Week 14 Results

The regular season is over across all platforms.  Again, I’m in 24 fantasy football leagues.  I use the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix to create my teams, as well as my own projections (found on this site) to set my lineups every week.  Week 14 wasn’t overly spectacular, as my teams won 56% of the time.  But now that the regular season is in the books let’s take a look at the larger trends that have emerged from the unbelievable successful season I’ve had… the type of success I’d like help you obtain.

  • In Week 14, my teams averaged over 102 points per game.  Teams that score 100+ points win 89% of the time.
  • 6 of my 24 teams finished in first place in their league; 25%
  • 7 of my 24 teams finished in the top two; 29%
  • 14 of my 24 teams finished in the top three; 58%
  • 18 of my 24 teams finished in the top four (playoff-bound); 75%
  • 23 of my 24 teams finished in the top six; 96%
  • 4 of my 6 teams that did NOT qualify for the playoffs, missed the post-season by one win or tie-breaker.
  •  8 of my 24 teams led their leagues in scoring; 33%
  • 11 of my 24 teams finished in the top two in scoring; 46%
  • 17 of my 24 teams finished in the top three in scoring; 71%

Interesting that 8 of my teams led the league in scoring, but only 6 of my teams finished in first place in terms of wins/losses.  See?  I have bad luck, but STILL succeed at a high rate.  Across my study of over 50 leagues during the past two season, I found that teams that score 100-plus points in a given week win their game at a rate of 89%.  When I score 100 points or more, I only win at a rate of 77%.  So, if the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix can work for unlucky me, it can work for anyone.

Now for my favorite part.  This is where I look at the improvement my methods offer.  I compete in 10 team leagues in which the top four teams (by win/loss %) make the playoffs.  This means, only 1 out of 10 teams can be ranked in first place in their league.  That is to say, 10% of all all fantasy football teams will finish first.  Furthermore, 4 out of 10 teams make the playoffs, or, 40%

My teams finish in first place at a rate of 25%.  My teams make the playoffs at a rate of 75%

Feel free to click here (and use the “What is the percentage increase/decrease” function) to verify these numbers, but here’s my rate of improvement in these two categories:

  • Increasing 10% to 25% is a 150% increase.
  • Increasing 40% to 75% is a 87.5% increase.

That means teams using the FFDM and the projections found on this site make the playoffs 87.5% more often, and are the top seed in the playoffs 150% more often.

Not bad for a guy who drafted Arian Foster 10 times (out for the year since week 9), Julio Jones 7 times (out for the year since week 5), and Rob Gronkowski (missed the first six games and out for the year after last week).  Again, these are all top draft picks.  I took Foster TEN times in the first round.  I picked Julio 7 times in the second or third round.  The Gronker fell to me  in the fifth round 10 times.  I drafted ALL THREE of these guys on 3 of my 24 teams.  Two of them made the playoffs.  I drafted at TWO of these three guys on 5 of my teams…and 4 of those teams made the playoffs.

This illustrates perhaps the greatest strength of utilizing the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix to build your team.  Basically, your team becomes first round draft bust proof.  Arian Foster did not play an entire season, and by the time his season was over, he had produced the 19th most points among RB’s.  In other words, the player I drafted most frequently in the first round among my 24 teams did not adversely affect my seasons by his disappointing production and season-ending injury.  75% of my teams still made the playoffs.

For more information, visit fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com.  The new down-loadable e-book will be available in the summer, and will once again offer a “make the playoffs or double your money-back” guarantee.

First draft of this week’s projections will be up before tonight’s game.

 

Week 9 Update

Going into the Sunday night game, I was projected to go 23-1 in week nine!  Man, I wish that held up, but things broke bad, and I ended up going 19-5.  My teams all used the fantasy football draft matrix (www.fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com) and the projections found on this blog to produce teams that averaged– AVERAGED– 108.5 points per game in week 9.  Typically ,when score 100 or more you win 89% of the time.  Sixty-seven percent of these teams would qualify for the playoffs if the season ended after week nine.  

I did face one opponent that put up 194.08 points.  Yeah, I lost that one.

Mid-Season Update

Ok, so I know that weeks 9 and 10 are in the books, but I wanted to check in to report on my success at the official halfway point of the season through week 8.  As usual, I’ll be analyzing my success on two fronts: how my teams are performing (win/loss, ppg, etc.), and the accuracy of my weekly projections.

So, how are my teams doing?  First, let me say that I have 24 fantasy football teams across Yahoo.com, NFL.com, and ESPN.com.  I would have had more teams to test the fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com if not for my wife forcing to go on vacation for a week at the end of August.  And by “vacation”, I mean a week with HER family.  Not the best use of my time.

But my teams are doing extremely well.  I was in 28 leagues last year, and I’m getting virtually identical results.  Cue the bullet-points:

  • As of week 8, 17 of 24 teams would qualify for the playoffs if the regular season was to end at week 8.  That’s 71% of teams that used the fantasyfootballdraftmatrix to draft and teams using the projections at https://fantasyfootballplayoffsguaranteed.wordpress.com to set their lineups.  Keep in mind, only 40% of teams make the playoffs.  So, when 40% improves to 71%, that’s a 78% increase!  Again, if you use our draft method, and set your lineups based on our projections, you will improve your chances of making the playoffs by 78% (as of week 8)

  • 22 out of 24 teams are .500 or better.  Good lord, that’s 92%.  Think about it…92% of the teams using our process are winning at least half their games and are in the playoff hunt.  Teams that use the fantasyfootballdraftmatrix and use the projections at https://fantasyfootballplayoffsguaranteed.wordpress.com are .500 or better 92% of the time.

  • Sadly, 2 of 24 teams using our process have a losing record.  Thats 8%.  Single-digit number eight.

  • There are no teams in last place in their league.

  • There are no teams in second-to-last place in their league.

  • 6 of 24 teams (25%) are in first place for their league.  That’s a 150% increase over the 1-in-10 odds!

  • 9 of 24 teams (38%) are in the first or second place in their league.  That’s a 90% increase!

  • 14 of 24 teams (58%) are in third place or better in their league.  That’s a 93% increase!

  • 17 of 24 teams (71%) are in forth place or better.  But you already knew that.

  • 19 of 24 teams (79%) are in fifth place or better.

  • 88% of the teams average 90 points per game or better.  The winning percentage of teams that score 90-99 ppg is 59%, which will qualify you for the playoffs more often than not.

In the words of Darth Vader, “Impressive… most impressive.”

Ok, and then there is the analysis of our weekly projections here at Broadway Fantasy Football…

When it comes to projecting the accuracy on a week-to-week basis of ONLY quarterbacks in the NFL… YAHOO ABSOLUTELY SCHOOLS ME.  This year, and this year only, they have been more accurate each and every week  at projecting the points that the top 25 QB’s would score.  Gotta admit it.  Kudos, baby.  

Okay, so one platform smokes me every week at ONE OF SIX fantasy football positions. Let’s look at how I do against Yahoo at the other five positions.  Again,Yahoo beats me 8 weeks to zip at the QB position (because they were more accurate than me during each of the first 8 weeks of the season).  Looking at the other five positions (RB, WR, TE, K, and DEF), my combined weekly projections were more accurate by a margin of 22-18.  That’s a little closer than I would like, but still superior.  So, if you’re in a yahoo league, by all means, determine your starting QB based on Yahoo’s projections.  Then click over to https://fantasyfootballplayoffsguaranteed.wordpress.com for every other posish (and yes, I had to look up the Tenacious D lyrics to figure out how to spell posish).

This brings me to good ol’ NFL.com.  Me and my projections vs the actual league.  A little simple math… 6 fantasy positions per week times 8 weeks… that’s 48.  Every week, I make my projections before the games are played.  And every week, NFL.com makes their projections before the games are played.  I take the average difference from my projection for each player from their actual output.  I take the average difference from NFL.com’s projection for each player from their actual output.  For example, let’s say I project Adrian Peterson will score 15 points, but he actually scores 20.  The difference is five (the absolute value of 15 minus 20).  But let’s say, NFL.com projects Adrian Peterson will score 30 points, but as previously mentioned in this hypothetical example, he only scored 20.  The difference for NFL.com is 10 (30 minus 20).  I was off by 5, NFL was off by 10.  I was more accurate in this example.  I continue this comparison of projections vs performance across 150 total players

  • 25 QB’s
  • 40 RB’s
  • 40 WR’s
  • 15 TE’s
  • 15 K’s
  • 15 DEF’s 

Wait, wasn’t I supposed to tell you how I fared against the league?  Again, 6 positions per week over 8 weeks gives me 48 opportunities to out-project my competition.  Midway through the season, I’ve out-projected NFL by a score of 45-3.  Cue the bullet-points:

  • More accurate QB, K, and DEF projections in 7 of 8 weeks.

  • More accurate RB, WR, and TE projections in 8 of 8 weeks.

  • I swept NFL.com by out projecting them at every position during weeks 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, and 8.

Ouch.  This is what happens to you, NFL.com, when you project Marques Colston will score 22.2 points in week six.  Dude was averaging 7.46 points per game.  In week six, he scored a personal season-low 1.1 points.

ESPN.com does a little better than NFL.  Im sure by now you know the criteria: I compare the accuracy my projections at each position each week against Yahoo, NFL, and ESPN.  Six positions through eight weeks… 48 comparisons.  Scoreboard reads Steve Broadway 40, ESPN 8.  

Big picture now: there are 6 fantasy football positions, over 8 weeks, compared against 3 competitors.  6x8x3=144.  My projections have been more accurate in 107 of those 144 comparisons.  That’s a 74% success rate.

There’s also a second method I’ve used to determine the most accurate fantasy football projection service.  As opposed to one-to-one position comparisons, this evaluation tool ranks the sites from most-to-least accurate at each position each week.  Does that make sense?  In other words, the first method would compare this site versus Yahoo at the QB position, for example, and the smaller margin of error essentially gets one point.  This second technique compares all four sites at the same time and ranks them in terms of accuracy.  So here’s how it looked after week one:

 

QB

RB

WR

TE

K

DEF

SB

2

2

1

2

1

1

YAHOO

1

1

2

1

2

3

NFL

4

4

4

4

4

4

ESPN

3

3

3

3

3

2

So, in week one, Yahoo had the most accurate QB projections, I had the second most accurate, ESPN came in third, and NFL forth.  As you can see these rankings are carried out across each position.  Then we add the rankings and/or take the average.  In this instance, my score was 9 (2+2+1+2+1+1).  Yahoo’s score was 10, NFL posted 24, and ESPN produced 17.  Like golf, the low score wins.  After carrying out this same process through week 8, here are the standings based on average ranking:

TOTAL

AVERAGE

Broadway

1.6875

Yahoo

1.83333333333333

ESPN

3.02083333333333

NFL

3.45833333333333

 

As for you, Yahoo, and your QB’s projections… I’ve identified the issue.  I compare my projections against NFL.com actual scoring, which is difference than the way Yahoo scores their QB stats.  NFL subtracts 2 points for INTs, Yahoo only subtracts 1.  I will continue to compare my projections against NFL.com’s actual point totals, but I’ll be sure to factor in this revelation.  

 

Week 10 Projections

RANK NAME QB WK10 PROJ
1 D.Brees 27.9
2 P.Manning 25.9
3 R.Griffin III 20.2
4 M.Stafford 20.2
5 A.Dalton 19.6
6 A.Luck 19.4
7 R.Wilson 18.8
8 P.Rivers 18.7
9 C.Newton 18.2
10 N.Foles 17.7
11 T.Romo 17.1
12 J.Locker 16.9
13 J.Cutler 16.6
14 T.Pryor 15.7
15 B.Roethlisberger 15.6
16 E.Manning 14.9
17 C.Keenum 14.5
18 J.Flacco 14.3
19 C.Ponder 14.1
20 C.Kaepernick 14
21 M.Ryan 14
22 R.Tannehill 13.9
23 M.Glennon 13.2
24 S.Wallace 12.8
25 E.Manuel 10.9
     
RANK NAME RB WK10 PROJ
1 A.Peterson 18
2 M.Forte 18
3 K.Moreno 16.2
4 R.Bush 16
5 L.McCoy 14.2
6 A.Morris 13.6
7 M.Lynch 12.8
8 Z.Stacy 12.4
9 E.Lacy 12.1
10 D.Woodhead 11.6
11 D.Murray 11.5
12 L.Miller 10.9
13 F.Jackson 10.5
14 M.James 10.2
15 A.Ellington 10.2
16 C.Johnson 10.1
17 L.Bell 9.9
18 R.Jennings 9.9
19 S.Jackson 9.8
20 C.Spiller 9.7
21 T.Richardson 9.4
22 F.Gore 9.2
23 R.Rice 8.9
24 M.Jones-Drew 8.8
25 M.Tolbert 8.8
26 B.Tate 8.4
27 P.Thomas 7.8
28 R.Mathews 7.7
29 P.Hillis 7.5
30 D.Brown 7.3
31 G.Bernard 6.8
32 D.Williams 6.5
33 J.Bell 6.4
34 R.Mendenhall 6
35 A.Brown 5.7
36 D.Sproles 5.2
37 B.Green-Ellis 5.1
38 S.Greene 4.9
39 J.Stewart 4.9
40 J.Rodgers 4.9
     
RANK NAME WR WK10 PROJ
1 C.Johnson 15.2
2 D.Thomas 14.3
3 B.Marshall 13.4
4 W.Welker 13.2
5 P.Garcon 13.2
6 K.Allen 13.2
7 A.Green 12.9
8 D.Jackson 12.8
9 A.Jeffery 12.3
10 D.Bryant 12
11 T.Hilton 11.8
12 A.Brown 11.2
13 A.Johnson 11.1
14 E.Decker 10.6
15 V.Jackson 9.8
16 M.Jones 9.4
17 M.Wallace 9.3
18 E.Sanders 9
19 V.Cruz 8.8
20 L.Fitzgerald 8.8
21 D.Moore 8.6
22 R.White 8.4
23 K.Wright 8.4
24 H.Nicks 8.2
25 T.Williams 8.2
26 J.Nelson 8.1
27 A.Boldin 7.8
28 T.Smith 7.7
29 M.Floyd 7.5
30 H.Douglas 7.2
31 S.Smith 7
32 S.Johnson 6.9
33 G.Tate 6.8
34 C.Shorts 6.6
35 K.Durham 5.9
36 D.Hopkins 5.1
37 D.Baldwin 5.1
38 B.Hartline 4.2
39 M.Colston 4
40 Ja.Jones 4
     
RANK NAME TE WK10 PROJ
1 J.Graham 20.9
2 J.Witten 11.1
3 J.Thomas 10.2
4 T.Gonzalez 9.4
5 G.Olsen 9.1
6 V.Davis 8.3
7 A.Gates 7.8
8 C.Clay 7.6
9 J.Reed 6.9
10 M.Bennett 6.4
11 C.Fleener 6
12 G.Graham 5.9
13 J.Cook 5.3
14 H.Miller 4.2
15 D.Walker 3.9
     
RANK NAME K WK10 PROJ
1 M.Prater 12
2 R.Gould 10
3 A.Vinatieri 9
4 G.Hartley 9
5 S.Hauschka 9
6 D.Bailey 9
7 D.Akers 8
8 J.Feely 8
9 S.Suisham 8
10 N.Novak 8
11 C.Sturgis 8
12 M.Nugent 7
13 P.Dawson 6
14 S.Janikowski 6
15 R.Bironas 6
     
RANK NAME DEF WK10 PROJ
1 TN 12
2 ARI 10
3 CAR 10
4 DEN 10
5 CIN 9
6 SEA 9
7 SF 8
8 CHI 8
9 MIA 8
10 TB 7
11 BUF 7
12 IND 7
13 DAL 7
14 OAK 6
15 NO 6

Week 9 Projections

Once again, last week’s projections were more accurate than Yahoo.com, NFL.com, and ESPN.com.  For more information, visit http://www.fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com

updated 11/3/2013 12:08PM

RANK NAME QB WK9 PROJ
1 D.Brees 25.7
2 T.Romo 22.9
3 C.Newton 22.8
4 A.Rodgers 22.6
5 P.Rivers 20.9
6 A.Dalton 19.3
7 M.Ryan 18
8 A.Smith 17.9
9 R.Griffin III 17.9
10 A.Luck 17.2
11 T.Pryor 16.8
12 R.Wilson 16.5
13 J.Locker 16.4
14 J.Campbell 15.5
15 J.McCown 14.7
16 N.Foles 13.6
17 J.Flacco 13.6
18 T.Brady 13.6
19 B.Roethlisberger 13.2
20 C.Ponder 12.6
21 R.Tannehill 12.4
22 C.Keenum 10.3
23 G.Smith 10
24 M.Glennon 10
25 K.Clemens 9.8
RANK NAME RB WK9 PROJ
1 J.Charles 16.3
2 M.Forte 16.3
3 A.Peterson 14.7
4 E.Lacy 13.9
5 M.Lynch 13.4
6 L.McCoy 12.5
7 D.McFadden 12.4
8 A.Morris 12
9 Z.Stacy 11.8
10 A.Foster 11.2
11 D.Woodhead 11
12 D.Murray 10.9
13 C.Johnson 10.9
14 S.Ridley 10.8
15 R.Rice 10.7
16 F.Jackson 10.1
17 S.Jackson 10.1
18 R.Mathews 9.9
19 D.Williams 9.5
20 L.Bell 8.6
21 G.Bernard 7.9
22 T.Richardson 7.6
23 L.Miller 7.2
24 B.Bolden 7
25 B.Powell 6.5
26 M.Tolbert 6.5
27 D.Sproles 6.1
28 B.Green-Ellis 5.9
29 D.Brown 5.4
30 M.James 5.2
31 P.Thomas 5.1
32 B.Pierce 4.7
33 C.Ogbonnaya 4.6
34 S.Greene 4.3
35 C.Ivory 4.2
36 B.Tate 4
37 R.Helu 4
38 L.Blount 3.9
39 C.Spiller 3
40 W.McGahee 3
RANK NAME WR WK9 PROJ
1 D.Bryant 15.8
2 J.Nelson 13.6
3 B.Marshall 13.5
4 J.Gordon 12.7
5 A.Green 12
6 D.Moore 11.9
7 V.Jackson 11.2
8 D.Jackson 10.6
9 A.Jeffrey 10.6
10 M.Jones 10
11 T.Williams 9.8
12 G.Tate 9.4
13 H.Douglas 9.2
14 A.Brown 8.2
15 T.Hilton 8
16 J.Boykin 8
17 P.Garcon 7.9
18 K.Allen 7.9
19 K.Stills 7.8
20 A.Johnson 7.6
21 S.Johnson 7.3
22 T.Smith 7.2
23 S.Smith 6.9
24 E.Sanders 6.2
25 B.LaFell 6.1
26 L.Moore 6.1
27 E.Royal 5.9
28 T.Ginn 5.9
29 R.Streater 5.9
30 D.Bowe 5.8
31 N.Washington 5.7
32 K.Wright 5.7
33 D.Hopkins 5.6
34 D.Amendonla 5.5
35 J.Kerley 5.5
36 B.Hartline 5.4
37 D.McCluster 4.5
38 G.Jennings 4.5
39 K.Thompkins 4.1
40 Ja.Jones 4
RANK NAME TE WK9 PROJ
1 R.Gronkowski 10
2 A.Gates 9.7
3 J.Cameron 8.8
4 J.Graham 8.6
5 C.Clay 7.9
6 M.Bennett 6.9
7 J.Reed 6.9
8 J.Witten 6.7
9 T.Gonzales 6.4
10 D.Walker 5.9
11 G.Olsen 5.6
12 C.Fleener 4.8
13 H.Miller 4.5
14 G.Graham 4.3
15 K.Rudolph 3.9
RANK NAME K WK9 PROJ
1 M.Crosby 10
2 S.Gostkowski 10
3 A.Vinatieri 9
4 S.Hauschka 9
5 D.Bailey 9
6 M.Bryant 9
7 N.Novak 8
8 G.Hartley 8
9 J.Tucker 8
10 R.Gould 8
11 R.Succop 8
12 K.Forbath 8
13 A.Henery 8
14 N.Folk 7
15 D.Carpenter 7
RANK NAME DEF WK9 PROJ
1 KC 13
2 SEA 12
3 NO 11
4 CIN 10
5 IND 10
6 CAR 9
7 TN 9
8 DAL 9
9 STL 8
10 NE 8
11 OAK 8
12 BAL 8
13 CLE 7
14 HOUS 7
15 CHI 7

Week 8 Projections

Updated 10/27/2013 at 11:43 AM

For more information visit:  www.fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com

RANK NAME QB WK8 PROJ
1 P.Manning 29.8
2 D.Brees 22.7
3 M.Stafford 20.9
4 A.Rodgers 20.8
5 T.Romo 19.4
6 M.Ryan 18.6
7 R.Griffin III 17.9
8 R.Wilson 16.4
9 M.Vick 15.9
10 C.Newton 15.7
11 A.Smith 15.4
12 C.Kaepernick 14.8
13 T.Brady 14.4
14 E.Manning 13.9
15 B.Roethlisberger 13.7
16 A.Dalton 13.4
17 T.Pryor 13
18 M.Glennon 13
19 G.Smith 12.6
20 T.Lewis 12.2
21 C.Palmer 11.9
22 R.Tannehill 10.2
23 C.Ponder 6.4
24 K.Clemens 6
25 J.Campbell 6
RANK NAME RB WK8 PROJ
1 J.Charles 20.7
2 K.Moreno 17.9
3 M.Lynch 15.9
4 F.Gore 14.9
5 L.McCoy 14.5
6 E.Lacy 12.9
7 D.Murray 12.7
8 A.Peterson 12.2
9 A.Morris 11.8
10 R.Bush 11.6
11 F.Jackson 10.6
12 D.McFadden 10.4
13 S.Jackson 9.3
14 D.Williams 8.2
15 M.Ball 7.4
16 S.Ridley 6.9
17 M.Jones-Drew 6.8
18 L.Bell 6.5
19 D.Sproles 6.4
20 A.Ellington 6.3
21 G.Bernard 6.2
22 Z.Stacy 6.1
23 L.Miller 5.6
24 P.Thomas 5.4
25 M.James 5.4
26 J.Snelling 5.2
27 R.Jennings 4.6
28 P.Hillis 4.3
29 M.Tolbert 4.3
30 B.Green-Ellis 4.2
31 J.Rodgers 4.1
32 J.Bell 3.5
33 B.Jacobs 3.4
34 C.Ivory 3.3
35 B.Powell 3.3
36 C.Ogbonnaya 3.1
37 W.McGahee 3
38 J.Franklin 2.9
39 R.Helu 2.6
40 B.Bolden 2.6
RANK NAME WR WK8 PROJ
1 C.Johnson 14.6
2 D.Bryant 13.9
3 D.Thomas 12.9
4 E.Decker 12.9
5 J.Nelson 12.8
6 W.Welker 11.9
7 A.Brown 11.5
8 A.Green 11.4
9 V.Cruz 10.9
10 D.Jackson 10.7
11 V.Jackson 10.2
12 M.Colston 9.9
13 J.Blackmon 9.3
14 P.Garcon 9
15 H.Nicks 9
16 S.Rice 8.8
17 T.Williams 8.8
18 J.Boykin 8.7
19 D.Moore 8.2
20 H.Douglas 8.1
21 L.Fitzgerald 7.9
22 A.Boldin 7.7
23 B.Hartline 7.3
24 J.Edelman 7
25 G.Jennings 6.8
26 S.Smith 6.8
27 M.Floyd 6.8
28 B.LaFell 6.5
29 S.Johnson 6.4
30 J.Gordon 6.3
31 C.Shorts 6.3
32 D.Bowe 6.2
33 S.Moss 5.9
34 G.Tate 5.8
35 R.Randle 5.8
36 J.Kerley 5.4
37 M.Wallace 5.3
38 K.Thompkins 5
39 L.Hankerson 4.9
40 R.Streater 4.2
RANK NAME TE WK8 PROJ
1 J.Thomas 13.6
2 R.Gronkowski 11.9
3 V.Davis 11.9
4 C.Clay 8.3
5 J.Cameron 8
6 J.Cumberland 7.4
7 T.Gonzalez 6.9
8 J.Reed 6.7
9 J.Witten 6.6
10 G.Olsen 6.5
11 J.Cook 6.1
12 J.Graham 6
13 J.Fauria 4.9
14 J.Gresham 4.6
15 H.Miller 4.4
RANK NAME K WK8 PROJ
1 M.Prater 10
2 B.Walsh 10
3 K.Forbath 10
4 M.Crosby 9
5 G.Hartley 9
6 S.Hauschka 9
7 A.Henery 9
8 D.Bailey 9
9 M.Bryant 8
10 M.Nugent 8
11 S.Gostkowski 8
12 P.Dawson 7
13 S.Suisham 7
14 N.Folk 7
15 D.Carpenter 7
RANK NAME DEF WK8 PROJ
1 KC 12
2 SF 9
3 CAR 9
4 SEA 9
5 NO 8
6 NE 8
7 ATL 8
8 CIN 7
9 CLE 7
10 OAK 7
11 PHIL 7
12 TB 7
13 NYJ 7
14 PIT 7
15 GB 7

Week 6 Results

“I’m not conceited.  Conceit is a fault and I have no faults.”

-David Lee Roth

Teams using the Fantasy Football Draft Matrix (fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com) won 67% of their games in week six.  58% scored 100 points or more, and the average output was 102 points.  Remember the winning percentage for teams that score 100 points in a given week is 85%!

Now, when I say my projections were more accurate than this site or that site at this position or that position, I may not be clear on what that means exactly.  So, just to be clear, let me explain what I mean by “more accurate.”  Each week, I project the highest scoring players at each recognized fantasy football position according to the following break down:

  • 25 QB’S
  • 40 RB’S
  • 40 WR’S
  • 15 TE’S
  • 15 K’S
  • 15 DEF

Because, honestly… do you really need to know anything beyond that?  Do you really need to know what the 23rd ranked kicker is likely to score in a given week?  So I figure this breakdown is fair and thorough, and will give fantasy football players a realistic insight regarding the players they should start or sit.  If you don’t have a QB that’s among the top 25 in the league, you might want to take a dip in the free agency pool.  Philip Rivers is still out there.

My projections were off the charts this week.  But before I get into the statistic breakdown of my dominance over the forecasting competition, here’s a couple of head-scratching observations about the other guys.

NFL.com should really go by WTF.com, because I don’t know how you justify projecting Gronkowski would score 13.6 (when he was inactive), Glennon would score ZERO (as a starting QB, he scored 19.92 points, finishing 8th amongst all QB’s), and Brandon Marshall projected as the 58th best WR prospect in week 6.  Marshall– green shoes and all– scored over 20 points and was the second highest scoring receiver.

Going back to Glennon for a second, he actually out-scored Rodgers, Brees, and Manning.  No one saw that coming, but I knew that he’d score at least ONE point.  

Yahoo had Pierre Garcon projected as the 3rd highest scoring WR.  He finished 35th.

ESPN placed Torrey Smith as the second highest projected receiver, but Josh Gordon at 50th!  Over the last four weeks, Gordon has averaged the 5th most points amongst all WR’s.  

So again, I publish my projections here on this site every Thursday (in time for the Thursday night game) and update the projections frequently before the Sunday afternoon kickoff.  I take the difference between my projections and the players actual output and compare the average difference versus NFL.com, Yahoo.com, and ESPN.com.  The smaller the discrepancy, the more accurate the projections.  

Here’s how my week 6 projections fared:

  • More accurate than Yahoo at RB, WR, TE, and DEF.
  • More accurate than NFL at QB, RB, WR, TE, and DEF.
  • More accurate than ESPN at QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and DEF.

For more information, visit http://www.fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com

 

What to do about Julio?

I my previous post, I mentioned that I have Julio Jones on seven of my twenty-four teams.  That’s a lot of lost production.  Here’s I’d like to document my next step for those seven teams, as I’ll either be relying on techniques I employ as part of the fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com or seeking waiver wire/free agent pickups to save these doomed teams.  I’ve always said that the first round pretty much scripts itself in every draft; there’s very little deviation and guesswork in terms of who each teams is going to draft.  The second round is a big part of where each fantasy league is won or lost.  Typically, the most successful teams draft an elite WR in the second round.  In fact, based on last year’s study, 54% of the teams that led their league in scoring drafted at least one WR in the first two rounds.  The point is, losing Jones for the year is potential devastating for teams that use this time-tested drafting practice.  Well then, here’s what I got cookin’:

  1. Proposed a trade where I’d get Dez Bryant in exchange for Gronkowski and Amendola.  If I need to, I’ll replace Amendola with Josh Gordon in that same trade proposal.  Otherwise, my current receivers are: Gordon, Edelman, Amendola, Hartline, and Wallace.  There’s probably enough there to scape by. Or… Or.. ORRRRR… I could just pick up Justin Blackmon from FREE AGENCY.  Heck, I’ll do that and try to pull of the trade.  But as of now, I’ve lost Julio and gained Blackmon.  Not exactly a one-for-one swap, but it certainly reduces the sting of losing Julio.
  2. My second team with Julio has the following WR depth: H.Nicks. N.Washington, D.Moore, E.Royal, M.Wallace.  Arguably, the best available free agent WR’s in this league are: J.Simpson, G.Tate, E.Sanders, and R. Woods.  I have a little something for Robert Woods, but that’s hardly going to fill the void. I don’t believe in Terrance Williams just yet as my motto is “pick him up after two good weeks, start him after three.”  So I propose a trade where I’d give up D.Moore, E.Royal, M.Wallace, and F.Jackson for W.Welker.  That’s a lot to give up, but it doesn’t really hurt my team, as I’d still have H.Nicks, and N.Washington at WR (viable WR2 and WR3).  And though I love F.Jackson, I’d still have A.Foster, R.Bush, K.Moreno, and L.Miller in the backfield.  Plus I’d have two open roster spots to raid free agency.  Until I hear a trade response, I’ll drop Julio for Robert Woods.
  3. For my third trick, I decide to try to go for a straight RB for WR trade.  My backs are A.Foster, K.Moreno, G.Bernard, and F.Jackson.  I think Moreno can get me a top 15 WR, and Bernard can get me a top 20 WR.  I propose K.Moreno for J.Nelson OR, E.Decker OR, T.Smith.  I also propose G.Bernard for R.Wayne, OR L.Fitzgerald.  Hopefully, one of those five will click.  Otherwise, I dump Julio for Minnesota DEF b/c they’ve scored at least 9 points in three of their first four games, and they play the struggling Giants next week.  
  4. B.Powell, T.Hilton, and R.Gronkowski for Victor Cruz.  I still have A.Foster, F.Gore, and K.Moreno at RB and J.Thomas at TE.  Also proposed Calvin Johnson for T.Hilton, R.Gronkowksi, B.Powell, and K.Allen.  Also, I’d give up F.Gore for D.Thomas.
  5. Dropped Julio for P.Rivers from Free Agency because my usual QB starter Matt Ryan has a bye.  Otherwise, I’m not making a trade offer here because I have A.Johnson, T.Hilton, B.Hartline, H.Knicks, K.Thompkins, and M.Wallace at WR, and I’m confident that two or three of those guys will emerge as starters.  
  6. Vincent Brown from Free Agency.  
  7. Terrence Williams from Free Agency.  

This is definitely a critical time for fantasy football owners, as playoff teams are starting to emerge.  At fantasyfootballdraftmatrix.com, there’s a chapter dedicated to how to overcome a first round draft bust.  The same principle would apply to surviving a key injury to an elite player like Julio Jones.