first two rounds. The point is, losing Jones for the year is potential devastating for teams that use this time-tested drafting practice. Well then, here’s what I got cookin’:
This is definitely a critical time for fantasy football owners, as playoff teams are starting to emerge. At fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com, there’s a chapter dedicated to how to overcome a first round draft bust. The same principle would apply to surviving a key injury to an elite player like Julio Jones.
I had a very good week five, as my combined win-loss record was 18-5-1. It’s time for ESPN to start using fractional points, because ties are just the absolute worst. Keep in mind, my twenty-four teams are allotted in across NFL.com, Yahoo.com, and the aforementioned ESPN.com. 18-5-1. That’s 77%. That kind of winning percentage will get you into the playoffs. Do I pull off that success rate every week? No. But I do okay. I do okay.
Overall, my teams are 76-42-2. When I saw “42” losses, my initial reaction was sheer and utter panic. Did my Fantasy Football Draft Matrix (ffdraftmatrix.com) fail? Deep breath. Do the match. Okay, my winning percentage is 67%. Even more impressive is the rate at which my teams would qualify for the playoffs if the season was to end today…64%. Only 40% of all teams make the playoffs. When a 40% success rate improves to 64%, that’s a 60% increase!
That said, just as I’m about to spike the football, I’m afraid my reign of pretty-friggin-good is in serious jeopardy. You see, I have Julio Jones on seven of my teams. When a second round player goes down for the season, it might be too much for any fantasy team to endure. Who am I going to find in free agency or waivers that can replace his production? Vincent Brown? Luckily, I’m loaded at TE across most of my teams as I routinely drafted Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron, and Jimmy Graham, so it’s kinda like having an extra player when you have an elite TE. Plus, ESPN allows TE’s at the flex position, so I’ll have teams that are starting two of the three previously mentioned TE’s (Cameron, Graham, Thomas). I guess what I’m really trying to say is… I’m not the type to make excuses for poor fantasy performance, but IIIIII”m gonna make an excuse for poor fantasy performance going forward just in case. Here’s a quick snap shot of where I am overall: 67% percent winning percentage, with 64% of my teams making the playoffs. By the way, that’s the exact same percentage of my teams that made the playoffs last year across 28 leagues.
Again, the reason for this impressive rate of success is two-fold. First I employ my patented fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com method of drafting. Second, I produce my own weekly players projections which are proven the most accurate in the business. So not only am I drafting the players that will give me the best chance of winning, I’m also starting the right guys at the right time. Here’s the results for my week five projections (which, I’ll admit doesn’t reflect my typical accuracy as compared to most weeks, but I still won the week vs my peers).
Typically, my projections are more accurate than all three sites in at least four of the six fantasy positions, but Yahoo has been really good lately. I’ll come up with a bunch of stats later to support that. Just make sure you check my projections on this blog on Sunday morning before you set your lineup.